There are just six games on the evening NHL slate for Black Friday but there is no shortage of stars (and Stars) on the docket. Let’s dig into which options to focus on and which can provide some cheap value. Nonetheless, onto our best NHL DFS picks today.
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NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Picks Today: Center
Jack Hughes (NJ vs. BUF): DraftKings – $9,100 | FanDuel – $10,300
There has been a bigger role for Hughes since his return from injury as teammate Nico Hischier is still missing from the lineup. Hughes’s last three games have seen him skate at least 22 minutes in each outing, managing 17 shots on goal in that span. His shot attempts per minute this season is fourth in the entire league, so additional ice time will only help the shot-volume floor remain high. The middle Hughes brother has reached the DraftKings shot bonus in 5 of 12 full games he’s played this season.
New Jersey has other injuries, and it has forced them to stack their top line with Hughes, Jesper Bratt, and Tyler Toffoli. In a little over 52 minutes together at 5-on-5, that trio has created over 84 shot attempts, 42 shots, and 3.7 expected goals per 60. Those are huge offensive numbers and, additionally, this entire line is on New Jersey’s top power play unit.  It gives them perfect correlation against a Buffalo team giving the seventh-most power plays per game.
Stokastic projections have Hughes leading the slate tonight in expected fantasy points, slightly edging out Nathan MacKinnon, and those two are far ahead of the other centers. At his level of ice time, Hughes is fine for cash games or as part of a Devils stack for tournaments.
Casey Mittelstadt (BUF at NJ): DraftKings – $3,500 | FanDuel – $5,500
On the other side of that Devils/Sabres game, Mittelstadt was moved to Buffalo’s top line early in their game yesterday. There are a few injuries on the Buffalo side, and it got Mittelstadt up to a whopping 24:01 in ice time. He won’t (or shouldn’t) get to that mark in this game, but he has skated an average of 20:59 in the five games since (and including) the injury to teammate Tage Thompson. He is being leaned on a lot more, and it’s led to points in three straight games.
Mittelstadt should be on a line with Jeff Skinner, and that duo has been excellent offensively this season. In nearly 120 minutes on the ice at 5-on-5, the Sabres are up to 37 shots, 3.5 expected goals, and 6.5 actual goals per 60. They are riding hot shooting percentages, but their level of offense has been high-end besides that. Though Mittelstadt is not a shooter, he has a good chance of finding the scoresheet with the additional ice time, high-end line mates, and top power play role.
Among all DK pivots priced under $4,000 tonight, Mittelstadt ranks second by point projections. It gives him one of the best point-per-dollar values at the position so he can be used as a one-off salary saver. The value is much worse on FanDuel, so for a cheaper center, consider his teammate Dylan Cozens ($4,600) who has a much better value proposition.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger
Jake Guentzel (PIT vs. TOR): DraftKings – $7,300 | FanDuel – $8,100
Even with 22 points in 19 games, we could say Guentzel has been a bit unlucky this season by shooting 9.8%; he has never been below 12.9% in any of his seven seasons and averaged 15.3% over the prior three campaigns. He has averaged 21:49 in ice time in the two games since the injury to line mate Bryan Rust. Even without Rust on his line, Pittsburgh’s top trio is generating roughly the same amount of expected and actual goals, so there is a lot of offence flowing. For a line that has been creating extremely high rates of scoring chances this season, it’s good news for Guentzel.
The key for Guentzel is he’s staying involved offensively. Cold streaks can be an indication of a downturn in play, but Guentzel’s five straight goalless games have seen him take 35 shot attempts. In a five-game stretch earlier this season, he had 36 shot attempts that turned into three goals and four assists. The ice time and continuing offensive creation are all good signs for him.
Guentzel is a top-10 winger by point projections tonight, but his elevated price does not make him a good value. That difference is also keeping his ownership low, however, and that makes him, and his line, a target for tournaments on either site.
Lawson Crouse (ARI at VGK): DraftKings – $4,200 | FanDuel – $5,300
One big storyline for Vegas this season has been the underwhelming performance of the Chandler Stephenson–Mark Stone duo. In nearly 150 minutes at 5-on-5 leading to Stephenson’s injury in early November, this duo was outshot 92-60, lost the high-danger scoring chance differential 40-24, and great goaltending was the only thing that kept them from being worse than a minus-1 differential in goals. Things have not gotten better since his return from injury, being outshot 21-15 and outscored 3-0 in three games.
All that is raised because Vegas is one of the few teams on the slate that didn’t play on Friday, and we saw how all the home teams fared. Stone’s line is rarely used against top lines, so Crouse should see a fair bit of that matchup tonight. The Arizona flank has nine goals in his last 11 games, managing over 17 minutes a night and averaging over three shots per game in that span.
On DraftKings, Crouse has a top-10 projection among wingers priced under $5,000, and the same for FanDuel for those under $6,000. He is a better value on the former than the latter, but can be used as a one-off tournament flank on either site.
Anthony Beauvillier (VAN at SJ): DraftKings – $3,000 | FanDuel – $3,400
As is the case when any team faces San Jose, this is a tremendous matchup for Beauvillier. Even since allowing 10 goals in back-to-back games, the Sharks are last in the league in shots allowed per minute at 5-on-5, 30th by shots allowed on the penalty kill, but very good goaltending has kept them near the middle of the league by goals against. Regardless of small-sample goaltending, this stays a great spot for offence for Sharks opponents.
Beauvillier was moved to JT Miller’s line recently and because he’s been on the team’s third and fourth lines this season, it is easy to overlook that Beauvillier is third among the team’s forwards in shot attempts per minute at 5-on-5. He has received a huge upgrade in line mates and is going to get easy matchups going into San Jose. It is a very good opportunity for him to find the scoresheet.
Among wingers priced under $4,000 on FanDuel tonight, Beauvillier is second by expected fantasy output, and that gives him tremendous value. The value is still very good on DraftKings, if less than FanDuel, so he can be a salary-saver on either site. Just watch for high ownership as this is the most appealing matchup on the slate.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defense
Cale Makar (COL vs. CGY): DraftKings – $8,100 | FanDuel – $8,600
Makar’s first 15 games this season saw him skate an average of 23:43 per night. Injuries of one sort or other have piled up on Colorado’s blue line, so Makar has seen his role jump and it has pushed his per-game ice time to 26:10 over his last four appearances. With Calgary in town and playing their second game in as many nights, Makar will face goaltender Dan Vladar, who has an .868 save percentage in five starts this year. He has allowed at least three goals in each appearance and 19 goals overall. With Makar leading the league in points per minute, getting more ice time, and facing a weak goaltender, it is a good spot for him.
Colorado’s top defenseman is the most expensive at his position on either site tonight, but he’s also carrying the highest projection at the position. His price, and the high-end forwards across the slate, will likely keep him from being among the highest-owned rearguards, so he is fine to add to tournament lineups tonight.
Alexander Romanov (NYI vs. PHI): DraftKings – $3,000 | FanDuel – $3,700
Injuries hit New York’s blue line in their game yesterday as both Adam Pelech and Sebastian Aho left very early in the game and did not return. We won’t know their status until an hour or two before puck drop, but the injuries pushed Romanov over 30 minutes last night. He won’t skate that much today, but he should skate heavy minutes with the team’s reluctance to lean on their call-ups. For a defender averaging 2.1 shots and 1.9 blocks per game, there is a high peripheral floor tonight as his ice time is expected to rise from typical levels.
Among all defensemen priced under $4,000 on either site, Romanov ranks second by fantasy point projections tonight, and that is giving him a great point-per-dollar value on both. We will get updates on their blue line late today, but the Islanders’ shot blocker has a high peripheral floor tonight.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
Ilya Sorokin (NYI vs. PHI): DraftKings – $7,500 | FanDuel – $8,500
The Islanders are giving up a lot of shot volume this season and it’s why Sorokin has faced at least 36 shots in eight of his last 10 starts. That 10-game stretch has seen him average 15.8 DK points per outing, despite winning just three of those matchups. With the Islanders (likely) missing a couple regular defensemen, he could see high volume again here tonight and that means a high-end DFS performance is very possible tonight. He hasn’t been as elite as recent seasons, but he has been good, and the shots against help cushion his fantasy value.
Philadelphia isn’t a high-volume shooting team and that is keeping Sorokin’s expected saves near the middle of the slate for tonight. However, his reasonable DK price and low expected goals against makes him one of Stokastic’s top-3 point-per-dollar values in net tonight.
His elevated FanDuel price means he’s not as good of a value on that site. For a cheaper option, consider Casey DeSmith (VAN, $7,300) in a very soft matchup against San Jose.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
BUF1: Jeff Skinner – Casey Mittelstadt – Alex Tuch
The only teams this season with a lower save percentage than New Jersey are Minnesota, Edmonton, and Carolina. In 11 games since the Hischier injury, the Devils have given up at least two goals in each outing, and 41 goals in total. Injuries should force this Buffalo line to skate a lot of minutes and they are perfectly correlated with the top power play unit. Going back to last season, this Buffalo trio has created 3.6 expected goals and 5.4 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. A road back-to-back is a tough spot, but New Jersey is on a back-to-back of their own and has very shoddy goaltending.
This line is coming in with a bit of positive leverage on DraftKings, and negative on FanDuel, but they are also a top-5 line by top-2 stack probability, per the Top Stacks tool. At their price, they are fine to use on either site tonight.
VGK3: Paul Cotter – William Karlsson – Michael Amadio
With the duo of Karlsson-Cotter on the ice this season, Vegas is creating 3.2 expected goals and 3.7 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Those numbers are better than either of Vegas’s top two lines. Conversely, Arizona is giving up over 50% more expected goals against with their top line off the ice, and this Vegas line won’t see much of that matchup. Arizona is also missing top defensive defenseman Juuso Välimäki, and Karlsson has jumped to Vegas’s top power play unit. This is a good 5-on-5 opponent for this line, and there is some additional power play time being included, too.
Because of their low price and high-end options aplenty elsewhere, this line is coming in with negative leverage on DK, per the Top Stacks tool. They are right on their top-2 probability on FanDuel, though. They are fine to use on either site for DFS players looking to use a cheap stack to pay up elsewhere.
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*Additional best NHL DFS picks today stats from Natural Stat Trick
