One of the fastest-changing positions in fantasy football, quarterback has become a position where drafts are won and lost. With training camps set to start and rosters taking shape, let’s get into this year’s quarterbacks most likely to bust for 2023 NFL Best Ball leagues, using projections and Stokastic’s Best Ball rankings.
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2023 NFL Best Ball Quarterbacks
Best Ball Quarterback: Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys)
Dak Prescott has an ADP of 104.9 on Underdog Fantasy. This puts him at QB12 on the platform. Last year, Prescott completed 66.2% of his passes for 2,860 yards, 23 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. His 7.3 yards per attempt marked the second fewest of his career, and Prescott finished as the QB17 in points per game.
Despite the poor finish last year, Prescott has shown an elite ceiling in the past. In 2021, Prescott completed 68.8% of his passes for 4,449 yards, 37 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, with 7.5 yards per attempt. This propelled him to a QB9 finish in points per game.
This year, the Cowboys will experience a few changes on offense. While they brought in Brandin Cooks, the team lost tight end Dalton Schultz. They also let offensive coordinator Kellen Moore walk in favor of Mike McCarthy calling plays. McCarthy has a checkered past as play caller, with a reputation that he fails to adapt. Moore consistently had Dallas within the top 3 offenses in terms of plays per game. In 2017, McCarthy led the Packers to 62.4 plays per game (20th) and a 61.4% pass rate (seventh). It looks like Dallas will still be pass heavy, but its play volume likely will drop.
While Prescott’s passing numbers could experience positive regression based on a larger sample of efficient play, his rushing numbers have declined throughout his career. After rushing for at least 277 yards in his each of his first four seasons, Prescott has failed to reach 200 in three straight. Some of this likely has to do with the severe ankle injury that ended his 2020 season. Whatever the cause, Prescott isn’t running like he did early in his career.
The final nail in the coffin for Prescott at his current cost is the plentitude of available alternatives. Kirk Cousins comes off the board as QB13. He occupies the same pocket-passing role in a more efficient offense. Last year, Cousins finished as the QB8 in points per game. Daniel Jones is QB14 by ADP. Not only does Jones run, but he experienced a career year passing in his first year under Brian Daboll and finished as the QB9 in points per game.
Stokastic’s rankings currently slot Prescott in as QB14, well below his ADP. For those who have CeeDee Lamb or another pass catcher on the roster, it is fine to prioritize Prescott over those other players. However, he is being drafted at his ceiling right now.
Best Ball Quarterback: Russell Wilson (Denver Broncos)
Russell Wilson has an ADP of 132.9, making him the QB18 in Underdog drafts. Last year, Wilson severely regressed, completing just 60.5% of his 483 pass attempts for 3,524 yards (7.3 yards per attempt), 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Like Prescott, Wilson no longer runs, making him dependent on these passing stats.
Speaking to that point, Wilson rushed for 183 yards and 277 yards over the last two years. His 43 and 55 rushing attempts were the two lowest numbers of his career. Even from a passing perspective, Wilson began to show decline in his final seasons with Seattle.
This year, Denver changed head coaches, moving to Sean Payton. While Payton should be expected to improve the offense, this doesn’t necessarily mean Wilson will be a primary beneficiary. Longtime Denver beat reporter Cecil Lammey expects the offense to center around the run game. This tracks with Payton’s final seasons in New Orleans as well. The Saints ran 61.8 plays per game (23rd) and passed 51.5% of the time (30th) in 2021.
Like Prescott, this also comes down to alternatives. Coming off the board behind Wilson, Jordan Love, Kenny Pickett, Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud all come with more rushing upside and a similar floor because of that. More importantly, all can be drafted outside the top 150, while Wilson requires a pick around 130.
Stokastic’s rankings currently slot Wilson in as the QB19, well behind ADP.
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Best Ball Quarterback: Derek Carr (New Orleans Saints)
New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr has an ADP of 146.9, making him the 19th quarterback drafted on average. Coming over to New Orleans this offseason, many believe Carr will experience a career resurgence with the Saints. However, there is cause for concern for best ball purposes.
Last year, Carr completed 60.8% of his 502 pass attempts for 3,522 yards (7.0 yards per attempt), 24 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Carr also offers very little rushing upside, with 102 rushing yards last year. These stats propelled Carr to the QB17 in points per game. In fact, over the last four years, Carr has never finished higher than the QB13.
While a QB15 to 17 finish may seem like a strong value, consider the distribution of Carr’s points. Last year, Carr’s points equated to roughly 14.6 points per game. This also came with weapons like Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller in Las Vegas. At best, he makes a lateral move to New Orleans. While the Saints have Chris Olave, the rest of their skill position players come with major questions. Michael Thomas hasn’t played in the better part of three years, Rashid Shaheed has yet to carve out a full-time role, and tight end won’t be close talent-wise to what Waller provided.
From an offensive perspective, the Saints don’t project to be anything special. Last year they ran 59.7 plays per game (25th) and passed 54.2% of the time (21st). They will also have to deal with a likely suspension for Alvin Kamara to start the year.
Stokastic’s rankings currently slot Carr in at QB23 due to the viable alternatives around him. When trying to win best ball leagues, shooting for upside in players like Stroud or Young makes more sense.
