Saturday has a trio of game-windows with the larger tournaments being posted for the six-game featured slate locking at 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch, followed by a slim three-game featured slate locking at 6:40 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo MLB DFS picks today, with SP1s Cristian Javier and Reid Detmers bringing ample strikeout upside.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Cristian Javier at Oakland Athletics — 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:07 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,000 | FanDuel $8,800 | Yahoo $39
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool likes RHPÂ Cristian Javier to have a bounce-back game tonight against the anemic offense of the Oakland Athletics. In his last two outings, Javier was saddled with 11 earned runs across 9.1 combined innings on the road, against the Rangers and Angels. Fortunately, he continues to rack up strikeouts at well over one per inning. Though the 26-year-old has pitched beyond the fifth inning only once in his last six appearances, it should be considered a disappointment if he does not close out the sixth inning tonight, while also locking up a quality start.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: LHP Reid Detmers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates — 4.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:07 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,500 | FanDuel $9,000 | Yahoo $42
Tonight RHPÂ Logan Webb is in our nation’s capital, with a dream matchup against the Washington Nationals. He is the clear secondary option and also a “cash game” (H2H, double-ups, 3-mans, etc.) building block. For those looking to be a little adventurous, LHPÂ Reid Detmers is a strong tournament option against the pitiful Pittsburgh Pirates.
Last night the Bucs popped off with four round-trippers against RHP Shohei Ohtani, but they still managed just five total runs in an 8-5 loss to the Angels in Anaheim. The injuries to Ke’Bryan Hayes, Ji Hwan Bae and of course phenom Oneil Cruz have decimated an already thin offense. The back of the lineup should featured a trio of youngsters with catcher Endy Rodriguez, along with infielders Nick Gonzales and Jared Triolo who have a combined 156 major league at bats. Heck, even Henry Davis has just 110 plate appearances in The Show and he is very green for a heart-of-the-order hitter, though he should be riding high after taking Ohtani out of the park twice last night.
Detmers should be able to tally at least one strikeout per inning and though it is a stretch, double-digits are in play. Tonight will already be the 48th career start for Detmers who is averaging 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings this season, which is a healthy 2.5 more than his first 30 starts over the last two campaigns.
Early Slate Pitching Target: RHP Kevin Gausman at Seattle Mariners — 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,400 | FanDuel $10,800 | Yahoo $53
This is a cherry matchup for RHP Kevin Gausman, particularly since youngster Jarred Kelenic broke his foot after angrily kicking a water cooler on Wednesday after striking out. The projected lineup for Seattle has a 24.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season, with Eugenio Suarez (27.8%), Teoscar Hernandez (30.7%) and Mike Ford (32.4%) being the worst offenders.
Gausman has been stellar with an 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings rate, matching his career best while bringing an absurd 30.3% whiff rate overall this year. Looking at OddsShopper, we can see that he is locked in a tight battle for the American League Cy Young Award, with RHP Gerrit Cole, LHP Framber Valdez and LHP Shane McClanahan.
McClanahan is the pivot tonight as he is at home in pitching-friendly Tropicana Field, though the Orioles are a tough matchup. The Rays will be facing RHPÂ Grayson Rodriguez, who is a tournament longshot against a terrific Tampa Bay offense. Rodriguez is back after a seven-game demotion to Triple-A where he was outstanding with 54 strikeouts in 37.1 innings. This should be a fun game to watch with these two teams improbably atop the American League standings.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: San Francisco Giants at RHP Jake Irvin — 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool feels that Atlanta should have no issues with RHP Adrian Houser after they roughed up a far better pitcher last night in RHP Freddy Peralta. The key to beating Houser is to get him burning up his pitches as he nibbles around the outside of the zone looking for strikeouts.
Atlanta literally has an All-Star lineup as the entire infield and outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. all made the All-Star squad this season. The Braves have 184 home runs this season, which is nearly a full standard deviation ahead of the Dodgers (156) and Angels (151) who round out the top-three. The team has a collective .268/.337/.493 triple-slash line with the individual components ranking second, second and first in the league.
Thankfully DraftKings and Yahoo have really elevated the salaries of the Bravos and even FanDuel has made an effort to assign appropriate pricing. The All-Stars of course are the focus with Austin Rely, Matt Olson, Sean Murphy and Ozzie Albies being the best option, but even a discounted Orlando Arcia has made some noise at the plate with all the good pitches he is seeing this season in this loaded lineup.
Outfielders Michael Harris II, Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario are secondary options, but they do offer significant salary savings over their teammates as well as differentiation from the field.
Late Slate Target: Los Angeles Angels vs. LHP Ryan Borucki / RHP Osvaldo Bido — 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
Initially RHPÂ Osvaldo Bido was slated to make this start, but now it is LHPÂ Ryan Borucki, who is likely going to be the opener as he has thrown between 21 and 24 pitches twice in his 11 appearances since being called up from Triple-A. Five of these have been multi-inning efforts, though that really means he has record four or five outs.
Borucki broke into the league as a starter with Toronto back in the 2018 season, but he has worked exclusively as a reliever over the last five seasons. Bido have been in the Pittsburgh farm system since 2017, logging 174.1 innings at the Triple-A level with mediocre results. He profiles as a back of the rotation starter or multi-inning reliever with pedestrian strikeout stuff and control issues likely to result in an elevated walk rate around four per nine innings.
Shohei Ohtani of course is the centerpiece when stacking the Halos and he can be combined with promising youngsters Zach Neto and Mickey Moniak at the top of the order. Taylor Ward, Mike Moustakas and Hunter Renfroe can be used in full-stacks. We could see Moustakas slide down the order so he misses facing a fellow lefty if Borucki is indeed starting tonight, which in turn would bump up Renfroe a spot or two.
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Early Slate Target: Game Stack Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds — 10.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
The injuries to RHPs Merrill Kelly and Zach Davies have left a hole in the Arizona rotation. Tonight we will likely see LHP Tyler Gilbert take on the first two innings, but it could also be rookie RHP Brandon Pfaadt getting the call up from Triple-A Reno. Pfaadt was a fifth-round selection in the 2020 MLB Draft, but he has just 122.1 innings at Triple-A.
Earlier this season Pfaadt made six starts, though they were rough and resulted in a 9.82 ERA and 7.86 xERA. In his last two starts for the Aces, the 24-year-old was solid with 11 strikeouts across 9.1 innings and we can ignore the five earned runs as this action took place in the Pacific Coast League bandboxes. What we cannot ignore is the nine home runs allowed in his 25.2 MLB innings, which converts to an eye-popping 3.16 home runs per nine innings. Pfaadt is a solid prospect, but pitching in the Great American Ballpark against a suddenly dynamic Cincinnati offense will not be an easy task if he draws the start.
Regardless of if the Diamondbacks work with a bullpen committee or Pfaadt, look to Jonathan India, Joey Votto, Spencer Steer, Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz and Christian Encarnacion-Strand as key stacking components. If Gilbert draws the start, we are likely to see Nick Senzel bat second to work him up the order with the platoon-advantage.
The Reds will be countering with rookie LHPÂ Brandon Williamson, who has allowed 10 home runs in his 52.2 innings this season for a 1.7 per nine innings rate. The 25-year-old is another one of the Cincinnati pitching prospects, though he is definitely a couple rungs below his counterparts. Most notably it is a lack of strikeout upside and elevated walk rates that are his undoing when the inevitable longball is knocked out of the park.
Look to the Arizona right-handed batsmen first with Ketel Marte, Lourdes Guerriel Jr. and Christian Walker the trio to target. Veteran Evan Longoria is still a lefty-masher, even as he heads towards his 38th birthday this fall. Emmanuel Rivera is likely to get a plum assignment to the two-hole with a southpaw on the mound, though we can only roster one of him and Longoria on DraftKings and Yahoo as they are only eligible at the hot corner.
Corbin Carroll will likely slot lower in the order tonight, but the Reds have just one lefty reliever, so Carroll should get at least three plate appearances while holding the platoon-advantage. Nick Ahmed is the discount dandy du jour and a decent differentiation option who can be used as part of a mini-stack with Carrol and Jake McCarthy from the bottom of the order.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Though RHP Josiah Gray has cut down on his home runs after leading the league by allowing 38 last season, he still has four multi-home run games in his last five starts. Tonight in the sports wagering market, we can look to Patrick Bailey, as his +600 home run odds are being filtered to the top with the new True Odds feature on OddsShopper. This wager should be priced closer to +517 “true odds,” indicating a market inefficiency of 11%.
Keep in mind this is a long-shot wager, which is why the payout is so enticing. This is the sort of bet where we can lay down a finski for some added rooting interest, but without being foolish about our bankroll management.
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Final Thoughts for Saturday, July 22 | MLB DFS Picks
The Midwest has a few venues worth monitoring for medium precipitation risk in Chicago, Cincinnati, Detroit and Minnesota, with the latter carrying semi-elevated levels of concern.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Strategy Show, at 11:00 a.m. ET, brought to you by Underdog Fantasy. New users sign up through this link and receive a first deposit match up to $100. Full details here.
