Wednesday marks the middle of the workweek with a nifty nine-game slate beginning at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Scottie Barnes is the clear top option from a fantasy-point-per-dollar and upside combination perspective across the main NBA DFS sites. Then we have the highest-ever projected point total, plus a trio of superstars at the top of the player pool. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Wednesday, December 13
Scottie Barnes: Toronto Raptors vs. Atlanta Hawks
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 48.29 | FanDuel: 47.73
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 18.1% | FanDuel: 20.2%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $8,900
Clearly the Raptors have become Scottie Barnes’ team, and he is the ascending alpha with Fred VanVleet in Houston and Pascal Siakam struggling somewhat this season. Toronto made the decision to hand the keys over to Barnes by letting VanVleet move on to collect a huge bag from the Rockets. This season, Barnes has seen a 10-fantasy-point increase over his first two years, with career highs of 19.8 points, 9.0 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.7 blocks and 1.2 steals. The best and most amazing part of what is a 20%-or-better improvement across the board is that Barnes is averaging 35 minutes per game, which is in line with his first two seasons.
DraftKings missed the boat with the Toronto salaries, with several key rotation players getting a discount of a couple hundred dollars from just five games ago. When that is combined with the matchup against the porous Atlanta defense, it is resulting in O.G. Anunoby, Dennis Schroder in a “Remember Me?!” game and Jakob Poeltl being three of the five most popular players, with Siakam and Gary Trent Jr. joining Barnes in the top 15.
FanDuel is slightly different, with Siakam in the top 5 and Barnes, Anunoby, and Schroder hovering just outside of the 10 most popular plays. This could change a little as we get injury news from some of the other teams, but pretty much anyone in a Raptors jersey is someone to roster tonight.
Joel Embiid: Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 63.06 | FanDuel: 62.31
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: <5.0% | FanDuel: <5.0%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $11,800 | FanDuel: $12,600
The reigning NBA MVP has missed three of the last 10 games, but in the seven he has played, he has posted some absurd numbers. During this stretch he is averaging 34.8 minutes and 21.6 field goal attempts with a 54.1% conversion rate, which has culminated in 36.0 points, 12.0 rebounds, 7.1 assists, and 3.5 combined blocks and steals. This works out to 67.7 DraftKings and 69.3 FanDuel points or just shy of TWO fantasy points per minute.
Yes, he takes up a center spot and he is also the most expensive player on either site, but Embiid currently is projected for sub-5% popularity, and even as more value plays appear, it would be a surprise to see him crest too far into double-digit popularity.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers
Is a 258.5 projected point total even legal in most states?!
Tonight we have a game that could float into a 260.0 game total on some of the more aggressive sportsbooks, and it has been pushed to 259.0 at a couple different points prior to this article being posted just after noon ET. This total is beyond descriptors at this point and something that seemed all but unthinkable at the beginning of this season and was outlandish even as recently as Thanksgiving, yet here we are …
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Tyrese Haliburton round out the top 3 on the salary sheet, trailing only Embiid. This duo is not going to break the bank by any conventional definition, and the savvy gamer is going to want to make sure to have them represented in their tournament portfolio.
Antetokounmpo ranks fourth overall on a fantasy-point-per-dollar basis on DraftKings, and he is 10th on FanDuel, though three center-only players are ahead of him on the blue site. Haliburton is eight spots behind Antetokounmpo on DraftKings but essentially in a statistical tie on FanDuel.
The top median fantasy point projected lineup on DraftKings is 272.3, with the best Antetokounmpo lineup at 269.1 and the Haliburton version at 267.3. On FanDuel they are 316.3, 314.8 and 315.8. Adding in a few other fun scenarios, the best Embiid lineup on DraftKings is 265.7, and on FanDuel it is 309.9; in a fun twist, Barnes appears in nine of the top 10 lineups on both sites, with the superstar trio not on any.
Clearly these are just median results, so they do not take into account range of outcomes, but it is interesting to see how the various dynamics come into play. It is even more fun using the Lineup Generator and the Simulation tools, which bring the full Stokastic information suite to analyze additional variables such as how the rest of the field will build their lineups, overall leverage, ceiling outcomes and, of course, creating positive expected value rosters.
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Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs
LeBron James played 40 minutes last night, and Anthony Davis saw 37 minutes of run. The Lakers being only favored by 2.0 points against the Spurs seems to indicate there is some expectation that one of these superstars is going to be out tonight. Unfortunately, Los Angeles did lose a 127-125 thriller in Dallas. These two teams play again Friday, with a rematch in San Antonio. Davis has been dealing with a sore hip and he appeared in some discomfort in the first half, so this will be a situation to monitor.
If both players are out, then pretty much everyone with a regular rotation role will become a desirable option. If just one of this duo is out, it could be a little more isolated — meaning if Davis is out, then Jaxon Hayes is likely to draw a start and Christian Wood could approach minutes in the low-20s. That becomes even more secure if Jarred Vanderbilt (heel) sits for a second consecutive game. LeBron sitting would have D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves absorbing a fair number of the available field goal attempts, and each would get an uptick in their facilitation duties.
DraftKings and FanDuel did a reasonably good job of adjusting salaries for the secondary options, so this is a wait-and-see situation.
Additional NBA Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
Tyrese Maxey currently has a -108 line available for the under on his 37.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop. Per the -131 “True Odds” (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a well-above-average 9% expected ROI, resulting from the inefficient line.
It is crucial to take advantage of OddsShopper to look at all the available lines since that can easily be worth another 2% to 3% ROI, even on perfectly neutral bets, based on how the different books value things. Looking at the screenshot below, the -137 line posted at Pinnacle with PRA that drops to 36.5 is clearly a tough number. That in turn should elevate our interest in the books to the right, particularly FanDuel, which is an excellent offering that is likely to evaporate quickly.
NBA Bet Pro has Maxey projected for 38.1 minutes 25.02 points, 4.30 rebounds and 6.82 assists for 36.14 PRA. While his median projection is below the 37.5 prop line, this does not take into account the expected range of outcomes. The current available wager has a 57% win probability, which makes snapping this up at -108 a savvy move.
In Maxey’s last 12 games, he has 38 PRA or more on four occasions. In this timeframe, he is averaging 37.7 minutes and 35.2 PRA. The Pistons are playing with a top-5 pace and a bottom-3 defensive efficiency rating over the last 10 games. This wager is likely to go down to the wire, but a lopsided game — particularly with the 76ers being 12.5-point road favorites or a bad night from the field — foul trouble or even a twisted ankle are some of the many potential things working against Maxey tonight.
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Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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