Sunday wraps up the weekend with the featured tournament action beginning at 1:35 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. For DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo MLB DFS picks today, look to RHP Tyler Glasnow on the road against the anemic Detroit offense.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Pitching Target: RHP Tyler Glasnow at Detroit Tigers — 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $11,000 | FanDuel $11,000 | Yahoo $57
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool is impressed with RHP Tyler Glasnow, who has notched more strikeouts than innings pitched in 11 of his 12 starts. The lone outlier was against the Texas Rangers, when he tallied six strikeouts in six innings. Glasnow suffered an oblique injury in spring training, which kept him sidelined until the end of May. Glasnow is averaging 12.6 strikeouts per nine innings, which is his lowest rate of the last four seasons. Do not despair, dear reader, the Motor City Kitties are running out a lineup that has struck out 25% of the time against right-handed hurlers over the last season and change.
If weather is an issue, pivoting to our next pitcher is a savvy strategy. Other options include RHP Charlie Morton in Chicago against the Cubs and RHP Brandon Woodruff in Milwaukee against the Pirates, though per comments from the Brewers, he is likely to be capped around 75 to 80 pitches as he returns from injury.
Mid-Afternoon Slate Pitching Target: RHP Zac Gallen at Minnesota Twins — 4.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,600 | FanDuel $10,600 | Yahoo $45
In case you haven’t noticed — and judging from the lack of attention RHP Zac Gallen gets in the DFS world, you probably hadn’t — the 28-year-old ace is currently +200 to win the National League Cy Young Award, with RHP Spencer Strider also at +200 and LHP Blake Snell a tick behind at +250 (lines courtesy of OddsShopper).
Gallen actually had better numbers last year, but he finished fifth in the voting. He has been a steady presence on the mound every five days for the Diamondbacks, and the Arizona ace has allowed one or fewer runs in 10 of his 23 starts. Minnesota has power in the lineup, but the Twins have a lot of strikeouts as well towards the back of the lineup, including Joey Gallo (39.9%, 549 plate appearances), Michael A. Taylor (27.5%, 523 PAs) and Willi Castro (24.3% 448 PAs), and if catcher Ryan Jeffers is in the lineup after starting on Saturday, he has struck out close to 30% over the last two years against right-handed pitchers.
The combination of limiting power (just over a strikeout per frame) and averaging just over six innings per start makes Gallen a solid play on both slates. LHP Andrew Heaney is also worthy of consideration, but it should be noted that the Miami Marlins have a 124 wRC+ this season against southpaws, which is the fifth best in the league and indicates they are scoring runs 24% more efficiently than the average team this year.
Late Slate Pitching Target: RHP Alex Cobb at Oakland Athletics — 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,200 | FanDuel $9,200 | Yahoo $39
There are just two games on the late slate this Sunday, so things are looking thin for those savage enough to do battle with a shallow player pool. Ultimately picking on the Oakland Athletics seems like a savvy strategy, with sinkerballer RHP Alex Cobb profiling well against the A’s. Cobb has allowed more than three runs only thrice in his 20 starts this season, and he has a low 3.05 ERA, which is the base mark he has posed in the last eight years.
The 35-year-old has a stellar 60.1% ground ball rate across his last 1,107 batters faced, with a palatable 23% strikeout rate. The worm-burners tend to limit power from opposing sluggers, and those same eleven-hundred batsmen has a combined .108 ISO over the last two seasons. On Saturday night, RHP Ross Stripling cruised through 5.1 innings, with seven whiffs, one walk and one earned run. Cobb is better than Stripling. Enjoy!
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Houston Astros vs. LHP Carlos Rodon — 4.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
Pop quiz, hotshot: Who received the sixth-most votes in the National League Cy Young Award race last year? Yup, it was LHP Carlos Rodon, who absolutely crushed during his lone season in the senior circuit. This year a forearm strain delayed his debut for the Yankees until early-July, and the five outings have been far from stellar. Across 24.1 innings, Rodon has issued 16 free passes, ceded half a dozen longballs, and suffered a 6.29 ERA and 1.48 WHIP while managing to collect only 20 strikeouts. Velocity has not been the problem, as he is around where he was last season; it has been location and control issues. While he is likely to improve down the stretch, it is a tall order taking on the Houston Astros.
Look to the bottom of the order for differentiation, or as cheap one-offs, as outfielder Chas McCormick (.249 ISO, 199 PAs) and catcher Martin Maldonado (.253 ISO, 173 PAs) are cheap power options. The obvious plays are at the top of the order with Jose Altuve (.277 ISO, 214 PAs), Jeremy Pena (.186 ISO, 273 PAs) and slumping Alex Bregman, who is my personal favorite this afternoon, as he as at least had some power against southpaws over the last 30 days despite a multi-month slump reaching back into last year.
Then we have Kyle Tucker (.236 ISO, 386 PAs) and Yordan Alvarez (.279 ISO, 295 PAs), who are, of course, elite in same-handed matchups.
Mid-Afternoon Slate Target: Arizona Diamondbacks at LHP Dallas Keuchel — 4.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stack Tool likes the matchup for Arizona this afternoon, though there is some precipitation concern. The Twins have turned to former Cy Young Award winner LHP Dallas Keuchel to replace RHP Joe Ryan, who was just placed on the injured list. Last year Keuchel logged a combined 60.2 innings for the Diamondbacks, Rangers and White Sox. He was dreadful with a 9.20 ERA, though his 5.49 xERA indicates that he was merely horrible but dealt with bad luck. Keuchel made six starts for Triple-A St. Paul and should be able to eat some innings today.
Look to the top of the order, with Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, Emmanuel Rivera and recently acquired Tommy Pham as the core four in all stack types this afternoon. For those feeling frisky, All-Star Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and veteran shortstop Nick Ahmed are the candidates for five-man stacks.
If the weather situation looks to be too dicey, then the last-minute pivot can be to the Milwaukee Brewers, who have similar positions and salaries with Christian Yelich, Carlos Santana, Willy Adames and Sal Frelick. The Brew Crew is facing enigmatic RHP Johan Oviedo, and it is a fine emergency alternative in all formats.
Late Slate Target: Los Angeles Angels vs. RHP Bryce Miller — 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
The Angels are squaring off against RHP Bryce Miller in Anaheim, where game-time temperatures are going to be in the low-90s and accompanied by an 8 to 12 mph breeze out to centerfield. We could see Miller hitting the “rookie wall,” as he has allowed six earned runs in each of his last two appearances. This season Miller had 19.2 innings at Double-A prior to making the jump to The Show. His 100.1 combined innings are behind only the 133.2 from last year, which were mostly acquired in Single-A ball. Though his velocity has been about the same, his location has been questionable and led to half a dozen longballs in these two most recent efforts.
Look to the batters swinging the stick from the left side of the plate first, with veteran Mike Moustakas and rookie Mickey Moniak joining Shohei Ohtani as the trio to target. Brandon Drury is back from the injured list, and he, Hunter Renfroe and the recently reacquired C.J. Cron all boast light-tower power against same-handed hurlers.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Move quickly on this opportunity, as RHP Brandon Woodruff has an over/under of 16.5 outs currently available on BetMGM. Looking at the True Odds feature on OddsShopper, we can see that his “true odds” of recording 16 outs or fewer are -129, which means the -110 line that is currently available has nearly an 8% inefficiency, which is like getting a booster from the sportsbook without doing any of the legwork.
Woodruff suffered a subscapular strain of his right shoulder during his second start of the season all the way back in April. He has made three rehabilitation starts in the minors, ramping up his pitch count from 32 to 52 and finishing with 72 pitches on Tuesday. There are several articles indicating that the team is looking for him to have a soft cap of 75 to 80 pitches this afternoon.
Yes, the Brewers would like to win the National League Central and are currently 1.5 games ahead of the Reds and 2.5 up on the Cubs, but they are not going to risk their 30-year-old pitcher, as they will need him making starts down the stretch to make and advance in the playoffs. Keep in mind that 15 outs is five innings, so this wager means that Woodruff needs to get two outs in the sixth to surpass the over.
Last year when he was healthy and averaging 94 pitches per start, Woodruff had 17 outs in basically 75% of his appearances, but that was with another 20 to 25 pitches than what we are likely to see from him this afternoon.
TLDR: I would be surprised if Woodroof comes out for the sixth inning today.
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Final Thoughts for Sunday, August 6 | MLB DFS Picks
Sunday brings rain across the Midwest, with the games in Cleveland, Detroit, Minnesota and St. Louis all impacted to varying degrees. Be sure to keep tabs on the forecasts from your favorite DFS weather resources.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show, at 12:30 p.m. ET, brought to you by BetMGM. New users sign up through this link and receive 30 days of Stokastic+ Platinum and up to $1,000 as a second chance insurance if your first wager loses. Full details here.
