Friday wraps up the work week with a thrilling 13-game featured slate that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you build lineups, several Stokastic tools can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups, including Corbin Burnes, Gerrit Cole, Martin Perez, a Coors Field Extravaganza and more.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Gerrit Cole vs. Tampa Bay Rays — 4.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $12,000 | FanDuel $11,300 | Yahoo $53
The Rays sit atop the scoring leaderboard through the first quarter of the season, though they will likely be without Wander Franco, who left Thursday’s game early with a neck issue. Though Gerrit Cole has yet to win a Cy Young Award, he has finished in the top five in four of the last six years. In 2021 he led the league in wins, and during 2022 it was starts and strikeouts. So far this season, Cole has a 2.09 ERA, 2.61 FIP and 3.17 xERA while striking out 10.1 batters per nine innings.
Tonight there is a game in Coors Field, which seems to have been missed by the FanDuel salary algorithm. For those of you sickos (and as a fellow seamhead, I use that term with nothing but admiration) who are playing cash games, by all means lock in Cole and a Coors double stack and move on. Yahoo and DraftKings are making it somewhat challenging, which in turn means that Cole is likely to be underrepresented in tournaments.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Corbin Burnes vs. Kansas City Royals — 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,200 | FanDuel $10,000 | Yahoo $45
The start to the season was a rocky one for RHP Corbin Burnes, as he allowed 10 runs in 9.1 innings against the Mets and in Chicago against the Cubs. In his next five starts, he settled down and held the opposition to two or fewer earned runs. Full transparency, hidden within those results are four unearned runs. Let’s give the benefit of the doubt to the 28-year-old who won the National League Cy Young Award just two years ago and who led the league with 243 strikeouts last season.
While most of the Kansas City lineup is disciplined when it comes to strikeouts, over the last season and change, the trio of MJ Melendez (28.0%), Michael Massey (28.9%) and Nick Pratto (33.5%) will bring plenty of opportunities for Burnes to rack up fantasy points.
Late Slate Pitching Target: LHP Martin Perez at Oakland Athletics — 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,300 | FanDuel $9,200 | Yahoo $35
It would seem that only the Yahoo salary algorithm is giving us any sort of discount for LHP Martin Perez as he takes on the Athletics in Oakland. In his first six starts this season, Perez allowed a mere nine runs, though the Angels got to him for seven in his last appearance. The 32-year-old lefty does a nice job of limiting runs, despite his reputation among the less informed DFS gamers. Only eight times in his last 61 starts (13.1%) has he allowed more than four earned runs.
Though his ground ball rate dipped during his two seasons in Boston, Perez got back on track last year with a 51.4% rate that was a tick above his 49.3% career rate. Perez gets just enough strikeouts to be interesting on DraftKings, but he is not a lock at the SP2 position on the main slate. Additionally, what appears to be an overprice on FanDuel is actually reasonable when we remember the blue site awards points for a quality start (six innings with three or fewer earned runs) and Perez has 23 in his last 39 opportunities (58.9%).
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: St. Louis Cardinals at LHP James Paxton — 5.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Yes, of course you can roster both sides of the Coors Field Extravaganza tonight, and the Rangers look to be in a phenomenal spot all weekend as they take on the Athletics in Oakland. Now that we have that out of the way, let’s look at potential pivots and countermoves across the other 11 games.
St. Louis will be bringing a parade of right-handed batsmen to Boston tonight as they face LHP James Paxton. The former DFS darling suffered an elbow injury in his first 2021 start and spent all of last season completing his rehabilitation. This year a hamstring injury knocked him out of spring training, and considering Paxton was a late bloomer who is now in his age-34 season, a strong return to form is unlikely. In six games with Triple-A Worcester, the venerable southpaw logged 21.2 innings, a 6.65 ERA, 1.569 WHIP, 16 walks and 26 strikeouts. Though he allowed just two round-trippers, dingers and extra-base hits are definitely in the forecast tonight.
Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are two of the best in the game against lefties, and putting them together with switch-hitting Tommy Edman leading off, we can create a formidable trio. Willson Contreras has to come out of his funk at some point, and why not against a sub-par southpaw? If he sees his name on the lineup card, Juan Yepez is an interesting discount dandy.
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Evening Slate Target: Houston Astros at RHP Michael Kopech — 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Dearly Beloved, tonight we gather to witness the demise of RHP Michael Kopech’s career as a starting pitcher. Though he may have a second life as a bullpen arm, his days in the rotation are numbered … even if the White Sox do not yet realize this inevitability. The once-shining star of a prospect that burned so brightly is now but a flickering glimmer, barely visible to the naked eye.
The 27-year-old was selected straight out of high school in the first round of the 2014 MLB Draft by the Boston Red Sox. Injuries and the pandemic impacted his once-glorious career trajectory. Tommy John surgery and the pandemic cost him the 2019 and 2020 seasons, and during the last two years he has made trips to the injured list for a variety of issues, including knee soreness and a balky hamstring.
This year, though Kopech has answered the bell every five days, he has allowed a dozen home runs in his 37.2 innings, resulting in a 5.97 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. The 36 strikeouts are a silver lining, but the Texas native appears to be a big hat with no cattle once hitters have a few looks at him from the batter’s box.
Sluggers Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are strong DFS plays, and they are also intriguing options in the home run market. Those boppers can be joined by Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena and former Chicago White Sox star and 2020 American League MVP, Jose Abreu.
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Late Slate Target: San Francisco Giants at RHP Ryne Nelson — 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Rolling out stacks against the dilapidated Oakland pitching staff this weekend is a strong move on all slates, including those which also have Coors Field. For something more interesting to write about today, let’s look at the San Francisco Giants, getting a park upgrade and a bonus with the Chase Field roof scheduled to be open.
This season RHP Ryne Nelson has made seven starts, with dodgy results. While he ripped through the low-level minor leagues with a ton of strikeouts, those began to evaporate once he reached Triple-A and then across his 54.1 MLB innings, beginning with last season’s cup of coffee.
The popular projection systems do view Nelson as being secure in a starting role but with mediocre power numbers — in the range of 1.3 to 1.4 per nine innings — and around 7.0 strikeouts per nine innings. This bodes well for opposing power hitters, and tonight that means Joc Pederson and J.D. Davis stand out. They can be joined in stacks with lefties LaMonte Wade and Michael Conforto and righties Mitch Haniger and Thairo Estrada for full stacks.
Final Thoughts for Friday, May 12 | MLB DFS Picks
The Midwest has some rain that may come into play for games in Cleveland and Detroit, though it does not seem like there is any risk of a postponed game.
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