Monday’s MLB DFS action brings a few early games, along with an 11-game featured slate with first pitch at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you lock in lineups, there are several Stokastic tools that can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks player projections and popularity for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups, including Hunter Brown and the Houston offense in their matchup against venerable lefty Matthew Boyd.
Now onto our MLB DFS picks.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Pitching Target: RHP Hunter Brown vs. Detroit Tigers — 3.3 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,400 | FanDuel $9,100 | Yahoo $44
Hunter Brown made steady progress through the Houston farm system after being a fifth-round selection in the 2019 MLB Draft out of Wayne State University. He managed to maintain a high level of strikeouts along this journey, and in his cup of coffee last year, he notched 22 punchouts in 20.1 innings.
The 24-year-old was working through some back tightness but should be good to go this afternoon for 80 to 90 pitches. Detroit is going to be a team we are picking on all season, and through their opening series in Tampa Bay, they managed to score just three runs. Even better, in 95 at-bats, the team collectively struck out 30 times. Enjoy!
Late Slate Pitching Target: RHP George Kirby vs. Los Angeles Angels — 3.3 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,000 | FanDuel $10,000 | Yahoo $41
The Angels are a top-heavy offense that falls off dramatically after Hunter Renfroe. Jake Lamb strikes out in nearly one out of three at-bats, and Luis Rengifo, Gio Urshela and Logan O’Hoppe have very little extra-base hit upside. Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and when healthy Anthony Rendon are a fierce gauntlet, but one that George Kirby should be able to neutralize.
It is fun watching Kirby pitch, as he is able to keep hitters off balance with his four-pitch repertoire of fastball (both a two- and four-seam styles), slider, curve and changeup. Though his is “just” a 95 mph fastball, he works in his changeup at just over 80 mph, which makes for a devastating speed differential to hitters. For those feeling bold, Kirby is a worthwhile SP1 in the main-slate tournaments, along with being the standout pitcher on the late slate.
Secondary Targets (SP2s on DraftKings and Lottery Tickets on FanDuel)
RHP Drew Rasmussen at Washington Nationals: Like the Tigers, we will be picking on the Nationals all season. Rasmussen is worthy of being an SP1 in this matchup.
RHP Zach Plesac at Oakland Athletics: Cool weather and an offense “featuring” the likes of Aledmys Diaz, Jesus Aguilar and Conner Capel … Yes Please!
LHP Reid Detmers at Seattle Mariners: It is going to be cold in Seattle tonight, with game-time temperatures in the low-40s. This should help suppress the respective offenses. Detmers is an intriguing option who has not quite put everything together, as is the case for a lot of young southpaws. The Mariners were a fun story last year, as they ended a two-decade playoff drought, but their offense lacks punch.
RHP Jon Gray vs. Baltimore Orioles: The roof will likely be closed in Texas tonight due to rain in the forecast, which does give a boost to the pitchers. Baltimore has some talented players, but they are all young and will be inconsistent in their production.
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Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Houston Astros vs. LHP Matthew Boyd — 4.9 implied runs
After spending one season with Seattle — logging only 13.1 innings of relief action — Matthew Boyd is back in Detroit on a one-year, $10 million deal. It is always an adventure when the southpaw faces a lineup loaded with right-handed hitters, and that is on tap tonight. In his last 517 matchups against opposite-handed hitters, Boyd has a 5.07 ERA, 5.28 xFIP and 1.56 home runs per nine innings, which are exacerbated by an 8.9% walk rate and a paltry 20.5% strikeout rate.
Jose Pena has excelled in his young career against lefties, with a .352 wOBA and .218 ISO in 160 plate appearances. Chas McCormick stole two bases on Sunday, and he has three on the season. Currently he is near the minimum salary across the various MLB DFS sites, and he should be a lineup mainstay with his power upside.
Veterans Alex Bregman and Jose Abreu have a long track record of success and are among the best options at the corner positions today. Finally, we have Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, who are among the best in the league in lefty/lefty matchups, yet DFS gamers still shy away from them in these circumstances. They should be popular today by default, but file this little information nugget away for future slates. We should also see Martin Maldonado behind the plate tonight, and he has light-tower power against lefties, plus those home runs from the nine-hole hitters still count the same as those from the cleanup slot.
Late Slate Target: Arizona Diamondbacks at LHP Ryan Weathers — 3.8 implied runs
In a fun twist, the Arizona Diamondbacks are going to be underutilized in tournaments given their low implied team total. Do not let that dissuade you from stacking them against LHP Ryan Weathers, who struggles against right-handed batsmen. In his last 298 matchups against opposite-handed hitters, Weathers has ceded 2.09 home runs per nine innings, with a paltry 18.1% strikeout rate and a generous 9.7% walk rate.
Former Mariner Kyle Lewis has flashed talent, but a knee injury suffered all the way back in 2016 during his first MiLB season has plagued him throughout his career. His right ACL and meniscus were shredded in a home plate collision, and he has had several procedures on the knee over the subsequent seasons. As a life-long Seattle fan, I have followed his career closely after he was the 11th overall selection back in the 2016 MLB Draft. Hopefully a change of scenery will do him well, but today we can roll the dice with him at a ridiculously low sub-$2,500 salary on DraftKings and FanDuel as long as he is near the top of the order.
Ketel Marte and Christian Walker also have excellent power upside against lefties, and, of course, Evan Longoria may not be the superstar he once was in Tampa Bay, but he can still make pitchers pay when he has the platoon advantage.
Final Thoughts for Monday, April 3
Today all 30 teams are in action, with the season still in the early days. Most squads are rolling out back-of-the-rotation starters, which should make for a fun offensive environment with some pinball scoring scenarios.
Be sure to get all the updated information on the Stokastic MLB Deeper Dive ad Live Before Lock Shows, starting at 5 p.m. ET, brought to you by Bet365.
