Sunday’s NBA slate brings the final matchup of the second round as the Boston Celtics host the Philadelphia 76ers to determin which team will advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. Contests lock at 2:30 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups, including Joel Embiid, Jayson Tatum and more.
NBA DFS Picks Today: Sunday, May 14
Core Play of the Day — Joel Embiid: Philadelphia 76ers-New York Knicks
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 55.61 | FanDuel: 53.93
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 74.3% | FanDuel: 60.9%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $11,400 | FanDuel: $17,000
Will Joel Embiid be able to lead Philadelphia to a Game 7 victory, as 6.5 point road dogs? It looked like Lady Luck was with the ‘Sixers as they snuck out a 116-115 overtime victory in Game 4 and then went into Boston, where they cruised to a 115-103 victory. The Celtics took care of business in Game 6 and brought the series back to TD Garden for the deciding match.
After missing the final game of Round 1 and the opener for this series with a knee injury, Embiid looked a little rusty in Game 2, which was a 34 point loss for the 76ers. Over the last four games has has looked better and better, while averaging 41.0 minutes and 21.8 field goal attempts. This has culminated in 30.8 points, 10.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 3.6 combined blocks and steals.
James Harden continues to deliver steady fantasy production with 40 or more fantasy points five times in this series. He led Philly to a Game 1 victory, without Embiid by scoring 45 points and 60-plus fantasy points. The other upside performance was Game 4 when he went 16 of 23 from the field, scored 42 points and nearly 80 fantasy points. Embiid and Harden have an amazing two-man game and this duo is going to touch the ball on nearly every possession this afternoon.
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Tyrese Maxey has attempted 20 or more field goals three times this series, including each of the last two games. If he can get this volume again, he should flirt with 40 fantasy points. Tobias Harris is the glue guy in the starting unit, doing whatever it is that needs doing. Mostly it is defense and rebounding, but he is still a capable scorer, though the fourth option on most possessions. De’Anthony Melton is also mostly being asked to play defense and make the extra pass, he should play around half of the game, though coming off the bench caps those potential ticks of the clock.
Today we are likely to see the key players get maximum minutes, which will further cut the reserves court time. P.J. Tucker is in this group, even though he is a starter – but he does have at least a chance of staying on the court longer if he can drop in a couple of corner 3s as he is still a staunch defender and rebounder in half court sets.
Georges Niang will at least play, but it could be for only a couple of stints totaling 10-12 minutes. Paul Reed and Danuel House would be the only other ‘Sixers we should expect to see, outside of mop-up duty, though they will be hard pressed to get more than a handful of minutes, unless coach Glenn Rivers ends up just rolling out players in a desperate, last gasp gambit.
Jayson Tatum: Boston Celtics-Philadelphia 76ers
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 51.47 | FanDuel: 50.32
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 68.5% | FanDuel: 60.7%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $17,500
The Celtics and Jayson Tatum have a chance to return to the Eastern Conference Finals, which will bring Boston on step closer to the championship that fell just beyond reach last season. Tatum has authored three fantasy performances of at least 60 points and ignoring he Game 2 dud, he averaged nearly 50 fantasy points in two others. The offensive opportunities will be there, but how many he can convert will be the key to his fantasy output and the team’s success.
On Thursday, Jaylen Brown failed to score 23 or more points for the first time in his last nine appearances and he also had a postseason high four turnovers. The salary makes it tough to provide a fervent recommendation in the fantasy realm, but he is clearly the second best fantasy producer on the Celtics.
Working our way down the roster, Marcus Smart, Derrick White and Malcolm Brogdon will be getting most of the backcourt minutes. While all three can play on the court at the same time, usually when Tatum or Brown is on the bench, it makes sense to consider using only two of the three in any single lineup. This is not a hard and fast rule, but one that is likely to “maximize or optimize” the Boston fantasy production to the fullest extent possible. White has the lowest salary, though he is also likely so have the fewest minutes, so there are tradeoffs.
Looking at the frontcourt, there is a decent chance that Robert Williams III starts alongside Al Horford after this strategy worked in Game 6. That further compresses the minutes for White, but it gives Williams a chance at something in the upper-20s and that is nearly a 10 minute boost to what his baseline looks like when he is coming off the bench. Horford is a strong play from a fantasy point per dollar perspective and the soon-to-be 37-year-old is still getting it done in the postseason after having his workload managed earlier this year.
Boston has basically rolled with a seven-man rotation the last couple games, so the likes of Grant Williams, Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser getting minutes this afternoon is situational at best.
Additional NBA DFS Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
With only one game on the schedule, finding “good” betting opportunities is tricky. This afternoon those who are feeling daring can consider taking the under on Tatum’s 9.5 rebounds prop. If you think that Williams is going to start again, which does make sense, that means another 6-10 minutes of an elite rebounder playing alongside Boston’s franchise player.
NBA Bet Pro currently has Tatum projected for 43.3 minutes and 9.28 rebounds. This wager has a 57% expected success rate, however with the under sitting at slightly positive money at +106 at BetMGM, this play projects out to a steady 3.2% expected ROI.
Tatum has had double-digit rebounds in four of the six games this series, but if we consider the ways he sees fewer minutes – foul trouble, lop-sided scenarios, in-game injury or just plain ineffectiveness – along with having to compete with teammates Horford, Williams and Brown, plus Embiid, Harden and Harris – there are many paths to the 25-year-old just missing out on the double-digit boards needed to secure the over on Sunday’s milestone.
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Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Tonight’s set of matchups is simply amazing. But as a note, when you start to build your DFS lineups, be sure to let us do the heavy lifting for you by tuning into the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock show at 2:30 p.m. ET on YouTube, brought to you by PrizePicks — new customers sign up by going through this link and receive 30 days of Stokastic+ Premium AND a deposit match up to $100.
