MLB Strikeout Props: Fade Three Pitchers Making Road Starts (August 6)

The big Sunday slate is coming up fast, so there is no time to dilly dally. A lot of sportsbooks have done a solid job of setting lines, leading to some sparse value in the MLB strikeout prop market. Luckily, MLB Bet Pro has found a handful of +EV plays to build our bankroll today. Let’s get into the best props for this afternoon.

But remember that these are just three of the +EV MLB player props on MLB Bet Pro; the model has several other options, which you can access by signing up now to get Stokastic’s Bet Pro offer: One trial month for $24.95 that gets you access to MLB Bet Pro, plus access to our Premium Chalkboard!

Free MLB Strikeout Props & Picks From MLB Bet Pro | Aug. 6

3. Johan Oviedo O/U 5.5 Strikeouts

The Brewers as opponents have frequently given bumps to pitcher strikeout lines this season, but lately it has not been deserved. Over the last 15 days, Milwaukee has struck out at a below-league-average clip and has improved its run scoring to be slightly better than average in this time. Plus, the Brewers are playing hosts in this one and getting their stud pitcher Brandon Woodruff back.

Meanwhile, Oviedo is essentially a run-of-the-mill strikeout pitcher. He has a modest 20.4% strikeout rate and 8.0 per nine, which paces him to reach his sixth whiff after completing the seventh. And though Oviedo has gone that far in five starts this year and hit this over in three of those, he only has seven overs total in 22 starts (31.8%) and only two of those came without at least getting two outs in the seventh. If he doesn’t work deep into the game, Oviedo is unlikely to approach 5.5 on the road.

MLB Bet Pro projects Oviedo for 5.0 strikeouts, leading to a 62% win rate and 2% for the under.

Best MLB Player Prop: Johan Oviedo Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160, FanDuel)

React App

2. Tyler Glasnow O/U 8.5 Strikeouts

Glasnow unders are becoming a regular feature in the MLB Bet Pro model, as he continues to merit an 8.5 line but has regularly danced around it despite elite strikeout metrics. Glasnow’s 12.6 strikeouts per nine and 34.5% overall rate are unassailable; however, even with those numbers and improving longevity, Glasnow only has one over on 8.5 in his last five games. That included three starts of 7.0 innings. He is also rarely smashing the line like his rates would suggest, with just two games total of double-digit strikeouts this season and only one nine-strikeout game.

As an all-around pitcher, Glasnow is absolutely finding his form, and that should continue against a weak Tigers lineup. That said, the strikeouts have been sacrificed a bit of late in the process, and the 8.5 line is a touch too lofty. MLB Bet Pro has Glasnow at 7.4 strikeouts today, and the under on 8.5 is earning a 3% EV and a 58% win expectancy.

Best MLB Player Prop: Tyler Glasnow Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-128, FanDuel)

Latest MLB DFS Content

1. Austin Gomber O/U 4.5 Strikeouts

One would expect a subpar starter who regularly pitches at Coors Field to have bad home splits — and Gomber certainly fits the bill. But as luck would have it, his numbers on the road are not very good either. Gomber’s 15.7% overall strikeout rate is miserable and being weighed down to a degree by his 15.2% strikeout rate at home; but his road whiff rate is still only 16.5%, which is also near the bottom of MLB. He allows less offense away from Coors, but only to about an average degree — .764 OPS, .186 ISO, 104 OPS+. Gomber is a gettable pitcher everywhere he toes the rubber.

And despite their disappointing place in the standings, the Cardinals are a formidable team that does not strike out much. With the power in this lineup — particularly right-handed power — Gomber is a clear risk for an early exit here. All told, he has made nine road starts in 2023 and has gone over 4.5 strikeouts only twice. MLB Bet Pro projects another under, giving him 3.8 strikeouts and a 61% chance of falling short, leading to a slate-high 7% EV on this prop.

Best MLB Player Prop: Austin Gomber Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-134, FanDuel)

Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.