Tuesday brings a mega 12-game featured slate, locking with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. For DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo MLB DFS picks today, LHP Blake Snell and RHP Corbin Burnes make an intriguing one-two pitching punch.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Primary Pitching Target: LHP Blake Snell vs. Pittsburgh Pirates — 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,000 | FanDuel $11,000 | Yahoo $50
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool still likes LHP Blake Snell, even with his salary cresting to an elite level across the three main MLB DFS sites. This has been a career season for the 30-year-old southpaw, with a pristine 2.67 ERA, adequate 1.28 WHIP and stellar 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings. Through his 20 starts, he has allowed more than three earned runs on two occasions (4 and 6), with the most recent occurring all the way back on May 19. Last month, Snell took care of the Pirates in Pittsburgh, limiting the hosts to a pair of runs while striking out 10 hitters.
Snell has reached double-digit whiffs five times this season, and that is in play again tonight. The Pirates did put up eight runs yesterday, but that was just baseball being baseball. Tonight’s projected lineup has youngsters Henry Davis, Jared Triolo, Endy Rodriguez, Nick Gonzales and Liover Peguero, who have 105 career plate appearances against lefties in The Show. Even better, very few of those have been against hurlers with the wicked pitching portfolio proffered by Snell.
Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Corbin Burnes vs. Cincinnati Reds — 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,200 | FanDuel $10,300 | Yahoo $43
It seems as if RHP Corbin Burnes has found his comfort zone this season after some early struggles. Though he is not quite at the form that saw him win the 2021 National League Cy Young Award, or even last year when he led the league in starts and strikeouts, he is close to that level. Through a scheduling quirk, the 28-year-old has faced the Pirates and Reds two times each in his last four appearances.
During this stretch, he has tallied 27 innings, an outstanding 1.33 ERA, 2.43 FIP and 36 strikeouts against just one home run and no other extra-base hits. Though his 15-inning scoreless streak is likely to end tonight, Burnes still has the potential upside of a quality start and double-digit strikeouts if everything goes his way.
Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Alex Cobb vs. Oakland Athletics — 3.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,600 | FanDuel $8,900 | Yahoo $40
Tonight RHP Alex Cobb and the Giants are -275 home favorites as they take on the cross-Bay rival Oakland Athletics. Cobb is far from sneaky tonight, as he projects just inside the top 5 most popular pitchers on each of the main DFS sites, though with him getting 15% projected popularity on FanDuel and something in the 25% range on the two-pitcher sites, we can still easily be above the field for this cherry matchup.
Cobb is an elite ground ball artist with a 60% rate over his last 1,063 batters faced and a nearly nonexistent .102 ISO and .308 wOBA. There are also just enough strikeouts that he can be a fantasy stalwart when he is in the zone. Oakland will be rolling out a lefty-laden lineup, which does decrease the strikeout potential for Cobb, who has an 18.6% whiff rate against opposite-handed hitters over the last two seasons. On the flipside, the most “dangerous” bats are JJ Bleday and Seth Brown, who should not be scaring savvy gamers away from Cobb.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Cleveland Guardians vs. RHP Zack Greinke — 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has the Cleveland Guardians as a top-3 stacking option in the matchup against RHP Zack Greinke. Switch-hitter Jose Ramirez is nearly matchup-proof, but today we can look to him as more than a one-off. Greinke is in his swan song season, and after some success last year, he was deserving of a one-year deal to wind things down with the team that drafted him. The strikeouts are gone, with 5.74 per nine innings over his last 404.2 innings and now that the bag of tricks is nearly empty, it is time to pick on Greinke.
Cleveland is always a risky stack, as the offensive production is tightly consolidated with Ramirez, Josh Naylor and Josh Bell. That is fine on FanDuel, but on DraftKings and Yahoo, it is a decision point, with the Joshes both holding first base eligibility. Look to the lefties as secondary options, as youngsters Will Brennan and Bo Naylor should be in the lineup and, of course, permanent leadoff man Steven Kwan has very little power, but he does at least get on base, which bodes well for the rest of the stack behind him.
The other risk with the Guardians is that this concentrated talent in the middle of the lineup leaves the team wide open for three-up, three-down innings that a savvy veteran like Greinke could still exploit. Limiting this team to a trio and relegating them to secondary-stack status looks like a savvy strategy tonight.
Evening Slate Target: Chicago Cubs at RHP Michael Kopech — 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Tonight the White Sox are hosting the Cubs as the two Chicago franchises square off on a warm evening where temperatures will be in the upper-80s. On the mound for the home team is RHP Michael Kopech, who has had some serious command issues, with 24 walks in his last 18.2 innings, spanning five starts. He has been lucky to survive with a 5.30 ERA, as his 8.27 FIP indicates he has had some fortuitous hit sequencing, which has allowed him to survive four home runs and nine overall extra-base hits during this stretch.
Dansby Swanson (heel/foot) has returned to the lineup, which improves the Cubs to around six-deep, with Mike Tauchman (actually not bad as a DFS option when batting at the top of the order), youngster Miles Mastrobuoni and whichever catcher is behind the plate as the also-rans.
Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger, Seiya Suzuki and Nico Hoerner are the core four, along with Swanson and Tauchman. This provides ample ways to stack the Cubs, with a variety of price points included.
Late Slate Target: San Francisco Giants vs. LHP Ken Waldichuk — 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET
Once more the San Francisco Giants are popping up on the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool for a nice combination of salary and potential fantasy production. This season LHP Ken Waldichuk has performed both as a starter and a reliever, though 13 of his 23 appearances have resulted in at least three innings of work, including his last two, where he logged 3.2 and 4.1 innings.
During their six-game losing streak, San Francisco has scored just nine runs after putting up 32 in the first five tilts following the All-Star Break. Thairo Estrada is on the injured list, and with him out of the picture, the three best hitters are a trio of former Mets in J.D. Davis, Wilmer Flores and Michael Conforto.
Despite the excellent matchup against struggling southpaw Waldichuk, there is also pinch-hit risk for several of the batters swinging the stick from the right side of the plate. 2021 National League Manager of the Year Gabe Kapler loves to tinker with the lineup to gain the platoon advantage. Five of the seven relievers in the Oakland bullpen, excluding closer RHP Trevor May, are right-handed, which means we could see situational substitutions of Austin Slater, Luis Matos, David Villar and even Flores, with lefties Joc Pederson, LaMonte Wade Jr. and potentially Mike Yastrzemski coming off the bench.
Just be cognizant of this risk when rolling with the “discounted” Giants and understand the rest, makeup and available options in opposing bullpens.
Latest MLB DFS Content
- MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: SP1 Nathan Eovaldi + Texas Bats (May 2)
- MLB DFS Punt Plays: Jordan Beck, Adrian Houser & More
- DraftKings Fantasy Baseball Cheat Sheet: Best Picks From MLB DFS Contest Sims | Aaron Judge (May 2 Main Slate)
- MLB DFS: Stokastic’s Tom Kennedy With TWO DraftKings MLB Wins in One Night | How the Sims Helped Him Out
- Stokastic’s NEW MLB Package: Use What Our Pros Are Using to Win Big
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Though the Twins did not make it into the recommended stacks portion of this article, they do have some hitters worthy of our consideration in the sports wagering market tonight. Currently Alex Kirilloff and Max Kepler have inefficient lines, which are highlighted when using the True Odds feature on OddsShopper. We can see that this lefty duo has +900 and +575 odds, respectively, to hit a home run, but with “true odds” of +777 and +525, there is currently a 12% and 8% discrepancy in the market.
This season RHP George Kirby has ceded a .200 ISO to left-handed hitters, along with nine of his 14 home runs. These are longshot wagers, so it is key to utilize OddsShopper in helping find the best numbers available, which can help sustain and grow bankrolls.
Did you know that you can get one free month of Stokastic+ Platinum for signing up and making your first bet at BetMGM? Claim here today!
Final Thoughts for Tuesday, July 25 | MLB DFS Picks
Things are a little dodgy across the East Coast, with Boston, New York, Philadelphia (early game not on the main slate) and Washington all looking at various degrees of precipitation risk. Most of the games should be safe from a postponement, but delays are certainly possible — and suspended action is always a possibility.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock, at 4:45 p.m. ET, brought to you by BetMGM. New users sign up through this link and receive 30 FREE days of Stokastic+ Platinum AND first bet backing up to $1,000. Full details here.
