MLB Strikeout Props: Bryan Woo Going Toe to Toe With MVP (August 3)

Pitchers are getting their first action with new teams post-Trade Deadline, old vets are crawling out of the woodwork to make starts, and young arms are being exposed/living up to the hype left and right. That is creating a wild pitching slate of question marks with strikeout props, but luckily we have MLB Bet Pro to guide decisions. Once again, let’s take a close look at the model and see what strikeout props are standing out for the Thursday slate.

But remember that these are just three of the +EV MLB player props on MLB Bet Pro; the model has dozens of other options, which you can access by signing up now to get Stokastic’s Bet Pro offer: One trial month for $24.95 that gets you access to MLB Bet Pro, plus access to our Premium Chalkboard!

Free MLB Strikeout Props & Picks From MLB Bet Pro | Aug. 3

3. Adrian Houser O/U 4.5 Strikeouts

Houser’s stats this year are middling at best, but he is on quite the hot streak, at least in terms of this over. He has gone over 4.5 three times in his last five starts, and those just so happen to account for all but one of his overs on that line this year. Whether or not Houser has turned a corner to become a regular five-strikeout pitcher is to be seen; his season and career metrics, however, suggest he will drift back to earth.

Houser is averaging 7.0 strikeouts per nine, which paces him to reach five strikeouts after 6.2 innings. He has one start of that length in 2023. And though the Pirates are trotting out prospect-heavy lineups of late, their whiff rate is hovering around league average. What is not around league average is Houser’s strikeout rate of 17.5%, which would rank 10th worst in MLB if he had innings to qualify.

The modest line of 4.5 is keeping this competitive, but MLB Bet Pro still likes the over at a 53% win rate and 4% EV.

Best MLB Player Prop: Adrian Houser Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105, PointsBet)

React App

2. Max Scherzer O/U 7.5 Strikeouts

Scherzer is gearing up for his first start with the Rangers, and it is tough to know what to expect. He was undeniably a disappointment with the Mets this year, and his career stats in Arlington are pretty mediocre, but the sample size of 78 batters faced is probably not enough to draw major conclusions. That said, Scherzer is posting some of his worst numbers in years and is still getting a hefty 7.5 line for his strikeouts against the White Sox.

Chicago’s lineup is bad and has gotten worse following the deadline, as it traded its No. 2 slugger in Jake Burger. However, Burger also brought a sky-high 31% strikeout rate to the middle of the order. Without him, the White Sox may be less vulnerable to strikeouts moving forward, and they were already only 1 percentage point above league average in strikeout rate. This is not a crazy boost for Scherzer’s whiff potential. Plus, he has only struck out eight or more in seven of 19 starts; he has the same number of games with at least four earned runs.

Change of home is not helping Scherzer’s projections today, with MLB Bet Pro tabbing him for 6.8 strikeouts and a 57% win rate on under 7.5.

Best MLB Player Prop: Max Scherzer Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-122, FanDuel)

Latest MLB DFS Content

1. Bryan Woo O/U 6.5 Strikeouts

There was a six-start stretch from mid-June to early July where Woo was showing some great things in his rookie season. He did not allow more than two runs in any of those outings, and he struck out seven or more four times. Well, he has come crashing back to earth a bit over his last three, giving up 14 runs total in 14.1 innings and striking out just 11. Woo’s strikeout numbers are still quite good, with 9.9 per nine innings and a 25.8% rate, but his June production is carrying those marks quite a bit at this point.

To be fair to Woo’s chances of exceeding his 6.5 line today, recent trends are not totally working in the Angels’ favor either; only four teams have struck out more often over the last 30 days. That said, Los Angeles is also eighth in OPS and sixth in home runs during this timeframe, so this is a lineup that can still get to Woo early, even if it strikes out a bit. Woo has yet to record an out in the sixth inning, and averaging 9.9 strikeouts per nine, he is on pace to get his seventh strikeout after 6.1 innings. As such, MLB Bet Pro projects him for 5.3 tonight, giving the under on 6.5 a 4% EV at -160.

Best MLB Player Prop: Bryan Woo Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-160, BetMGM)

Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.