Sunday brings a hopping 10-game slate with a 1:05 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings and FanDuel. Contests are starting at the same time on Yahoo, though they are including all 15 games in the mix. Before you lock in lineups, there are several Stokastic tools that can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks player projections and popularity for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups, including RHP Drew Rasmussen and the Milwaukee Brewers against RHP Jake Woodford.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Pitching Target: RHP Drew Rasmussen vs. Oakland Athletics — 4.0 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,300 | FanDuel $10,500 | Yahoo $47
Terrifying. That is the best way to describe the pitching options on Sunday. Monday brings a plethora of aces as the rotations are turning over, but that is not going to help us today.
When in doubt, look to the better pitching environments that will be welcoming below-average offenses. That describes pitching-friendly Tropicana Field, where the Tampa Bay Rays will be hosting the Oakland Athletics who are averaging 3.4 runs per game in the early going. Last year Drew Rasmussen made the conversion to full-time starter, though he averaged just 80 pitches across his 28 appearances.
There is strikeout potential for Rasmussen who has a 97 mph fastball, along with an above-average cutter and a slider he works into the mix. Last season he had a 12% swinging strike rate, though that culminated in only a 21.9% strikeout rate. The 27-year-old cruised through the Nationals in his first start, holding them scoreless across six innings and striking out seven on 66 pitches.
Mid-Afternoon Slate Pitching Target: RHP Hunter Brown at Minnesota Twins — 4.1 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,900 | FanDuel $8,900 | Yahoo $38
Hunter Brown had a rough go of things on Monday, ceding four runs to the Detroit Tigers. Control was an issue and he ended up issuing three free passes, but he did have five strikeouts and he did not allow any extra base hits. The Minnesota offense is top-heavy and far better suited to handle southpaws. The only lefties in the lineup are likely to be Trevor Larnach and Nick Gordon and when that duo is in the heart of the order, it only underscores how feeble the Twins bats project. If Brown can neutralize All-Stars Brandon Buxton and Carlos Correa, he should be in line for a serviceable fantasy start. Keep an eye on the weather as there is a chance of mid-afternoon showers in the vicinity of the stadium. RHP Freddy Peralta against the Cardinals and RHP Jon Gray in Chicago against the Cubs would be the alternate options.
Late Slate Pitching Target: RHP Anthony DeSclafani vs. Kansas City Royals — 3.9 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,800 | FanDuel $8,400 | Yahoo $30
There are quite a few question marks on the late slate, but it looks like the two best options are young LHP Reid Detmers in a matchup against a righty-heavy Toronto squad and veteran RHP Anthony DeSclafani in a home matchup against the Royals. Going down to tiebreakers, the pitcher known fondly in DFS circles as Disco Stu wins out.
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Okay, the nickname really isn’t the tiebreaker, but it is still fun. Even with the recent renovations to Oracle Park, the Giant’s venue is still pitching friendly, albeit not as extreme as it was previously. Unlike Detmers, DeSclafani does not offer much in the way of strikeout upside. He is going to rely on inducing ground balls at close to a 50% rate and letting his defense do the heavy lifting. Kansas City will be rolling out a lefty-leaning lineup, though it is underwhelming in the power department. Last year was mostly lost to an injury and DeSclafani is still working his way back to a full workload, but he should be able to build on his 73 pitches logged in Monday’s opener.
MLB Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Philadelphia Phillies vs. RHP Connor Overton — 5.0 implied runs
It looks like Graham Ashcraft will be pitching tomorrow in Atlanta and Connor Overton is getting the nod on this afternoon. Overton had a long and winding path to The Show, being selected in the 15th round of the 2014 Draft after spending a couple seasons with Old Dominion University. The Virginia native has been in six different minor league organizations (MIA, WAS, SFG, TOR, PIT and CIN), while also getting brief callups from the Blue Jays, Pirates and Reds over the last two seasons. The baseball nomad will be making only his 17th MLB appearance and his lack of strikeouts and propensity to issue walks make the Phillies an excellent team to stack.
Even with Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins felled by injuries, this is a strong Philadelphia lineup. Former Nationals Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber form a tremendous one-two threat at the top of the order and they are “protected” by catcher J.T. Realmuto and veteran slugger Nick Castellanos. Salary savers Bryson Stott and Jake Cave should be in the lineup as key lefty bats and Alec Bohm can be used to round out full stacks if a third baseman is needed to complete the set.
Mid-Afternoon Slate Target: Milwaukee Brewers vs. RHP Jake Woodford — 5.1 implied runs
This season it looks like we will be going back and forth between riding with the Milwaukee offense and picking on it, depending on what type of pitchers are on the mound. Today we ride with the Brew Crew! RHP Jake Woodford has seen action across three prior seasons with the Cardinals, mostly as a multi-inning reliever. The 26-year-old was drafted out of high school with the 39th overall selection in the 2015 MLB Draft. Despite the lofty draft capital, Woodford never really panned out, with his lack of strikeouts and mediocre control leaving him best suited as a low-leverage reliever. St. Louis does not have much in the way of a starting rotation, so Woodford is going to get a look – before likely reverting to the bullpen when lefty Matthew Liberatore is called up from the minors.
Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez and catcher William Contreras should be able to find success against Woodford with their above-average power. Brice Turang is a discount dandy on DraftKings ($2,600), and he has the ability to swipe a bag if he manages to get on base. Former MVP Christian Yelich and the well-traveled Jesse Winker are reasonable options at the top of the order with the platoon advantage. However, if they get too popular, leaving them out of Milwaukee stacks is a fine way to gain differentiation from The Masses.
Late Slate Target: Los Angeles Dodgers at RHP Ryne Nelson — 5.2 implied runs
The Chase Field roof is scheduled to be open this afternoon, which in turn gives a positive boost to offenses. While the Dodgers lineup is not quite as loaded as his has been in prior seasons, it still features two MVPs at the top of the order and a trio of power bats in the middle of the card. Ryne Nelson drew a tough two-start week, facing the Padres in San Diego on Monday and now finishing things up with the Dodgers on Sunday.
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Nelson had tremendous strikeout success in the low-minors; however, he projects as a slightly below-average starter with 7.5 to 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings in The Show. Today will be only his fifth appearance in the majors and the 25-year-old has only 271 career innings in the minors. This is going to be some on the job training and that definitely favors the Los Angeles batsmen.
Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Will Smith and J.D. Martinez are an aging, but still impressive core. They are going to be the day-in and day-out building blocks for stacks. James Outman has shown flashes of upside already this season and he could get a boost in the batting order if any of the veterans gets a rest day. Looking to the boys in blue and also doing some “home run hunting” with a Blue Jays bat or two looks like the savvy DFS strategy for the late-afternoon game set.
Final Thoughts for Sunday, April 9
Keep tabs on the weather in Minnesota and of course be sure to get all the updated information for MLB DFS picks on the Stokastic MLB Strategy Show, starting at 10 a.m. ET and brought to you by Bet365.
