There is a colossal 14-game slate in the NHL tonight as the league loads up before the American Thanksgiving holiday. There are superstars all over the place so let’s look at some of the top options and then dig for a bit of cheap value. Nevertheless, onto our best NHL DFS picks today.
Especially for a slate this large, Stokastic members are encouraged to check the Discord at pregame skate for lineup and injury information.
NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Picks Today: Center
Sebastian Aho (CAR vs. EDM): DraftKings – $6,800 | FanDuel – $6,800
One issue that often occurs with Carolina forwards is balancing ice time, but Aho is earning 20:17 per game this season, which is a career high. He has skated at least 20 minutes in five out of seven games in November, managing at least one point in six of them, and having four goals and five assists in that span. Getting Teuvo Teravainen back on his line last game should help Aho, as those two have helped the team create 3.4 expected goals and 3.7 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 this season, and those are very good offensive numbers.
Hosting Edmonton is a very good power play matchup for our center. The Oilers are giving up nearly 3.9 power plays per game, tied for fourth-most in the league. They have given up 18 power play goals against in 17 contests, while Carolina’s top power play unit has scored four times in fewer than 24 minutes together. With Edmonton’s awful goaltending, both on the penalty kill and at even strength, this is a very good matchup for Aho.
This center’s price is very reasonable on FanDuel where Stokastic projections have him as a top-20 pivot but he’s outside that range by cost. It gives him good FD value so he can be used there as part of a Carolina stack. The value is much less on DraftKings, but it’ll also keep his tournament ownership very low as his projection is under 2%.
Christian Dvorak (MTL at ANA): DraftKings – $2,800 | FanDuel – $3,600
Production has been a bit meagre for Dvorak since returning from injury with one goal and two assists in eight games. The good news for him tonight is he’s getting Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky as line mates tonight. That winger duo has created 2.9 expected goals/60 at 5-on-5 this season, with the team’s average a little over 2.5. It gives Dvorak a pair of talented offensive wingers to skate with and that should help his production woes.
Going into Anaheim is a good power play matchup for Montreal. Though Dvorak is skating on the second unit, that unit has been getting about 35% of the team’s PP ice time, and the Ducks are the most penalized team in the league, giving up nearly 4.6 power plays per game to the opponent. With the home team’s expected goals against rate falling into the bottom-10 of the league at 5-on-5 over the last month, Dvorak is in a good spot at all offensive strengths tonight.
Among the centers on DK tonight priced under $3,000, Dvorak is fifth by point projection and that makes him a tremendous value with his new line mates. He has similarly excellent value for his price over on FD so he can be used as a salary-saving center on either site tonight.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger
Mikko Rantanen (COL vs. VAN): DraftKings – $8,700 | FanDuel – $9,700
In Monday’s article, we discussed how Colorado’s top stars were having to skate more due to the injury to Artturi Lehkonen. That applies to Rantanen, who has skated an average of 22:33 per game over his last five outings – it was 21:11 over his first 12 games – and he’s surpassed 24 minutes in three of those contests. He had five points and 14 shots in those appearances, and there were some very good defensive home teams in that mix including Dallas, Nashville, and Seattle. His line has been excellent, too, creating 4.3 expected goals and 6.9 actual goals/60 at 5-on-5 since being assembled.
Despite Vancouver’s success in many areas, the penalty kill is a genuine weakness. While short-handed, the Canucks allow the third-most shots per minute and rank 23rd by goals against per minute. Colorado, meanwhile, is tied for the fourth-most power plays drawn per game this season. It should give Rantanen a lot of time with the man advantage, on top of the additional ice time he’s been earning anyway.
There is a hefty cost on Rantanen on either site tonight and because he’s not a volume shooter like teammate Nathan MacKinnon, he is projecting worse than some other top options. His points per minute rate is higher right now than either of his two prior seasons, though, so there is a lot of scoring upside in this matchup. He can be used as a one-off tournament option but is best used as part of a Colorado stack.
Jared McCann (SEA vs. SJ): DraftKings – $5,000 | FanDuel – $5,600
Though he’s not on the 40-goal pace he managed last season, McCann is still on pace for over 32 goals this year, and that’s very good offensive production. His top line has been generating nearly 40 shots per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, which is a very high number. Since a shot-less game against Colorado, McCann has posted two goals and 12 shots in four appearances. On the campaign, he is the only Kraken skater averaging at least one shot for every six minutes of ice time. As with all Seattle forwards, there aren’t high levels of ice time to be found here, but he’s also not being priced in a range where we’d expect 19-20 minutes from the player tonight.
The home game against San Jose is the clear appeal for McCann. Even as the team has somewhat improved defensively, they are in the bottom-5 of the league by expected goals at 5-on-5 since getting blown up for 10 goals in back-to-back games over two weeks ago. Their penalty killing stats are just as bad, too. Only great goaltending is keeping the Sharks in any of their games, and they can’t be elite every night.
Like a lot of other Kraken skaters in this matchup, McCann projects well tonight, particularly on FanDuel where his point-per-$1,000 mark is over 2.1. The issue for tonight will be (justifiably) high ownership on Seattle, but McCann is one of their top goal scorers so he can be used as a mid-priced one-off for this slate.
Michael Eyssimont (TB vs. WPG): DraftKings – $3,000 | FanDuel – $3,900
Despite all the firepower that Tampa Bay has, it is Eyssimont that leads the team in goals scored per minute at 5-on-5. He is doing that because he’s second on the team in shots per minute, trailing only Nikita Kucherov. A more consistent role has appeared, too, as the winger has skated at least 12 minutes in five straight games, averaging a shade over 13 minutes per night. Eyssimont had just one game over 12 minutes in his first 13 appearances, averaging 10:29 in that span. More ice time is a good thing for a player that has such high per-minute shot rates.
Tampa Bay’s third line, this flank included, has been tremendous since they were assembled this season: 88 shot attempts, 4.3 expected goals, and 3.7 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. The sample isn’t large – about 50 minutes – but they have done well in two-player samples going back to last year so this is likely an excellent three-man unit.
The extra minutes and high shot volume are giving Eyssimont a high projection tonight and pushing his point-per-$1,000 over 2.5 on DK and over 2.4 on FD. He is perfectly fine to use as a salary-saving one-off option.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defense
Roman Josi (NSH vs. CGY): DraftKings – $7,300 | FanDuel – $7,500
Josi has not been as productive this year as we’d expect, points-wise, and it may just still be small-sample luck. He has managed a point on just 42.3% of Nashville goals scored with him on the ice; he was over 54% for five straight seasons and averaged nearly 60% over his last three campaigns. He is being short-changed by 3-4 points, and that bodes well moving forward. Aside from the points, Nashville’s captain is averaging 3.7 shots and 1.7 blocks per game. There is a good peripheral floor, especially when facing a Calgary team that is top-10 in the league by pace this season, as defined by shot attempts for/against per minute.
For both sites listed, Stokastic has Josi as the top expected fantasy producer, and it’s not particularly close: 19% and 15% higher than the next-highest defender on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively. On a slate this large, ownership isn’t a significant concern, either. He is fine to used in both cash game and tournaments formats.
Kevin Korchinski (CHI at CBJ): DraftKings – $2,900 | FanDuel – $3,900
One of the big notes in the DFS realm today is that Chicago has moved rookie defender Korchinski to the top power play unit. It hasn’t been a good top power play unit thus far, but Korchinski has shown good puck-moving skills so maybe he can make a difference here. Columbus doesn’t take many penalties – 31st by opportunities given this season – but at Korchinski’s price, he doesn’t need a lot of power play time to reach value, either. That he’s averaging over 19 minutes a game in his last four appearances highlights that this is a rearguard that could cruise past 20 minutes, with top PP time, for a cheap price.
Even in a good matchup, Korchinski’s ownership is expected to be in the low single digits tonight, per Stokastic ownership. That makes him the ideal target for a cheap one-off defenseman on either site tonight.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
Linus Ullmark (BOS at FLA): DraftKings – $7,900 | FanDuel – $8,300
Though not as elite as last year, Ullmark has been one of the top goalies in the league once again, posting a .928 save percentage in eight starts. He has allowed two-or-fewer goals in six of those eight games, managing double-digit DK fantasy points in seven of them, and at least 24 FD fantasy points in six outings. He is even seeing reasonable volume, having faced at least 30 shots in six of the eight games as well, so it’s not as if he’s entirely reliant on a shutout, or allowing just one goal. There is a chance for a lot of rubber when facing a Florida team that is fourth in the league in shots per minute.
Stokastic’s GoalieStats section has Ullmark projected for over 30 saves, one of just two goalies to reach that level. The combination of a reasonable price, good save totals, and low goals against makes Ullmark one of the top values on DraftKings. That value is lower on FanDuel, but he’s still carrying a top-6 projection among all netminders, so he’s fine to use on that site as well.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
STL1: Pavel Buchnevich – Robert Thomas – Jordan Kyrou
St. Louis’s last game saw them finally unite this trio for an entire game and that’s good news for DFS players. With this trio on the ice over the last two seasons, the team is scoring 3.4 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, and that shows the scoring upside they have. They also face an Arizona team that remains without defenseman Juuso Välimäki. With him on the ice, the Coyotes were giving up just 2.2 expected goals against/60 at 5-on-5. Without him on the ice, that explodes to 3.1 expected goals against/60. Add the poor defense to a middling penalty kill, and this is a great matchup for the new St. Louis top line.
A road matchup and a large slate is keeping ownership projections on this trio muted, coming in at 2.7% on DraftKings and 3.9% on FanDuel, per the Top Stacks tool. That tool gives them a higher top-2 stack probability than those marks, so there is positive leverage here. They are a target for a mid-priced stack tonight regardless of which site DFS players use.
WSH1: Alex Ovechkin – Dylan Strome – Tom Wilson
This particular trio has been one of the few bright offensive spots for the Capitals, creating 2.9 expected goals and 3.5 actual goals/60 at 5-on-5. They catch an average Buffalo team that has seen their goaltenders struggle as they’ve posted an aggregate save percentage of .894 where the league average is around .903. Strome also skated with Ovechkin on the top PP unit with Wilson alongside the goal-scoring winger on the second unit, so though they don’t all skate the same power play quintet, they do have a correlation link with Ovechkin.
This is another mid-priced stack that isn’t carrying a lot of ownership on DraftKings, projecting a shade under 9%. They do have negative leverage on both DK and FD, but at their price, they still need to be considered because they can help open lineups to another good mid-priced stack.
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*Additional best NHL DFS picks today stats from Natural Stat Trick
