Tuesday has a tantalizing 12-game main slate with a 7:07 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you build lineups, several Stokastic tools can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups, including Zack Wheeler, Justin Verlander and more.
Editor’s Note: This article was originally published in the morning of 5/16/2023
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Pitching Target: RHP Justin Verlander vs. Tampa Bay Rays — 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,500 | FanDuel $10,800 | Yahoo $50
The Tampa Bay Rays have scored the most runs in the league this season, but that should not dissuade DFS gamers from rolling out RHP Justin Verlander. Yes, this is his age-40 season and his career began before DFS was a thing, but he is also the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, and he looked decent in both starts following a stint on the injured list with a low-grade muscle strain near his right shoulder.
Tampa Bay will be a far tougher test than Cincinnati and Detroit, but even at this stage in his career, Verlander gets the benefit of the doubt. He should be in the mix for around 95 pitches tonight after logging 104 in his last outing. If he can keep the bases relatively clean when the inevitable home run occurs, a quality start with half a dozen strikeouts is a realistic baseline expectation.
Evening Slate Pitching Target: RHP Cristian Javier vs. Chicago Cubs — 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,600 | FanDuel $10,000 | Yahoo $49
Last year was RHP Cristian Javier’s first as a full-time starter, and he was outstanding, with 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings and 11 quality starts in his 30 appearances. It will be tricky to see him replicate his 2.54 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Currently he has a 3.47 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, which could be something he maintains this season. He has been in good form in his last four starts, going 24.2 innings and striking out 35, with the three home runs allowed being the cost of doing business.
The projected lineup for the Chicago Cubs does have above-average pop (.161 ISO) over the last season and change, but that is accompanied by a 26.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. The resurgent 2019 National League MVP Cody Bellinger is dinged up, and pesky Nico Hoerner is on the injured list. This duo has played a key role in the Cubbies offense thus far, and their absence will be felt.
Late Slate Pitching Target: RHP Zack Wheeler at San Francisco Giants — 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,200 | FanDuel $9,400 | Yahoo $46
Tuesday has a loaded pitching slate, and even though each of today’s recommended plays is from a specific sub-slate, they are all viable in the featured contests as well. LHP Clayton Kershaw was going to be the featured hurler for this section, though ultimately the salary discount for RHP Zack Wheeler and the Coors Field Extravaganza on the main slate push the Philadelphia ace to the forefront.
The Giants will be running out their lefty-laden lineup with Wheeler on the mound, but that should not be overly concerning for the soon-to-be 33-year-old, who made his Major League debut back in the 2013 season. Wheeler just missed out on the National League Cy Young Award in 2021 when he led the league with 213 innings, 247 strikeouts and three complete games, which included a pair of shutouts.
This season his 2.59 FIP, 3.50 xFIP and 3.38 xERA are all outpacing his 3.80 actual ERA, and while his 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings are a career high, he did average 10.1 per nine over the last two years across 58 starts. Contact and plate discipline is a bit of an issue for this San Francisco squad, and against right-handers the projected lineup has a 25.9% strikeout rate and a miniscule 5.0% walk rate. Wheeler should have no issues with opposite-handed hitters either, as he has a 27.3% strikeout rate in his last 436 righty-lefty matchups.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Seattle Mariners at RHP Nick Pivetta — 5.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Looking at the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool, the Mariners are a strong option to counter the Coors Field Extravaganza. And while they are clearly not under the radar, they do provide some differentiation, particularly with the bottom third of the lineup — catcher Cal Raleigh and outfielders Teoscar Hernandez and Taylor Trammell.
Not to bury the lede, but early game-time temperatures are forecast in the low-80s and there is a 10 to 15 mph breeze out to right-center field. This has been a rough season for RHP Nick Pivetta, who has a 6.23 ERA that is actually lower than his 6.67 xERA across 34.2 innings. The strikeouts are still there with just over one per inning, but he has always been homer-prone while challenging hitters, and this year that has manifested into eight home runs and 18 extra-base hits in total.
The heart of the order will carry most of the popularity for Seattle, with Julio Rodriguez, Jarred Kelenic and Eugenio Suarez popping in models. To reiterate, the M’s are far from a sneaky team stack; however, there are plenty of ways to find differentiation with just a little forethought. The Masses will, of course, be looking to both sides of the Coors Field Extravaganza, and they will in turn think of Seattle as being sneaky. That is semi-true, but again, it all comes down to selecting the appropriate hitters for differentiation within this three-team player pool.
Latest MLB DFS Content
- MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: SP1 Nathan Eovaldi + Texas Bats (May 2)
- MLB DFS Punt Plays: Jordan Beck, Adrian Houser & More
- DraftKings Fantasy Baseball Cheat Sheet: Best Picks From MLB DFS Contest Sims | Aaron Judge (May 2 Main Slate)
- MLB DFS: Stokastic’s Tom Kennedy With TWO DraftKings MLB Wins in One Night | How the Sims Helped Him Out
- Stokastic’s NEW MLB Package: Use What Our Pros Are Using to Win Big
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Evening Slate Target: Texas Rangers vs. LHP Jared Shuster — 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
The first two big league starts for LHP Jared Shuster were a disaster, and while he is the No. 5 prospect in Atlanta’s MiLB system, he is not rated on the league-wide lists. His fastball is average at best, sitting in the low 90s, and he has relied on a plus changeup to keep hitters off balance. That works in the minors, but in The Show, without a second solid pitch, he is going to have hitters just waiting for something they like.
Most projection systems have him as a fringe starter, though as a southpaw with a good changeup, he will get other chances after Atlanta moves on. The composite average of the popular projections has him with a subpar 7.35 strikeouts per nine innings, 1.40 home runs per nine and a dreadful 3.1 walks per nine.
The Rangers set up well against southpaws, and aside from Nate Lowe, who excels in lefty-lefty matchups, the rest of the lineup will be righties or switch-hitters. Marcus Semien is always a strong option at the top of the order, as is cleanup hitter Adolis Garcia. Today we can add in Josh Jung at the hot corner and Jonah Heim to fill out the catcher requirement on DraftKings and Yahoo. Ezequiel Duran may be the punt du jour on DraftKings and FanDuel, depending on where the shortstop lands in the batting order. Outfielder Robbie Grossman is another punt option, and the switch-hitter does his best work when swinging the stick from the right-side of the plate.
Late Slate Target: Arizona Diamondbacks at LHP Kyle Muller — 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Sadly, the Arizona stack was right in line with the 5.2 run total that was projected by oddsmakers, as the Diamondbacks cruised to a 5-2 victory. We can go right back to the D-backs tonight in their matchup with LHP Kyle Muller. The 25-year-old was a prospect of note for Atlanta, but he has not been able to find success in The Show. He has a 6.10 ERA over 87 career innings, and while that has been somewhat unlucky, as evidenced by his 5.07 xFIP and 4.80 FIP, he currently projects as a back-of-the-rotation starter … at best.
In each of the last six starts for Muller, he has allowed a home run as well as issuing multiple walks. Across 27.1 innings in this timeframe, he has a paltry 19 strikeouts while allowing 28 runs for a 9.22 ERA and nearly 2.3 baserunners per inning.
Arizona will be dusting off Evan Longoria and Nick Ahmed with a lefty on the mound, and this duo provides ample salary relief on DraftKings and FanDuel. Depending on where he slots into the batting order, Emmanuel Rivera is another potential discount dandy.
The main focus, of course, will be on switch-hitter Ketel Marte, who is all but assured five plate appearances from his leadoff slot. Slugger Christian Walker is a strong DFS play while also being an intriguing target in the home run market, with his early line of +310 to knock one into the stands. Lourdes Gurriel hit his sixth dinger of the season last night, and while he tends to have more power against same-handed pitching, he is likely to be batting third or fifth tonight, and we can look to him for added synergy in full stacks.
Did you know that you can get one free month of Stokastic+ Platinum for signing up and making your first bet at BetMGM? Claim here today!
Final Thoughts for Tuesday, May 16 | MLB DFS Picks
The late-afternoon slate has some weather concerns in Baltimore, and once again there are roving storms in the Rocky Mountains. That said, looking at the early morning forecast, it looks like Coors Field will mostly avoid anything more than the edge of a rain shower.
Check out today’s Stokastic MLB Strategy Show, brought to you by Sorare. Get 1 FREE “Limited” card after completing your first 5 card purchases on the primary market!
