Sunday is Mother’s Day, so do not lose sight of that as well as the MLB action that will be underway at 1:35 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you build lineups, several Stokastic tools can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups, including Logan Gilbert, Andrew Heaney and more.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Pitching Target: RHP Logan Gilbert at Detroit Tigers — 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,400 | FanDuel $10,100 | Yahoo $45
It is still a small sample size, though through seven starts this season, RHP Logan Gilbert has an 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings rate, which is well above last year’s 8.4 and his career average of 9.2. The 26-year-old also has 26 quality starts in 63 opportunities and he has been economical with 15.5 pitches per inning.
On tap is a matchup against the Detroit offense which is abysmal to say the least. Since the beginning of last year, this current collection of Tigers has a 77 wRC+. Weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that seeks to neutralize variables such as park factor and create a league-wide scoring efficiency baseline of 100. This indicates the Motor City Kitties are scoring runs 23% less efficiently than league average and they are essentially two full standard deviations behind the Mets and Dodgers when using the same parameters. Enjoy!
Afternoon Slate Pitching Target: RHP Hunter Brown at Chicago Whites Sox — 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,000 | FanDuel $10,300 | Yahoo $43
The afternoon sub-slate has several interesting pitcher matchups, any of which are also viable on the featured slate. RHP Louie Varland is a reasonable SP2 on DraftKings and Yahoo. Veteran RHP Marcus Stroman is off to a strong start this season and while he has recorded a decent 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings, that would be the highest mark of his career as well as nearly a full strikeout above his typical season. This duo also presents emergency pivot options if the weather in Chicago ends up looking like it is going to cause a delay during the first six innings.
Rookie RHP Hunter Brown has had mixed results this season, but that is to be expected from young hurlers as they hone their craft against the best of the best. He has tallied a strikeout per inning and ceded only one longball across 39 frames. Three of his starts have seen him close the book on the seventh inning, though in the other four he made it into, but did not finishing the fifth inning.
The White Sox are without Eloy Jimenez and Yasmani Grandal is banged up. It sounds like Jake Burger will be able to return from the injured list this afternoon, but he is a strikeout candidate along with his power. This is a mostly neutral matchup for opposing right-handed hurlers, though Yoan Moncada and catcher Seby Zavala are similar to Burger with each member of this trio strikeout out in nearly one-third of their at bats against righties.
Late Slate Pitching Target: LHP Andrew Heaney at Oakland Athletics — 4.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,800 | FanDuel $9,200 | Yahoo $40
After getting five afternoon games last Sunday, there are only three on the Mother’s Day docket. RHP Logan Webb is likely the “safest” option, but LHP Andrew Heaney has more strikeout upside and a better matchup against the Athletics in Oakland.
The A’s are actually league average over the last season and change against southpaws, particularly when they are running out as many right-handed bats as possible. Of course that is a collective group effort and while there is some pop in this lineup with Ramon Laureano, Brent Rooker and Jesus Aguilar when they hold the platoon-advantage, thy also strike out nearly 25% of the time.
Injuries have long been an issue for the 31-year-old southpaw how has played in just 144 MLB games despite making his debut in The Show all the way back in 2014. When healthy he is easily a 10.0 strikeouts per nine innings arm, including maintaining that ratio in two of the last three seasons when he was “relatively” healthy. Do not let the 5.25 ERA dissuade you from rolling with the venerable veteran. Most of that damage (13 earned runs) came in the opener against Baltimore and two starts ago against Arizona. In his five other outings, Heaney has seen three or fewer runners cross the plate.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Tampa Bay Rays at RHP Clarke Schmidt — 4.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
Sunday brings a plethora of good matchups with teams like Atlanta, Miami and Seattle facing home run prone pitchers. Tampa Bay also has that distinction, while also getting a major park upgrade, particularly for left-handed batsmen. RHP Clarke Schmidt is coming off a strong showing, but that was against the Oakland Athletics, so it needs to be discounted.
Schmidt profiles better as a multi-inning reliever, but for the time being he is going to be in the rotation. Working against him is an elevated walk rate as well as some troublesome power issues, that are not mitigated enough by his above average strikeout stuff.
The Rays have several lefties with Brandon Lowe, Luke Raley and switch-hitter Wander Franco. Unfortunately they will likely be distributed across the lineup, which makes it harder to maximize their synergy. Josh Lowe will likely be hitting ninth and he has displayed some power, so he can be employed as part of a “wraparound” stack. In a fun twist, 31-year-old Yandy Diaz currently leads the league with 32 runs and a .425 OBP, which makes him a solid option most days from his leadoff slot.
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Afternoon Slate Target: Milwaukee Brewers vs. RHP Jordan Lyles — 5.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
Even though RHP Jordan Lyles led the league in home runs allowed back in 2021 and he is atop the leaderboard this season, there are at least half of the teams in the league that would be happy to have him on their roster to simply eat innings and give the relief core a day of rest. While he has a 6.20 ERA and has ceded multiple home runs during six different starts, Most are with few if any ducks on the pond, because Lyles does not issue many free passes.
In his last start, against the White Sox, he pitched a complete game with six baserunners and a pair of home runs. How many teams would love to get nine innings with only four runs allowed from a starting pitcher – the answer of course is most. He also had a similar showing against the Rangers, Lyles went eight innings, with three earned runs along with a pair of round-trippers.
While a full-stack is fine, it may not have the upside gamers are hoping for if Lyles continues to absorb punishment. Perhaps we can have our cake and eat it too, by doing a little selective home run hunting and hoping stacks are not fully engaged with many runners on base. Rowdy Tellez and Willie Adames are a solid lefty-righty combo that should do the trick. After winning the 2018 NL MVP and finishing second in 2019, Christian Yelich embarked on a three season swoon. It looks like he may be pulling out of the extended nosedive and he too can be considered as a home run threat in this matchup.
Late Slate Target: Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics — 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
There is some question as to which sacrificial lamb starting pitcher will be taking the mound for Oakland. On Sunday morning some sites – including MLB.com – are reporting RHP Drew Rucinski and others LHP JP Sears – Both can be attacked by the Texas bats, regardless of if it is the righty or lefty on the hill. Yesterday RHP James Kaprielian was recalled from the minors to replace rookie Mason Miller. The prevailing thought Saturday was that Sears would be on the bump, prior to this transaction being announced.
Rucinski has averaged 87 pitches in his three starts and Sears has been just over 90 in his seven outings, so this is no likely to be a piggyback situation. However, we are all but assured of the Rangers getting to the beleaguered Oakland bullpen and that is where the fantasy party should continue regardless of who starts the game.
Adolis Garcia is an often overlooked hitter in the DFS world and he has elite power against southpaws or same-handed hurlers. He is a core building block for any Texas stack and he is also an interesting option in the home run market.
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While we would prefer Nathaniel Lowe against Rucinski, he does have a stellar .367 wOBA and .191 ISO in lefty-lefty matchups over the last season and change, which is similar to his production when holding the platoon-advantage.
Switch-hitting catcher Jonah Heim had the day off, so he should be back in the lineup today and he is a great way to fulfill the pesky backstop requirement on DraftKing and Yahoo. Marcus Semien, Josh Jung and switch-hitting outfielder Robbie Grossman can be employed as part of a full-stack, depending on personal preference, positional need and salary cap constraints.
Final Thoughts for Sunday, May 14 | MLB DFS Picks
Chicago is the only real concerning venue with rain in the area throughout the day with increasing coverage. Depending on when it arrives for the early afternoon start, we should have more actionable information from the forecast.
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