There are five games in the NHL tonight and with Pittsburgh and Winnipeg having played last night, as well as key injury news from Buffalo and Anaheim, late-arriving lineup information is likely. Before we get to our NHL DFS picks today, Stokastic members should check the Discord before lock to get updated roster and injury news.
NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Picks Today: Center
Brock Nelson (NYI vs. ANH): DraftKings – $6,200 | FanDuel – $7,200
With 14 shots and six points in his last five games, Nelson has started to heat up again after a three-game pointless streak. He has 12 goals on the campaign, pacing for his third straight season with at least 36 goals. Importantly for tonight, Nelson remains a focal point of New York’s top power play unit by leading the team in both shot attempts (35) and shots on goal (20) with the man advantage. His shots per minute when on the power play rates in the 91st percentile of regular PP forwards in the league so far this season.
That power play prowess is important for tonight because Anaheim still leads the league in power plays given per game at 4.4 with no other team at 3.9 or higher. They are giving up a half-power play more per game than the next-closest team and that has led to 23 power play goals against in 27 contests. It gives Nelson and his top power play line mates a fortuitous matchup.
There is a lot of ownership expected on this Islanders second line as the Top Stacks tool has them among the most negatively leveraged lines on the slate, meaning higher ownership than top-2 stack percentage. Nelson, however, is the goal scorer on that line (he has one fewer goal than his wingers combined) and is an engine of the power play. He is a one-off option for the slate.
Nico Hischier (NJ vs. BOS): DraftKings – $4,600 | FanDuel – $6,000
It has been eight games since Hischier returned from injury and he has four goals and six assists in that span. A big reason for that has been the success of his second line with Jesper Bratt and Ondrej Palat; that trio is helping New Jersey create 86 shot attempts, 4.4 expected goals, and 5.2 actual goals per 60 minutes in nearly 120 minutes together at 5-on-5. Just 2 of 10 points for Hischier in that eight-game stretch came on the power play as that 5-on-5 success has been paramount to his production.
Boston is in town tonight and while that is usually a difficult matchup, the Bruins are missing star defenseman Charlie McAvoy for this tilt. Over the last six weeks, Boston is 16th by expected goals against and 10th by actual goals against per minute at 5-on-5. They haven’t been bad defensively, but they haven’t been good, either, and now are without their top defensive defenseman.
Among all centers carrying a price tag of at least $4,000 on DK and $6,000 on FD, Hischier ranks first and third, respectively, by point-per-dollar value tonight. His raw projection isn’t far behind the aforementioned Nelson, in fact. He can be used as a salary-saver, but given the production of his line, a stack for tournaments is preferred.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger
Cole Caufield (MON vs. PIT): DraftKings – $6,600 | FanDuel – $6,600
Montreal’s top sniper has been snakebit of late with just two goals in his last 15 games, a span that goes back a little over a month. The key for Caufield is that he’s stayed involved in the offense by landing 3.5 shots per game in that span; he’s been a victim of 3.8% shooting and that will keep any player’s goal totals suppressed. It isn’t as if he’s taking bad shots, either, as his individual expected goals per minute at 5-on-5 in that 15-game stretch is in the 80th percentile of the league. Not every shot is ideal, but he’s run into some genuine bad luck, and positive regression will hit eventually.
Pittsburgh is in town, and they played last night, so this makes it a road back-to-back for the Penguins. Their team defense has been on a slide, ranking 23rd by expected goals against and 20th by shots against per minute at 5-on-5 over the last four weeks. A league-leading save percentage has, erm, saved them on more than one occasion, and teams can’t rely on goaltending to save them every night.
Though he has the eighth-highest price tag among all wingers on DK tonight, Stokastic has him with the third-highest fantasy point projection. It isn’t as strong on FD, but his (relatively) cheaper price makes him a good point-per-dollar value target regardless of the site where he’s being rostered.
Alex Killorn (ANH at NYI): DraftKings – $4,000 | FanDuel – $4,700
Starting the season injured, it took Killorn some time to get acclimated to a new locale and that was evident with his two points and 10 shots over his first seven games, skating 17:16 per night. His fortune has turned over his last 10 games with three goals and three assists, totaling 35 shots on target while skating 18:37 per contest. The former Tampa Bay winger has surpassed 19 minutes in ice time for four straight games, and crossed 20 minutes in three of those four.
Killorn skates on what is the team’s top power play unit and that’s good news for him here. The New York Islanders have had a poor penalty kill all season as they’re tied for the seventh-most power play goals against per game despite being 26th by power play opportunities given up per game. That top Ducks PP unit has been tremendous, creating over 75 shots and 13 goals per 60 minutes together. Facing the Islanders means facing very tough goaltending but it’s a good special team matchup for our winger.
Of the wingers with a price tag under $5,000 on either site, Killorn comes in third by fantasy point projections tonight. His line shouldn’t carry heavy ownership, whether on DK or FD, so he can be used as a mid-priced one-off option or as part of a line stack.
Valtteri Puustinen (PIT at MON): DraftKings – $2,600 | FanDuel – $3,000
Stop the presses but the Pittsburgh Penguins scored a power play goal last night! They scored two of them, in fact. It had been a month since the team tallied with the man advantage, and, coincidentally, it came in Puustinen’s first game skating on the top PP unit. He has now posted an assist in both games he’s played since getting called up by Pittsburgh and was skating on the second line at even strength last night, on top of that top PP slotting.
It is hard to assign credit to him for the outburst, but the team gets a good power play matchup tonight in Montreal – the Canadiens are giving up the fifth-most power plays per game, and second-most power play goals per game. Puustinen is not earning heavy minutes yet, but he’s not being priced as if he’s getting heavy minutes, and his specific roles are nearly as good as it gets for production potential on this roster.
A lack of NHL sample is keeping Puustinen’s point projections low, but his role on the team, at his price, means he can be used as a punt option on the wing. He can also be used as part of a Penguins power play stack as he helps lower the overall cost of that stack, though the team’s overall lack of PP production this season makes that precarious.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defense
Cale Makar (COL vs. BUF): DraftKings – $8,000 | FanDuel – $8,900
Over his last six games, Makar has three games where he’s been held pointless, and three games where he’s posted a goal and an assist. It highlights his production differences this year as he has eight games where he’s been held pointless and 13 games where he’s had a multi-point effort. That type of boom/bust production is what makes him ideal for tournaments. Tonight, he faces a Buffalo squad that is 20th by expected goals against and 22nd by actual goals against per minute at 5-on-5 over the last month. They are starting to get healthier but have a way to go before even being considered an average defensive team.
Makar is the most expensive blue liner on the board, on either site, and by a good margin. That is keeping his ownership projections low as he’s coming in under 10% for both DK and FD, per the Stokastic ownership outlook. He shouldn’t be a cash game target but in tournaments, that low ownership with his boom/bust potential makes him ideal for that format.
Kevin Shattenkirk (BOS at NJ): DraftKings – $3,100 | FanDuel – $3,600
The injury to McAvoy has forced some shuffling on Boston’s blue line and that means top power play minutes for Shattenkirk. He has already spent time up there when McAvoy was suspended earlier this season, and the top PP unit did well with our defenseman there by creating 28 shots and four goals in 16:16 of ice time together. It is not a sufficient sample to draw conclusions, but it’s definitely a step in the right direction for DFS value. New Jersey’s penalty kill has struggled for most of the season, being tied for the seventh-most PP goals against per game on the year. Their last month of PK work has led to being 24th by goals against per minute so things haven’t improved much with Hischier back in the lineup.
Stokastic projections have Shattenkirk carrying a point-per-$1,000 value north of 2.0 for both DK and FD tonight. His cheap price and top PP slotting may drive ownership his way, but for DFS players looking to get a top PP skater in their lineup at a cheap price, he is one of the options to consider.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
Connor Hellebuyck (WPG at LA): DraftKings – $7,300 | FanDuel – $8,000
Los Angeles is one of the top teams in the league and when they lose games, it’s not often the games are out of hand. In fact, the team has not given up more than four goals against in a loss since the second game of the season, which was nearly two months ago. All that is to say that when they lose, the games tend to be low-scoring affairs. Winnipeg is in town without top scorer Kyle Connor in the lineup and they also played last night. Los Angeles is a top-5 team by shots per minute over the last four weeks, so if Winnipeg does win tonight, it’s likely because of Hellebuyck’s performance in net, and potentially while facing a lot of volume.
Ownership projections for both DK and FD have Hellebuyck in the bottom-3 goaltenders for tonight’s slate. It is a difficult matchup, no doubt, but he’s had very good DFS games against top teams like Colorado, Tampa Bay, and Edmonton (twice) already this season. He is one of the top goalies in the world and should be considered as a low-owned option for tournaments.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
LA2: Kevin Fiala – Phillip Danault – Trevor Moore
This Kings trio has turned into the team’s top scoring line of late, averaging 39.5 shots, 3.6 expected goals, and 4.6 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 over their last 10 games. They scored 10 goals at 5-on-5 in that span, as many goals as the rest of the team’s forwards combined. Tonight, they face a Winnipeg team that is playing its second game in as many nights, having lost last night in San Jose. It gives the Kings an advantage in the matchup, and it should allow this high-end offensive trio to dominate the play.
The Top Stacks tool here at Stokastic has this Los Angeles line with positive leverage on both DK and FD tonight, so they have a higher top-2 stack probability than expected ownership tonight. With how good they’ve been, they should be in consideration as a tournament stack tonight.
BUF2: Jeff Skinner – Casey Mittelstadt – JJ Peterka
A fair warning about Buffalo lines: they are likely to change. This was one trio they finished their last game with, but winger Alex Tuch is expected to return to the lineup tonight. Until we see their team’s morning skate – in the middle of the afternoon Eastern time – we won’t know what their exact lines are.
With that said, this particular Buffalo line has been very successful this season. In their 59 minutes together at 5-on-5, they’ve outshot the opposition 38-28, controlled nearly two-thirds of the expected goals, and outscored their opponents 8-1. They are riding a hot shooting percentage, but are also creating so many shots that even half their shooting percentage would still lead to a high-end goals-per-minute total. They’ve been excellent at creating offense, regardless of what the shooting percentages are.
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*Additional best NHL DFS picks today stats from Natural Stat Trick
