We’re back with a small four-game slate on Saturday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening. Nonetheless, onto our NBA DFS contrarian picks.
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today
Contrarian Stud — Damian Lillard: Milwaukee Bucks-Orlando Magic
Coming off a nine-game slate where the contrarian plays were plentiful, we’re back to tough sledding with only four games on tonight’s docket. That said, there are still some diamonds in the rough, and Damian Lillard looks like the clear top contrarian spend-up option at $9,300 on DraftKings. Despite not projecting great from a point-per-dollar perspective, Lillard has tournament-winning upside anytime he steps on the floor, and that’s enticing on a small slate like tonight’s.
As of this writing, Lillard is projected to be only 4.2% owned on DraftKings. With an optimal percentage of 7.3%, it’s clear why Lillard stands out in tournaments. After missing Thursday night’s game against the Pacers, Lillard is again questionable tonight with a sore right calf. Assuming he plays, however, the field still isn’t getting to him with any regularity, and he is an elite way to get different in large-field GPPs.
Contrarian Mid-Tier Pick — Josh Richardson: Miami Heat-Atlanta Hawks
In what looks like a game of the night from a DFS perspective, there is a lot to like about Miami in Atlanta this evening. With both Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler out for the Heat, the field is flocking to Duncan Robinson and Kyle Lowry as we have them projected as the two highest-owned players on the slate. Robinson and Lowry are really good plays tonight in their own right, but Josh Richardson stands out as the top contrarian play.
Currently projected to be optimal 13% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings, Richardson is only expected to be in 6% of lineups. While there is no doubt that Richardson is more of a solid player than a spectacular one, he is in a great spot tonight against Atlanta, and he should pick up a bunch of extra minutes as the Heat try to fill in for Herro and Butler. With a few popular players really hard to get away from tonight, Richardson is a great differentiator on a Miami team getting a ton of love.
Contrarian Value — Dru Smith: Miami Heat-Atlanta Hawks
Sticking with the Heat, Dru Smith is emerging as the top contrarian value play on DraftKings at $3,400. As DraftKings continues to do a much better job of consistently pricing up players, there seems to be a definite lack of viable value pieces priced under $4,000. As such, we’ve had to dumpster dive a bit for contrarian value, and that theme continues tonight with Smith.
While he is unlikely to be the reason tournaments are won tonight, Smith is a valuable filler piece with his $3,400 price tag opening up a lot of room for different types of roster construction. Projected for just 15.85 DraftKings points tonight, rostering Smith is much more about being able to fit the pieces around him than Smith himself. That said, our Boom/Bust tool has Smith projected to be optimal 10.7% of the time on this slate, making it clear why his price tag is so valuable. With only 7.7% of the field projected to roster him, there are plenty of reasons to like him as a differentiator in tournaments.
Looking for more NBA DFS advice? You’ve come to the right place. Sign up for our NBA DFS Premium Package for access to our player projections, ownership projections and our state-of-the-art NBA DFS simulation tools.
