Wednesday features some afternoon baseball, along with a seven-game main slate with a typically 7:07 p.m. ET lock time on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you build lineups, several Stokastic tools can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups, including the Mariners taking on Brayan Bello.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Spencer Strider at Texas Rangers — 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $12,000 | FanDuel $11,500 | Yahoo $59
There is no discount whatsoever for RHP Spencer Strider, but he still rates out with the best fantasy projection across the three main MLB DFS sites. Texas is second in the league with 261 runs scored, which works out to an eye-popping 6.21 per game.
This is clearly a strength-versus-strength matchup, but Strider is already a strikeout artist, with a ridiculous 15.2 strikeouts per nine innings in his eight appearances. Though it is bringing the lumber, the Rangers lineup is striking out at a 26.8% rate against right-handed hurlers.
Alternative options for those not looking to tie up so much salary cap in one player include: Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes, Nathan Eovaldi and Chris Bassitt.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Targets
Wednesday brings a pair of youngsters to the forefront. The St. Louis Cardinals are pushing back RHP Adam Wainwright and calling up RHP Matthew Liberatore for the first time this season. In 34.2 innings at the big league level last year, the 23-year-old had some bumps along the way, allowing five home runs and 18 walks over 34.2 innings while striking out 7.3 per nine innings.
This season, in his third round at the Triple-A level, Liberatore has been outstanding, with 10.96 strikeout per nine innings, 3.13 ERA and 3.69 FIP. Though he is projected for mediocre strikeout numbers in The Show, it looks like he is ready to stay in the rotation after showing out with the Memphis Redbirds. The moderate salary for today makes him a strong SP2 option on DraftKings ($7,400), and he is even viable in tournaments on FanDuel ($7,500).
RHP J.P. France will be making his third start for Houston, and in his first two outings he allowed one run, six hits and two walks in 11.2 combined innings in Seattle and in Chicago against the White Sox. The eight strikeouts are OK, but the best part about all of this is that a solo shot to Luis Robert accounted for the only run against him.
Tonight he will be taking on the Cubbies, who are in the midst of a road trip, and we could finally see the wheels start to fall off the wagon. They have clearly been punching above their weight class, and now that Cody Bellinger is dinged up and Nico Hoerner on the injured list, the clock may be striking midnight on this Cinderella start.
Early Slate Pitching Target: RHP Yu Darvish vs. Kansas City Royals — 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,200 | FanDuel $10,400 | Yahoo $50
For this afternoon, RHP Yu Darvish stands out as the key pitcher to craft lineups around. The 36-year-old has allowed two or fewer runs in five of seven appearances. While the veteran hurler is seeing a downtick in his strikeouts, over the last season and change his 9.25 per nine innings are still above average.
The projected lineup for the Kansas City Royals has a below-average strikeout rate of 21.6% against right-handed pitchers since the start of last year. While that is not ideal for fantasy production, it is accompanied by below-average power (.131 ISO). MJ Melendez, Nick Pratto, Maikel Garcia and Michael Massey all strike out at a rate of 25% or higher, so Darvish should be able to coax enough whiffs to be atop the pitching leaderboard for the early slate.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Seattle Mariners at RHP Brayan Bello — 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Looking at the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool, the Mariners are a strong option to be a top-three stack tonight. RHP Brayan Bello has shown glimpses of potential, but he has a long way to go to learn how to pitch to major league hitters. In each of his five starts, he has allowed a home run, though he has also shown strikeout upside.
While the Mariners do not have any dangerous bats outside of Julio Rodriguez, they do not have many easy outs in the lineup either. Power upside is available with Jarred Kelenic, Taylor Trammell, Eugenio Suarez and catcher Cal Raleigh. This group is likely to be spread out on the lineup card, so do not be afraid to leave a hole or two in the stack. Teoscar Hernandez and Ty France can be used to connect the dots for a maximum-synergy approach.
Latest MLB DFS Content
- MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: SP1 Nathan Eovaldi + Texas Bats (May 2)
- MLB DFS Punt Plays: Jordan Beck, Adrian Houser & More
- DraftKings Fantasy Baseball Cheat Sheet: Best Picks From MLB DFS Contest Sims | Aaron Judge (May 2 Main Slate)
- MLB DFS: Stokastic’s Tom Kennedy With TWO DraftKings MLB Wins in One Night | How the Sims Helped Him Out
- Stokastic’s NEW MLB Package: Use What Our Pros Are Using to Win Big
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Evening Slate Target: Cleveland Guardians at RHP Mike Clevinger — 4.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Unfortunately, an injury to his right elbow that resulted in Tommy John surgery towards the end of 2020, seems to have capped the expected upside of Mike Clevinger. Across 155.2 innings since completing his rehabilitation, home runs have been an issue for the 32-year-old righty. Typically it does take two seasons to recover from elbow surgery, so while there is still a chance for improvement, it is unlikely that Clevinger will regain his old form at this point in his career.
Unfortunately, Jose Ramirez is on the bereavement list and not currently with the team ,and Josh Naylor was pulled early from Tuesday’s game while extending his leg making a stretch grab at first base. If Naylor plays, he is an interesting option in the home run market, with his early line of +450 to take one out of the ballpark.
Did you know that you can get one free month of Stokastic+ Platinum for signing up and making your first bet at BetMGM? Claim here today!
If Naylor is out, that means the casual DFS gamer is even less likely to look at the Guardians as a viable stack on the main slate, though they are still one of just four teams on the late slate. Josh Bell, Andres Gimenez and Steven Kwan all have above-average pop when holding the platoon advantage, and they are the trio to target tonight as well as being a fine secondary mini-stack for differentiation on the featured slate.
Afternoon Slate Target: Philadelphia Phillies at RHP Ross Stripling — 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 3:45 p.m. ET
The offense should be plentiful this afternoon with a Coors Field Extravaganza, a bullpen game coming from Kansas City and a pair of struggling righties squaring off in Oakland. However, this recommendation is going to the other side of The Bay, and RHP Ross Stripling is the target for the Philadelphia Phillies.
The 33-year-old veteran has been very hittable this season, and even though he has been working out of the bullpen and as a starter, he should be producing more consistent results. Ultimately he may end up with a role as part of a pitching combo that limits his expectations to three innings or one time through the batting order. Home runs have been the biggest culprit, and he has allowed two on four different occasions, including each of his last two games.
Now that Bryce Harper is back, the Philadelphia lineup is a daunting one for opposing pitchers. Harper, Kyle Schwarber and catcher JT Realmuto all have elite power. Trea Turner has been struggling, but he is one of the best offensive players in the game, and though Nick Castellanos performs better against southpaws, he should see some good pitches from Stripling this afternoon. The same goes for youngsters Alex Bohm and Bryson Stott as two of the weaker hitters in the lineup. All aboard!
Final Thoughts for Wednesday, May 17 | MLB DFS Picks
Aside from afternoon showers in the Denver area, Wednesday’s forecast is otherwise pristine.
Check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show, at 2 p.m. ET, brought to you by Sorare. Get 1 FREE “Limited” card after completing your first 5 card purchases on the primary market!
