Tuesday brings a mega-slate with all 30 teams in action and a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups for today — highlighted by an off-the-board Boston stack and a plethora of pitching possibilities.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Shohei Ohtani vs. Chicago White Sox — 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $11,300 | FanDuel $10,800 | Yahoo $52
Per the Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool, pitching is plentiful tonight, with a variety of options at different price points. It is a virtual coinflip for SP1 honors, with RHPs Kevin Gausman and Shohei Ohtani in home matchups against middling offenses. Looking at the American League Cy Young Award race favorites on OddsShopper, we can see that Gausman is in the breakaway group of four, with Ohtani leading the chase pack after a slight gap.
For those supporting Gausman, do not forget about the potential to ride with Ohtani on the late slate. This season, Chicago has been a bottom-5 team against right-handed pitching, with a 90 wRC+ and power (.158 ISO) and strikeouts (22.5%) that are middling at best. Additionally, the White Sox’s best hitters are right-handed, which means they will not have the platoon advantage against Ohtani, who continues to rack up strikeouts at an 11.8-per-nine-innings rate, which is behind only fellow righty Spencer Strider (14.3) and slightly ahead of Gausman (11.6).
In his last four pitching performances, Ohtani has taken on the Dodgers and Seattle at home and faced the Rangers and Astros on the road. In these 24 combined innings against some of the best offense in the league, he has a 3.75 ERA, 27 strikeouts and just two home runs allowed, and for those who are curious, Ohtani has hit two home runs himself in these four appearances.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Bryan Woo vs. Washington Nationals — 3.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $6,900 | FanDuel $8,900 | Yahoo $25
On FanDuel, Ohtani and Gausman are clearly the cream of the crop given the way salaries have been assigned. RHP Yu Darvish ($9,300) at Pittsburgh and LHP Framber Valdez ($11,200) are the countermoves and the next two pitchers who are the most likely to earn bonus points for a quality start on the blue site.
Rookie RHP Bryan Woo is fine for tournaments, though it would be a surprise if he closed out the sixth inning and thus is a far better play on DraftKings and Yahoo for the significant salary savings and his strikeout potential. Woo was knocked around for six runs by the Rangers in Texas during his big league debut, but the 23-year-old has been solid in his other three outings, including tough road matchups against the Yankees and Angels.
Seattle selected Woo in the sixth round of the 2021 MLB Draft after he spent three years at Cal Poly in the Big West Conference. Though his results were mediocre at best, he did flash enough with his fastball to warrant a look as a reliever. Like a lot of early draft picks, Woo was given a chance to be a starter, and he was decent in 16 efforts across various levels of Single-A, averaging 3.2 innings per start, but the 13.3 strikeouts per nine innings were impressive — even at the lowest professional levels.
Woo began this season in Double-A, and after 44 innings and 59 strikeouts in nine starts, Seattle slotted him in the rotation to replace LHP Marco Gonzales, who strained the flexor tendon in his pitching arm. When he returns, Woo may stick around as a reliever and occasional spot starter, though he is already at his career high for innings pitched at any level. That does not impact our decision making for today, and the salary and matchup are too tempting to forgo Woo on DraftKings and Yahoo, where he is an excellent SP2.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: LHP Martin Perez vs. Detroit Tigers — 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $5,700 | FanDuel $8,000 | Yahoo $29
Today LHP Martin Perez is similar to Woo in that he is a vastly better play on DraftKings and Yahoo than on FanDuel. Typically Perez is able to limit the opposing team with his high ground ball rate while providing enough innings to qualify for the win. Most seasons it is rare for him to allow more than four runs in a game, though that has already happened three times this season, with seven allowed in road matchups against both the Angels and Rays and another six in Detroit against tonight’s opponent. In 10 of his remaining 12 starts, he allowed two or fewer runs. He allowed more than four runs four times in 32 (13%) starts last year, in 2021 it was three in 36 (8%), and during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season it was two of 12 (17%). All told, that works out to 12 games with five or more earned runs in his last 95 (13%) starts.
While Woo has the better strikeout upside, Perez is a proven pitcher who has a better chance of qualifying for the win. There is no need to consider Perez on FanDuel with the single-pitcher requirement.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Boston Red Sox vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara — 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
In a wild plot twist, last year’s National League Cy Young Award winner has fallen so far that he is the recommended pitcher to target with EVERY team in action. Such is the season that has befallen RHP Sandy Alcantara. The 27-year-old earned the hardware after impressing voters with a league-leading 228.2 innings, 886 batters faced and six complete games, with his 24 quality starts being just two behind league leader LHP Framber Valdez. The other key metric for ballot casters was a pristine 2.28 ERA, which was the fifth best in the league.
However, one key ingredient is missing from the preceding paragraph, which should already be known by DFS gamers, and that is the lack of strikeouts. Last year, Alcantara managed just 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings, and while the average starter would be thrilled with that, it basically means he does not have any tricks other than dogged determination that can work himself out of jams.
Even though Boston stalwarts like Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez are now in the National League West, this has been a wildly consistent Red Sox crew with a lot more plate discipline than expected, which has helped burn through the pitch counts of opposing starters. The first four regulars in the batting order rarely strike out, and while they do not boast light-tower power, they have plenty of extra-base upside. Alex Verdugo (12.5%), Justin Turner (15.9%), Masataka Yoshida (11.4%) and Rafael Devers (17.8%) offer little in the way of strikeouts and are constantly putting the ball in play.
That should amplify the weaknesses of Alcantara and also provide the proverbial ducks on the pond when boppers Adam Duvall and Tristan Casas get their turn at the plate. The combination of reasonable salaries and sub-5% projected popularity have the Red Sox well positioned for Tuesday’s large-field tournaments.
Evening Slate Target: Philadelphia Phillies at RHP Jameson Taillon — 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
This season RHP Jameson Taillon has been a frequent subject of this article series, and here we are once again. Things have been so bleak for the 31-year-old veteran that the Cubs skipped his last start to allow him “time to clear his head,” which means the next horrific outing could lead to an ignominious assignment in the minors to “work on some things” through the All-Star Break.
The 6.71 ERA is not too far off of reality, as he also has a 5.18 FIP, 5.19 xFIP and 5.58 xERA. More damning is the lack of strikeouts, with the veteran righty recording only 20 in his last 34 innings spanning seven appearances. Yes, that means he has averaged fewer than three strikeouts per start since the middle of May.
When we say load ’em up, we mean everyone in the lineup tonight. Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos and J.T. Realmuto are the obvious options, but on the evening sub-slate, Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, Brandon Marsh and Kody Clemens can be employed as a secondary stack as leverage against their more popular teammates in the same delectable matchup.
Late Slate Target: Seattle Mariners vs. RHP Jake Irvin — 5.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool likes Seattle for a nice combination of flexible salaries and lack of traction on the main slate with every team in action. The Mariners also rate out favorably in the late-slate player pool against scuffling RHP Jake Irvin. Even though he is right-handed, the 26-year-old veteran produces stat lines that are easily confused with a “crafty lefty” who is a decade older. This is a kind way of saying he lacks consistent strikeouts while giving up enough power that his night can be shortened when the inevitable extra-base hit occurs and there are multiple runners on base. Irvin is a classic two-pitch decision tree, and until he develops a third pitch with any success, hitters can wait on either his fastball (59.1%) or curve (30.4%) in their preferred zone location.
Look to the M’s with above-average power from either side of the plate. Though Irvin has avoided longball issues for the most part, they are lurking, and he has allowed his share of extra-base hits. Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez and catcher Cal Raleigh are the trio to target, with leadoff man J.P. Crawford and third baseman Eugenio Suarez (each hitting a home run last night) rounding out full stacks.
For the featured slate, Seattle is a solid secondary stacking option, with first baseman Ty France or outfielder Jarred Kelenic being used with an adjacent teammate or two for a mini stack that has extreme differentiation potential.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
One of the best wagers currently identified by the new true odds feature from OddsShopper is Xander Bogaerts over 0.5 total RBIs. Currently this bet is available in various sports wagering markets, with the best line listed at +170. When compared with the +147 of the true odds feature, we can see that Bogaerts is getting nearly a 10% boost from this inefficient line. That has fallen into our lap without needing to chase down an actual “booster” promo ourselves.
Bogaerts has a long history of success against southpaws, and though he has just six plate appearances against LHP Rich Hill, he is 1-for-3 with three walks. This is too small of a sample size to provide actionable information, but it is good to see the selective plate discipline. The loaded lineup in front of Bogaerts should give him at least one or two chances of drawing a plate appearance with a runner on base — and of course, he could always hit a home run and earn the RBI himself.
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Final Thoughts for Tuesday, June 27 | MLB DFS Picks
New York is the one matchup that looks to have significant in-game rain, and depending on any potential clearing windows, it could end up being postponed since the visiting Milwaukee Brewers are in town through Thursday. Keep tabs on your favorite DFS meteorological sources closer to lock.
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