It is the second night of NHL action for the 2023-24 regular season, and there is a more normal six-game NHL DFS slate to make picks. Even with just six games, there is a plethora of elite offensive talent in Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon and Auston Matthews, plus rookie Connor Bedard coming off a one-assist, five-shot performance on Tuesday night. Those high-end options will be discussed, but most of this article will focus on cheaper alternatives to mix in with those high-priced pieces and stacks.
As always, Stokastic members are encouraged to check in on Stokastic’s Discord during warmups for up-to-date lineup information.
NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Center Picks Today
Nathan MacKinnon (COL at LA): DraftKings – $9,200 | FanDuel – $10,200
Despite missing 11 games in the 2022-23 season, MacKinnon set career marks in goals (42), assists (69) and shots (366). He hit the shot bonus on DraftKings 41 times, eight more than Matthews in three fewer games. MacKinnon will be skating next to usual linemate Mikko Rantanen, and the team generates 39.1 shots per 60 minutes at five-on-five with those two on the ice, considerably more than Toronto’s (35.7) and Edmonton’s (37.2) respective top lines.
Visiting the Los Angeles Kings can be a tough matchup depending on which defensemen the home team uses in a shutdown role. Regardless, MacKinnon had one goal and 10 shots in two games against Los Angeles a year ago, and the Kings were the 10th-most penalized team in the league. It gives the superstar a solid matchup, even if he’s on the road.
Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections have MacKinnon first among all centers on DraftKings, but he lags behind McDavid and Matthews on FanDuel. The reason is MacKinnon’s shot volume matters more on the former site, whereas McDavid’s point production is more valuable on the latter. Regardless, MacKinnon is in a decent spot on a medium slate, and that always warrants consideration.
Pavel Zacha (BOS vs. CHI): DraftKings – $4,500 | FanDuel – $5,900
The Boston Bruins lost their top two centers in the offseason, and that has left Zacha as the de facto top pivot. It means he’ll get elite goal scorer David Pastrnak on his wing, and last season that duo had elite five-on-five goal rates whether they had David Krejci as their center (4.7 goals per 60 minutes) or not (4.3 goals per 60). They will start with James van Riemsdyk on the left wing, so whether they can carry that success over is uncertain, but it is a good start for their fantasy value.
Working in Zacha’s favor tonight is the fact that the Bruins are getting a Chicago Blackhawks team playing its second game in as many nights. Teams in such positions typically perform worse than normal, and Chicago was no exception last season, winning just twice out of 14 back-to-back games. Additions like Bedard and Taylor Hall make this a different Chicago team than last year’s, but it doesn’t bode well for the road team.
Zacha has the third-highest projection for any center priced under $5,000 on DraftKings and that makes him a target on that site, particularly as part of a stack for tournaments.
NHL DFS Winger Picks Today
Mitch Marner (TOR vs. MTL): DraftKings – $6,400 | FanDuel – $7,800
Expectations are such that Toronto winger Marner’s 82-game paces for last season were 31 goals, 102 points and 201 shots, and it felt like a disappointing campaign. Toronto’s five-on-five goal rate with him and Matthews on the ice fell (3.7 goals per 60) when compared to the year before (4.9 goals per 60), but even that depressed goal rate was considerably higher than the team’s second line (2.6 goals per 60).
One big change for Marner’s line is the addition of Tyler Bertuzzi. The offseason acquisition had elite playmaking stats over the last two years, as AllThreeZones has tracked him among the elite forwards in assists on teammate scoring chances at five-on-five. In fact, the only winger with a higher chance assist rate is Marner himself. It gives Toronto’s top line another high-end playmaker to create good chances for everyone on the ice, and that will benefit Marner’s fantasy value.
The concern for DFS players tonight is Marner’s ownership. Stokastic’s early NHL DFS ownership projections have him third among DraftKings wingers at 21.4%, and that is high for a player who doesn’t shoot a lot. If he meshes well with Bertuzzi, though, his price will only rise from here.
Cole Caufield (MTL at TOR): DraftKings – $4,200 | FanDuel – $4,900
Visiting Toronto tonight is a Montreal Canadiens team that finished 28th in the standings. Caufield was injured midway through the season and was limited to just 46 games. However, he has played 83 games under coach Martin St. Louis, and those 83 games have seen Caufield post 48 goals, 71 points and 3.3 shots per game. Caufield being priced where he is on both sites represents a sizable discount if he can maintain anywhere close to that production level for another full season.
One key to Caufield’s success is his chemistry with center Nick Suzuki. Though they don’t generate a lot of shots, Caufield lands roughly 32% of the shots taken when the duo is on the ice. One player out of five landing nearly one-third of the team’s shots when he’s on the ice speaks to how important he is to the offense and which player it looks to for goals. Toronto has undergone significant changes on their blueline compared to a year ago, and whether it can maintain its top-5 defense remains to be seen.
Among wingers priced less than $5,000 on either site, Caufield is first on DraftKings and second on FanDuel (behind Kevin Fiala) by points projection. He will carry high ownership, but he’ll be hard to get away from, particularly in cash games.
Matthew Coronato (CGY vs. WPG): DraftKings – $3,000 | FanDuel – $3,000
Calgary is up against the cap, and that means having to use young players in prime roles they may not otherwise reach. That is the case for Coronato, the 13th overall pick from 2021. He is entering his first full year in the NHL and has been given top billing already: Second-line duties next to Nazem Kadri as well as manning the top power play unit. That kind of role for a player at his cost is about as much as DFS players can hope for.
The Flames underachieved a year ago, but their top power play unit was still solid, posting 9.0 goals per 60 minutes. That was a mark slightly higher than Ottawa’s top power play unit and considerably higher than Vancouver’s (7.6 per 60 minutes), two other Canadian teams on tonight’s slate. That is good news for Coronato, even if he faces goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, one of the best in the league.
As a rookie, Coronato doesn’t carry a strong projection today, and part of that is also facing Hellebuyck. Given his current opportunity, though, Coronato is a viable salary-saving option in any format.
NHL DFS Defense Picks Today
Evan Bouchard (EDM at VAN): DraftKings – $6,100 | FanDuel – $5,500
This is a case where price differences matter for NHL DFS players. Over on DraftKings, Bouchard is the fifth-most expensive defenseman on the slate; he is the 11th-most expensive at the position on FanDuel. Even removing Bouchard’s peripheral changes for the two sites, he posted 36 points in 33 games (including playoffs) once he took over top power play duties in Edmonton towards the end of last season. This isn’t a player that relies on shots and blocks for fantasy value.
Going into Vancouver is not a difficult matchup. The Canucks penalty kill improved greatly after coach Bruce Boudreau was let go in January, but even that improvement saw them 20th by goals against and 23rd by shots against per minute when short-handed. Another modest improvement would have the team in the middle of the league, and that’s not good enough against an historic Edmonton power play. Bouchard is expensive, but his role on the team gives him tremendous upside for tournaments.
Tony DeAngelo (CAR vs. OTT): DraftKings – $4,200 | FanDuel – $4,600
In his lone season with Carolina, DeAngelo managed 10 goals, 51 points and 2.4 shots per game across 64 contests while skating under 20 minutes a game. He returns to the Hurricanes to help run their top power play unit once again, and though he may see less ice time per outing than the 19:47 he earned in his first go-around, even just 18 to 19 minutes is enough when considering his cost.
A year ago, the Ottawa Senators were the second-most penalized team in the league, trailing only the Arizona Coyotes. Over the last two years, Carolina scored 20% more often on the power play when DeAngelo was around than when he wasn’t.
With his price being where it is, DeAngelo is carrying double-digit NHL DFS ownership projections on DraftKings tonight. It is a concern for those playing in tournaments, but with Ottawa’s penchant for penalty taking, his price and ownership are still palatable.
NHL DFS Goalie Picks Today
Joonas Korpisalo (OTT at CAR): DraftKings – $7,200 | FanDuel – $7,400
Going into Carolina is one of those double-edged swords for goaltenders: The home team is typically among the league leaders in shots per minute, ranking no lower than ninth in any of the last three seasons. That can give opposing goaltenders lots of shot volume and the potential for a great fantasy performance. If those shots start going in, though, it can lead to being pulled or an otherwise poor fantasy effort. The fact that Ottawa takes so many penalties doesn’t help either.
That volatility is factored into Korpisalo’s DFS cost, however, as he’s nowhere near the top of the list on either DraftKings or FanDuel. Carolina will be without star winger Andrei Svechnikov, and that should help keep Carolina’s offense in check. Korpisalo should be given heavy consideration in tournament formats.
Being on the road and playing for a team that takes a lot of penalties has Korpisalo’s projection muted, but he still leads all goalies priced under $7,500 on DraftKings and is second for the same price range on FanDuel. The shot-volume upside is there if Ottawa can stay out of the penalty box.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
PIT1: Crosby-Guentzel-Rust
MTL1: Cole Caufield-Nick Suzuki-Josh Anderson
The main reason for their inclusion here is the pricing on DraftKings. Even with Montreal expected to be a basement team, Caufield is a 40-goal threat when healthy, and winger Josh Anderson has paced for 24 goals per 82 games over his last two seasons. They are being priced on DraftKings as if they’re a third line, not a low-end top line, and ignoring them is ignoring tremendous value; they are quite literally cheaper than Calgary’s third line tonight. Just beware of high ownership on that site because of the pricing, as Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool has them as the third-most overleveraged line on DraftKings.
EDM2: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins-Leon Draisaitl-Zach Hyman
DFS players will have a decision to make tonight. Edmonton’s entire second line is correlated on the top power play unit, and that power play unit was historic in 2022-23: The Oilers power play scored 13.25 goals per 60 minutes, a mark that is 15% higher than any other team in any other season since 2007. The crux, of course, is that McDavid is on the top line and away from this trio at even strength. It forces a decision of stacking across even strength lines to include McDavid – which is perfectly acceptable – or leaving McDavid off an Edmonton stack. That will be up to the individual player.
This Edmonton trio has been successful at even strength over the last couple of seasons, scoring 3.3 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, a mark that is roughly 30% higher than the league average. They are carrying the fourth-best leverage mark in Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool and are second by top-2 stack probability.
Stokastic’s NHL Premium subscription is available in either weekly or monthly packages and includes NHL DFS projections, top stacks, expert Discord and more! Join today!
*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick and AllThreeZones
