NFL Best Ball 2023 Late Round Stacks & Picks: Geno Smith, Seahawks Can Repeat Unexpected 2022 (June 27)

Best Ball summer is officially here. For those looking to take down some of the larger prizes like Best Ball Mania IV, stacking increases in importance given the number of entries in a contest. In a nutshell, stacking means drafting a quarterback and pass catcher from the same team. That way, when the quarterback throws a touchdown to that player, they both receive the points. For the purposes of this article, late-round stacks will exclude any quarterback with a top-100 ADP. Now let’s dive into best late-round stacks for 2023 Best Ball leagues, using projections and Stokastic’s Best Ball rankings.

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NFL Best Ball 2023 Late Round Stacks & Picks

Seattle Seahawks

After overachieving last year relative to expectations, the Seattle Seahawks enter 2023 with an 8.5-win total. Even with the resurgence of Geno Smith, Best Ball drafters have been a little wary of this offense. Smith specifically comes off the board an ADP of 114.2 on Underdog Fantasy. Stokastic’s Best Ball rankings have Smith at 130, but there is a solid way to approach the Seattle stack.

Premier pass catchers D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba all come off the board well ahead of Smith. Metcalf is a third-round pick with an ADP of 28.6. Lockett and Smith-Njigba come off the board at 63.9 and 62.3 in the Round 5 to 6 range. An easy way to play this Seattle stack is to prioritize Smith once your team has already drafted one or two of these pass catchers.

Smith alone is due for some negative regression after leading the NFL in completion percentage and ranking top 10 in yards per attempt. However, that does not mean he cannot have a good season. Smith received a weapons upgrade when Seattle drafted Smith-Njigba in the first.

As for the receivers, Stokastic’s Best Ball rankings are almost spot on with Metcalf’s ADP. Lockett stands out with a ranking of 57. Smith-Njigba comes in at 82, below his current Underdog ADP. Lockett is entering his age-31 season, but he posted 1.89 yards per route, which narrowly trailed Metcalf at 1.93. Those drafting Smith-Njigba over Lockett seem to be betting on some serious year-over-year decline with Metcalf. Meanwhile, Smith-Njigba will be making the jump to the NFL after barely playing last year. Ohio State used him exclusively in the slot, where he projects to play in Seattle. The Seahawks use plenty of 12 personnel, raising questions about Smith-Njigba’s snap ceiling in comparison to Lockett.

Finally, for those playing the massive Best Ball Mania IV, Noah Fant can be added onto teams late, with an ADP of 211.8. Stokastic’s Best Ball rankings have Fant at 201, providing some value. Fant has never quite lived up to his draft capital, but he projects to play over Will Dissly in clear passing situations.

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Pittsburgh Steelers

One player rising up Stokastic’s Best Ball rankings recently has been Kenny Pickett. The sophomore quarterback comes off the board with an ADP of 169.7. Stokastic’s Best Ball rankings currently slot in Pickett at 164. As a rookie, Pickett did not look like anything special. He completed 63% of his passes for 6.2 yards per attempt. However, he did post a woeful 1.8% touchdown rate, which should improve. Pittsburgh also continues to help by investing in playmakers around him.

At receiver, Pittsburgh has a pair of pass catchers coming off the board in the Round 5 to 6 range. Diontae Johnson currently has an ADP of 64.4, and second-year receiver George Pickens comes off the board at 74.7. Stokastic’s Best Ball rankings are higher on proven commodity Johnson at No. 53, while Pickens is a round below at 87.

Johnson recorded 882 yards on a 26.8% target share. He went for 1,121 yards in 2021, showing his true ceiling in the NFL. Pickens also had 801 yards as a rookie on a 15.3% target share. While a little more boom/bust, Pickens’ game lends itself to the larger tournaments on Underdog. The rankings have a slight preference to Johnson, but both receivers have plenty of room for upside.

For those missing the top 2 receivers, tight end Pat Freiermuth also comes in as a value. He currently has an ADP of 107.2, but Stokastic’s Best Ball rankings slot him in at 103. Freiermuth has proven to be an elite red zone weapon. He also posted a strong 19.6% target share last year.

Pittsburgh added presumed WR3 Allen Robinson in free agency. While Robinson has battled injury and inefficiency of late, he should still provide an upgrade to this receiving corps. Better yet, he has an ADP of 212.7, making him an easy player to add onto Pittsburgh stacks in the final rounds.

Houston Texans

The greasiest of all the stacks mentioned today, the Houston Texans come with the cheapest cost by far. Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has an ADP of 189.9. This is pretty pessimistic considering Stroud is one of the best quarterbacks in Ohio State history. He has elite draft capital, decent mobility and a dirt-cheap cost. Stokastic’s Best Ball rankings come in well ahead of ADP at 170 overall.

The tough part about Stroud is deciphering the pass-catching order. While this may look unappetizing on the surface, the uncertainty has pushed down the receivers’ collective ADPs. It also opens the door for a deeper player to emerge, which can help teams get unique in the larger Underdog tournaments.

The presumed WR1 is Nico Collins, who comes in with an ADP of 132.5. This is flat out too low if he can stay healthy. Collins posed a decent 1.68 yards per route but only ended up with 481 receiving yards due to injury. The quarterback upgrade should benefit him here. Stokastic’s Best Ball rankings put Collins at 113 and make him one of the best mid-round values in Best Ball.

The rest of the group comes with significant uncertainty. John Metchie comes off the board at 175.6. He has been cleared of his cancer diagnosis from a season ago, and Metchie has second-round draft capital. Veteran Robert Woods joined the team, but he has been ineffective for multiple seasons now. He comes off the board at pick 206.6. Houston also drafted Houston Cougars receiver Tank Dell on Day 2 of the NFL Draft. He has an ADP of 210.5. Even Noah Brown could carve out a role. Stokastic’s projections still have Woods as the top value of this group, but Dell continues to climb the rankings, with Metchie holding steady just outside the top 200.

Receivers aside, there is a real case to be made for tight end Dalton Schultz as the top overall pass catcher in this offense. Schultz notched 577 yards last year, but he had 808 back in 2021. He certainly faced more target competition in Dallas and now could lead the Texans in targets. Schultz currently has an ADP of 138.7, but Stokastic’s Best Ball rankings slot him in at 111. He is one of the top tight end targets of the mid-rounds.

Author
Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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