MLB Player Props: Andrew Abbott Starting Career With a Bang (July 25)

Today’s MLB slate has every team in action, and unlike yesterday, some real value spots have emerged in the player props market. Several are getting over 4% EV in the MLB Bet Pro model — especially in the Reds-Brewers matchup — so let’s dive into the projections and find some leverage spots for bets to make on Tuesday games.

But remember that these are just three of the +EV MLB player props on MLB Bet Pro; the model has dozens of other options, which you can access by signing up now to get Stokastic’s Bet Pro offer: One trial month for $24.95 that gets you access to MLB Bet Pro, plus access to our Premium Chalkboard!

Free MLB Props & Picks From MLB Bet Pro | July 25

3. William Contreras O/U 1.5 Total Bases

The first two bets have a small degree of correlation, taking the under here with Contreras and the over with his opponent’s strikeouts.

Contreras’ power numbers have taken a bit of a dip with his move to Milwaukee, as his slugging has dropped about 70 points from last year and his ISO about 60. And though he is striking out at a lower clip, he is hitting ground balls at the highest rate of his career and fly balls at the lowest. going against Reds stud rookie Andrew Abbott is not likely to give Contreras a boost to those stats.

Yes, there is a bit of luck behind Abbott’s gaudy numbers through nine career starts. His 4.07 FIP against a 2.10 ERA is indicative of that, as is his 44.2% fly ball rate despite his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) allowed being below .200. However, Abbott is also striking a lot of hitters out, averaging 9.2 per nine and posting a 26.8% overall rate. Meanwhile, Contreras has only registered multiple total bases in 31 of 77 starts (40.3%), the majority of which were multi-hit games. With Abbott allowing just over five hits per nine innings (league average is 8.5), two Contreras hits will be tough to get to.

MLB Bet Pro projects Contreras for 1.3 total bases, giving under 1.5 a 4% EV.

Best MLB Player Prop: William Contreras Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130, BetMGM)

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2. Andrew Abbott O/U 5.5 Strikeouts

Again, Abbott is rolling to start his career. His strikeout numbers were laid out above (9.2 per nine, 26.8% rate), as was the potential pitfalls with him being a fly ball pitcher. That said, this Brewers lineup is ripe for the picking.

Milwaukee strikes out at the fourth-highest clip in the league and also has a bottom-10 fly ball rate, so it both works to Abbott’s strikeout prowess and lacks the ability to take advantage of his weakness. There is obviously the concern of Abbott’s lone blowup start coming against these Brewers (six runs in 4.1 innings), but he also struck out six in that one. In fact, he has struck out at least six in six of his nine starts, including a pair of double-digit games, and he also finished the sixth in all but two outings. If he does so again, Abbott’s per-nine rate paces him to comfortably clear 5.5 strikeouts.

MLB Bet Pro projects this line to be somewhat close, but Abbott is still getting 5.8 strikeouts in the model, so the over on 5.5 has a 56% win expectancy and 5% EV.

Best MLB Player Prop: Andrew Abbott Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-117, BetRivers)

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1. George Kirby O/U 6.5 Strikeouts

While Abbott faces the No. 4 strikeout opponent in MLB, Kirby gets the honors of facing the top team tonight. No one strikes out more than the Twins, and they paid off over bets on a lofty 7.5 line for Luis Castillo last night. The difference, however, is Kirby lags far behind both Castillo and Abbott when it comes to strikeouts.

Kirby has only eclipsed 6.5 in six of his 19 starts this year (31.6%), and given his below-average strikeout rate of 21.7% and per-nine mark of 7.7, the matchup appears to be the only reason Kirby’s line is as high as it is. He is also pitching in Minneapolis, and Kirby’s strikeout rate goes from mediocre to terrible (17.3%) away from Seattle. Of his six overs on 6.5 strikeouts, only one came on the road, and he only beat the line by half a strikeout in that one.

MLB Bet Pro projects Kirby for 5.4 strikeouts today, and the under on 6.5 has a slate-high 9% expected ROI.

Best MLB Player Prop: George Kirby Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-130, PointsBet)

Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.