Friday wraps up the work week with an elite 11-game featured slate locking at 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch, followed by a slim three-game featured slate locking at 6:40 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo MLB DFS picks today, with discounted Giants bats and SP1 Framber Valdez.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Primary Pitching Target: LHP Framber Valdez at Oakland Athletics — 3.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,800 | FanDuel $11,200 | Yahoo $54
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool likes both RHP Shohei Ohtani and LHP Framber Valdez in their respective West Coast matchups, though with Ohtani dealing with a blister issue on the middle finger of his pitching hand, he does have some risk of seeing his night cut short for a third straight mound appearance. Of course, that won’t be an issue until it is — but it is enough to give Valdez the nod as the primary pitcher tonight.
Yes, Valdez was knocked around for five runs in 6.1 innings during his last start in Anaheim against the Angels. However, that was entirely offset by a career-high-tying 13 strikeouts. In a fun twist, he also coaxed 13 whiffs from the Angels last July in Houston. Though his 54.6% ground ball rate is down dramatically from his elite 68.1% rate compiled during the prior two full seasons, his strikeout rate has surged to an electric 9.9 per nine innings. Last year Valdez led the league with 26 quality starts in 31 appearances, and he is among the league leaders again with 13 this season.
Oakland has scored the fewest runs in the league this season, and the A’s are 22 behind the Detroit Tigers despite playing three more games. In the seven games since the All-Star Break, they are averaging a paltry 3.6 runs per tilt, which is terrible.
Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Joe Ryan vs. Chicago White Sox — 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,200 | FanDuel $10,400 | Yahoo $42
Across his last half dozen outings, RHP Joe Ryan has been inconsistent, allowing a 5.39 ERA, a 5.39 xFIP and a dreadful 11 home runs in 34.2 innings. The silver lining is that, despite 2.9 home runs per nine innings during this stretch, he has struck out opposing hitters at an amazing clip of 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Five of the longballs came in one game against the All-Star-laden Braves in Atlanta.
Tonight the 27-year-old is facing a scuffling White Sox team that is light on power (.149 ISO) and heavy on the strikeout front (24.1%) over the last two seasons against right-handed pitchers. Gavin Sheets and leadoff man Andrew Benintendi are disciplined options from the left side of the plate, but the projected lineup is peppered with five other right-handed hitters who have struck out at an above-average rate for the last two seasons. That plays into the strengths of Ryan’s pitch mix, and he looks like a strong tournament option tonight.
Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. Kansas City Royals — 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $6,200 | FanDuel $8,000 | Yahoo $37
This is a good matchup for RHP Clarke Schmidt at his current salary across the DFS sites. The optimizers and point-per-dollar value hounds are going to be all over this, which in turn is driving up the popularity for the Yankees hurler. Clarke is a strong SP2 for cash games (H2Hs, double-ups, 3-mans, etc.) on DraftKings, though in tournaments, this is a terrific leverage situation.
Direct leverage can be had simply by rostering some of the better Kansas City bats. This is a little tricky since the Royals are not a good team, but the short list would be Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Salvador Perez, Maikel Garcia and maybe Nick Pratto as an extreme punt, though the opportunity cost is losing the first base slot. If Schmidt performs poorly, it will likely result in a couple of these hitters having good games. They are all available at reasonable salaries, and with one-third of the field rostering Schmidt on DraftKings, that is also one-third of the field that will not have the Royals, giving the double-boost. This works to a lesser extent on FanDuel and Yahoo, where Schmidt is projected to be on just 12% of all tournament rosters.
Alternative leverage simply by building lineups you like and then swapping out Schmidt for the likes of LHP Yusei Kikuchi in Seattle taking on his former team, LHP Alex Wood on the road in Washington against the Nationals or LHP Andrew Heaney in Texas facing his former team in the Dodgers.
Kikuchi and Wood have the better matchups, though it is a dice roll as to whether either of them closes out the fifth inning. Heaney has the tougher matchup, but Los Angeles has been scuffling at the plate and the Globe Life Park roof is likely to be closed in the sweltering Texas heat.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: San Francisco Giants at RHP Jake Irvin — 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has identified San Francisco as the best stack on DraftKings, and the Giants are in the top 3 on FanDuel and Yahoo. This is due to their matchup but also favorable salaries across the DFS sites. The franchise has long had the philosophy of going platoon-heavy, depending on the handedness of opposing pitchers. Tonight rookie RHP Jake Irvin will be toeing the rubber for the Nationals, and that is fortuitous since the best San Francisco options swing the stick from the left side of the plate.
Irvin has not been dreadful, but the lack of strikeouts and propensity for allowing extra-base hits have him constantly teetering on the brink of danger. Over his last four starts, spanning 19.2 innings, Irvin has allowed one longball in each game while striking out a paltry 11 on his way to a 5.48 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Washington has two lefties in the bullpen, but otherwise we should not see much of a pinch-hit risk for Joc Pederson, Blake Sabol, Mike Yastrzemski and Brett Wisely. Wilmer Flores is on a heater with four home runs in his last four games, and with Thairo Estrada and Brandon Crawford on the injured list and both LaMonte Wade Jr. and J.D. Davis dinged up, the super-utility infielder should be in the lineup.
If Wade and Davis return, Wade is another potential lefty if he is in the leadoff slot, though the team often lifts him in the latter half of the game for either a pinch-hitter or a defensive replacement. However, San Francisco is suddenly operating short of capacity. Davis has light-tower power, and if he is in the lineup, he will become the primary target, with Pederson, Flores, Yastrzemski and Sabol rounding out full stacks.
Other strong stacking options include both the Diamondbacks and Reds as they square off in the Great American Ballpark, with each team approaching a 5.5 implied run total. Additionally, the Yankees are a dreadful lineup these days, but the team does have a 5.1 implied run total against RHP Alec Marsh and the Kansas City bullpen.
Late Slate Target: Los Angeles Angels vs. RHP Johan Oviedo — 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
On the late slate, gamers are likely to be rolling with the Houston Astros in Oakland against LHP JP Sears. By no means will the Angels be overlooked, but they are not as fun to stack with Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon on the sidelines, and with Shohei Ohtani pitching, the DFS sites still have not figured out how to make him available as a hitter when he is also on the mound.
Over his last three starts, RHP Johan Oviedo has been all over the place, allowing eight runs to Milwaukee on July 1 but then holding the Giants to one run while striking out 10 last Saturday. The truth, of course, is somewhere in the middle, and the 25-year-old’s inconsistency is something we can target, as is his weakness of allowing extra-base hits. Tonight will be the 46th start for Oviedo, who spent three seasons bouncing up and down with the St. Louis Cardinals and Triple-A Memphis Redbirds before being sent to the Pirates for veteran LHP Jose Quintana and reliever Chris Stratton at the trade deadline last year.
Like many prospects, Oviedo saw his learning trajectory derailed by the 2020 pandemic. He did get 24.2 innings with the Cardinals that year, making the leap from Double-A in 2019, but it was clear he was not ready for The Show. Since then he has shown flashes of upside, but the clock is ticking and his main consistent attribute so far has been his inconsistency.
Youngsters Zach Neto and Mickey Moniak are likely to be hitting on either side of Ohtani in the order tonight, and they can be paired with Taylor Ward as the trio to target or by adding in Mike Moustakas or Hunter Renfroe for the all-or-nothing power piece of a full stack.
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Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Joey Gallo is just too tempting, and while he did not get a hit last night, at least he only struck out once in his three at-bats. Tonight in the sports wagering market, we can once more look to him, as his +340 home run odds are being filtered to the top with the new True Odds feature on OddsShopper. Tonight in his matchup against RHP Lance Lynn, it looks like that wager should be priced closer to +317 “true odds,” indicating a market inefficiency of 5%.
Lynn has been crushed by opposite-handed batsmen, allowing a .300 ISO in 455 righty-lefty matchups, which is not much better than a batting practice pitcher. This season, in 191 plate appearances against righties, Gallo does have a 40.8% strikeout rate, but he also has a .307 ISO, and something has to give in this matchup.
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Final Thoughts for Friday, July 21 | MLB DFS Picks
Boston looks like the biggest precipitation risk, and a postponement cannot be ruled out at this time. New York looks like it could have some early-inning rain, but the simple solve would be to push the start time back by an hour or so and get those extra concession dollars rolling in.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows, at 4:45 p.m. ET, brought to you by Sleeper Fantasy. New users sign up through this link and receive a first deposit match up to $100. Full details here.
