There are six games tonight, so we may need to play a little bit more contrarian than usual in order to give ourselves a path to first place. Despite there only being six games, there are plenty of good pitching options to choose from. As a result, only three teams have an implied run total north of five runs. Let’s dive into Stokastic’s MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS ownership projections, plus the Top Stacks and Top Pitchers Tools, and analyze the best MLB DFS value plays tonight.
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MLB DFS Advice: | June 26
Game of the Day: Minnesota Twins at Atlanta Braves
This game features the top pitcher on the slate in Spencer Strider. He is expensive at $12,600 on DraftKings, but he has earned that price tag. Strider enters tonight’s game with a 39% strikeout percentage and 2.89 xFIP. The strikeout percentage is about 10 points higher than the next-best strikeout pitcher on the slate, and his xFIP is nearly a full run lower than the next best. Minnesota’s active roster has about a 28% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season. Strider has a 40.7% chance of being a top-2 scoring pitcher in the Top Pitchers Tool and is projected for about 46% ownership.
Strider’s biggest weakness this year has been right-handed power, as he has allowed a .209 xISO to righties. The Twins are using a relatively weak lineup tonight, however, as Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton are both on the bench. There is still some power in the middle of the order, but the lineup sets up very nicely for Strider. Stokastic’s MLB Simulation Tool was showing the Twins as a strong stack earlier in the day given their low ownership and leverage against a popular Strider, but it is likely that they will not grade out as well now that they have a watered-down lineup.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Batters
Elly De La Cruz (CIN): $5,800 on DraftKings
Julio Rodriguez (SEA): $5,200 on DraftKings
Luis Robert (CWS): $4,900 on DraftKings
For more top hitters, check out our Top Batters Tool!
Elly De La Cruz: De La Cruz has been phenomenal since making his debut for Cincinnati, and he offers a huge ceiling tonight against Cole Irvin. De La Cruz has plenty of home run power in addition to being a stolen base threat. Irvin has spent most of the season at Triple-A, but during his time with the Orioles, he has allowed a .331 xISO and .456 xwOBA to right-handed hitters.
Julio Rodriguez: Rodriguez is back home in Seattle, which means one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball. He has a favorable matchup against Trevor Williams, however, and the Mariners have the third-highest implied run total on the slate. Williams has allowed a .220 xISO to right-handed hitters this season, and Rodriguez has a .214 ISO against right-handed pitchers since the start of last year.
Luis Robert: The White Sox have been below average offensively this year, but Robert is in the midst of a very strong year. He has a difficult matchup tonight against Reid Detmers, who has held righties to a .121 xISO and .310 xwOBA this season while striking them out at a 29.9% clip. Still, Robert is relatively inexpensive at $4,900 compared to other top outfielders, and he has a .243 ISO in 152 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers since the start of last year.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Pitchers
Spencer Strider (ATL): $12,600 on DraftKings
Luis Castillo (SEA): $11,000 on DraftKings
Reid Detmers (LAA): $7,300 on DraftKings
For more top pitchers, check out our Top Pitchers Tool!
Spencer Strider: Strider is the best pitcher on the slate, as mentioned in the Game of the Day section. He has the highest strikeout percentage on the slate by about a 10-percentage-point margin, and he is facing a watered-down Minnesota lineup that is without Buxton and Lewis.
Luis Castillo: Castillo is facing a below-average Washington team in pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. He is the best non-Strider pitcher on the slate, as he enters the game with a 28.6% strikeout percentage and 3.69 xFIP. The Nationals active roster only has an 18.4% strikeout percentage, but it also has a 91 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this year.
Reid Detmers: Detmers’ only real issue this season has been an inability to work deep into games, but at $7,300, that is not overly concerning. He has struck out 28.2% of hitters and has a 3.79 xFIP. Detmers has very similar numbers overall to Castillo but is available at a nearly $4,000 discount. The White Sox will most likely have a lineup full of right-handed hitters, but Detmers has a 29.9% strikeout percentage against righties this year.
