NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays: Jonas Valanciunas Gets the Weakest Frontcourt in NBA (March 23)

Once again, tonight’s slate is packed with injury question marks, so you must do your homework and stay on top of the news. Be sure to check out the Stokastic Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows to gain insight into how breaking news can impact the slate. Additionally, Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections and Boom/Bust Tool are valuable tools that can aid you in making NBA DFS picks and building strong lineups that have the potential to outperform your competition.

NBA DFS Projections & Optimizer Picks Today | March 23

High-End Tier

Kawhi Leonard ($9,900) has the highest projection on the slate, as the Clippers will be without Paul George against a Thunder team that plays at the second-fastest pace in the league. Leonard is projected for 22% ownership, a 30% chance of booming and 22% chance of being optimal, per the Stokastic Boom/Bust Tool.

Brandon Ingram ($9,000) gets a great matchup with a Hornets team ranked 20th in defensive rating and sixth in pace. Ingram is projected for 12% ownership, a 17% chance of booming and 13% chance of being optimal.


On a slate without great value, Cleveland’s Jarrett Allen ($6,300) currently has the best value score on the slate against his former team, the Nets. Allen is projected for 26% ownership, a 21% chance of booming and 22% chance of being optimal.

Jonas Valanciunas ($7,100) should absolutely eat against this Hornets frontcourt if he hits his minutes ceiling, but his minutes are not guaranteed, particularly on the second night of a back-to-back. Valanciunas is projected for 23% ownership, a 22% chance of booming and 19% chance of being optimal.

Jalen Brunson ($7,800) is currently questionable. But if he plays, he will make great point-per-dollar and leverage option against the Magic. Brunson is projected for 15% ownership, a 20% chance of booming and 22% chance of being optimal.

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Value Tier

Larry Nance Jr. ($3,600) makes for an interesting value option on a slate with no great point-per-dollar value options. Nance has not played more than 15 minutes in any of the past three games for the Pelicans. But the matchup is great, and on the second night of a back-to-back, Nance could see some extra run as the Pelicans try to give their starters a bit more rest. Nance is projected for 10% ownership, a 2% chance of booming and 13% chance of being optimal.

Kai Jones ($3,500) saw 27 minutes of playing time when Nick Richards got in foul trouble against the 76ers and Joel Embiid, showing his minutes upside. While Valanciunas is not Embiid, he is a strong offensive center in his own right and might increase the odds of Richards getting into foul trouble. Jones is projected for 4% ownership, a 0.3% chance of booming and 6% chance of being optimal.

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Neil Orfield
Neil Orfield has been playing DFS regularly since 2013, but his success really started taking off in 2019 when he had a six figure payday with a hand built NFL lineup. The next day, he signed up for a Stokastic+ subscription with FantasyCruncher. Since then he has won an NFL milly and added six figure wins in XFL, MLB, and NBA. He has recently excelled at NFL Showdown, with many five- and six-figure wins since 2021.

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