Sunday has one of the thinner featured slates, with just eight games on DraftKings, and FanDuel and a 1:35 p.m. ET first pitch. Yahoo is shaking things up, as their featured slate locks at 4:05 p.m. ET with the final six games on the docket. Before you build lineups, several Stokastic tools can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups, including Gerrit Cole taking on the Rays in Tampa Bay.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Gerrit Cole at Tampa Bay Rays — 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $11,500 | FanDuel $11,500 | Yahoo $54
Today is going to be an adventure, with very few frontline pitchers to employ in DFS rosters. RHP Gerrit Cole is truly an ace, and he has been off to a wicked start this season, with a 5-0 record, 1.35 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 52 strikeouts in his 46.2 innings. Unfortunately, he is at an apex salary while also in a tricky road matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays. Though he will be receiving a ballpark boost when compared to Yankee Stadium, Tampa Bay will be rolling out a disciplined lineup with above-average walks and below-average strikeouts. Cole is the clear cash-game option, though he is far from a must in tournaments.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Sandy Alcantara at Chicago Cubs — 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,400 | FanDuel $9,600 | Yahoo $39
Quick, who won the National League Cy Young Award last season? Yup, it was RHP Sandy Alcantara, who is an outstanding real-life pitcher but far from a DFS stalwart. The main knock against Alcantara is that he lacks strikeouts, which, of course, is a problem in the fantasy world. For his career, he has 8.0 strikeouts per nine innings, and even in his award-winning season, he averaged only 8.1 strikeouts per nine. Quality starts and going deep into games are what made Alcantara stand out last season, though he has closed out the sixth inning only twice in his six starts this year. Yes, this is far from a ringing endorsement, and the real purpose of discussing Alcantara in the article today is to underscore that he is by no means a lock to perform well, and it is unlikely he pays off today’s lofty salary on DraftKings and FanDuel.
For the main slate, LHP Steven Matz against Detroit and RHP Hayden Wesneski against Miami are far better fantasy point-per-dollar options — terrifying, but true.
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Late Slate Pitching Target: RHP Graham Ashcraft vs. Chicago White Sox — 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,800 | FanDuel $9,500 | Yahoo $39
Similar to the featured slate, Sunday’s afternoon action does not have many appealing pitching options. RHP Graham Ashcraft stands out more for his matchup than his actual fantasy upside. Through six starts, the beefy 6-foot-2, 250-pound righty has yet to allow more than two runs to opposing teams. The 2.00 ERA and relatively pristine 1.17 WHIP are masking the underlying issue, which is a paltry 27 strikeouts in 36 innings. Ashcraft’s 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings this season are actually an improvement over last year (6.1).
The White Sox projected lineup does not bring many strikeouts, but it is also embarrassingly bad in the power department. Since the beginning of last year, only Andrew Vaughn (.178 ISO) and Gavin Sheets (.172 ISO) have been able to muster more than a .140 ISO against right-handed hurlers. Keep in mind that Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez and Jake Burger are all out, plus lineup mainstay Jose Abreu is now in Houston.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Philadelphia Phillies vs. RHP Tanner Houck — 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
This is shaping up to be a long or short afternoon for RHP Tanner Houck, depending on the vantage point. In his last start, the 26-year-old was tattooed by Toronto, ceding six runs in as many innings and striking out a mere five. In the start prior to that, Houck allowed four runs in five innings, striking out just two Baltimore Orioles. Opposite-handed batsmen have been a nightmare for Houck, as he allowed a .187 ISO to his last 177 batters faced.
Bryce Harper is back, and while he is not fully healthy, the two-time National League MVP is still a force to be reckoned with. He is joined at the top of the order by fellow former Nationals Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber, creating a prodigious power trio. Nick Castellanos should be batting cleanup this afternoon, and hot-hitting Bryson Stott has helped ease the continuing absence of slugger Rhys Hoskins.
Mid-Afternoon Slate Target: Oakland Athletics at LHP Ryan Yarbrough — 5.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
We are likely looking at the end of the line for 31-year-old LHP Ryan Yarbrough, who looks like he is throwing batting practice. Yes, he will probably kick around for a few more seasons in a relief role, but he has no business being a starter anymore. Heck, even in his Tampa Bay days, he was given an “opener” to help out with the top half of opposing lineups, as well as being limited to just two times through the batting order. Kansas City desperately needs arms, so here we are.
Saturday did not quite bring the offensive fireworks that were projected for this matchup, but we could see them arrive today. Brent Rooker, Jesus Aguilar and Ramon Laureano are the preferred options today, and each has above-average power against southpaws. This is a rare recommendation of the Athletics offense, but not to fear — we will be back to picking on them tomorrow with LHP Nestor Cortes.
Late Slate Target: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RHP Trevor Williams — 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
Journeyman RHP Trevor Williams has solid results this season, though that has been driven by some relatively easy matchups. The 31-year-old relies on inducing weak contact, and that is walking a fine line when we consider he throws his 90 mph fastball nearly two-thirds of the time. Lefties give him fits, and over his last 220 opposite-handed matchups, he has allowed a .353 wOBA and a .187 ISO, with an anemic 9.5% strikeout rate. The Chase Field roof is scheduled to be closed this afternoon, but that will likely do very little to protect Williams from allowing a longball or two.
Corbin Carroll is a longshot for a home run, but the reward is there, with early lines on some sites paying out as much as +700 for a dinger. More noted for his speed on the basepaths, the 22-year-old has shown some pop as well, and in his limited time in The Show, he projects out as a 25- to 30-home-run hitter.
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Switch-hitter Ketel Marte also stands out, and he is all but guaranteed five plate appearances batting near the top of the order. Pavin Smith and Christian Walker can be used to round out full stacks. Also, keep an eye on that lineup, and if Josh Rojas is leading off, he is a steal on FanDuel ($2,600) this afternoon.
Final Thoughts for Sunday, May 7 | MLB DFS Picks
Today we will want to monitor forecasts in the Midwest, with Chicago and St. Louis looking at afternoon storms. Further east, Pittsburgh is looking at rain in the early-game window, but if they are patient, things clear out later in the day.
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