It is a massive 13-game slate in the NHL tonight and with a few teams playing their second game in as many nights, late-arriving information will be a problem. As always, Stokastic members are encouraged to check the Discord for updates before lock. Let’s get to our NHL DFS pick today.
NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Picks Today: Center
Dylan Larkin (DET vs. SJ): DraftKings – $8,000 | FanDuel – $8,400
The return of Patrick Kane brings excitement to this matchup, but Larkin remains the offensive engine of this team. Detroit generates more goals and expected goals with him on the ice than any other player, and the tracking site AllThreeZones has him assisting on more teammates’ scoring chances per minute at 5-on-5 than any other Red Wings skater. Add that tremendous playmaking to his 91st percentile shots/minute rate and he’s a true dual-threat offensive force.
San Jose is in town and as mentioned in a couple prior columns, the team has improved defensively; in 15 outings since their back-to-back 10-goals-against games, they are 25th by expected goals against at 5-on-5. That still isn’t very good, and it’s something Larkin can take advantage of. Even without Alex DeBrincat on his line the team is generating roughly the same amount of expected goals-for per minute, so the offensive upside remains high regardless of wingers.
By pricing on both sites, there is a trio of centers above Larkin and all three carry higher raw point projections tonight. His point-per-dollar value is still fine on both sites regardless – and a bit better on FanDuel – so he can be used in tournaments, likely as part of a stack with the top line or top PP unit.
Colton Sissons (NSH vs. TB): DraftKings – $3,500 | FanDuel – $4,300
Sissons has seen a much bigger role since Tommy Novak was injured as our center has jumped to 17:50 per night in ice time over the last 10 games, adding over two minutes per night to his usage. That included two goals and five assists, as well as a bump to the team’s top power play unit. With Nashville drawing the fourth-most power plays per game in the league, that additional PPTOI is important, even if he’s not a focal part of the offense at that strength.
Tampa Bay played last night at home, so they had to travel, and will be on the road for a back-to-back game without starting goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy in net. The Lightning are also a team that has not had good defensive results of late, sitting 19th in the league by expected goals against per minute at 5-on-5 over the last four weeks. All this gives Sissons an easier matchup than he otherwise would have, and the improved role boosts his DFS upside.
Nashville is tied for the eighth-highest team goal total tonight, which is good for a team featuring 26 teams. Despite that, there is not much ownership projected on Sissons in particular as he’s around 1% on DK and under that on FD tonight. He makes a nice salary-saving one-off option in tournament formats.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger
Brady Tkachuk (OTT vs. TOR): DraftKings – $7,700 | FanDuel – $8,900
A big key for Tkachuk is that he can help the team create offense whether he has top center Tim Stützle next to him or not; the team’s expected goals-for and shots-for rates are virtually identical when Tkachuk has the star center and when he doesn’t. In fact, Tkachuk’s individual shot attempt rate climbs about 15% when he doesn’t have Stützle as a center, so he’s been better off in at least one way. With Claude Giroux on Tkachuk’s wing, Ottawa is generating nearly 4.0 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, and that’s a monster number.
Toronto visits Ottawa and the road team has been poor defensively for a while now. Since Halloween, they are 26th in the league by expected goals against per minute at 5-on-5, and 27th by actual goals against. Just since John Klingberg’s injury, they are 21st by expected goals against and 22nd by actual goals. A bit better, but still worse than the league average, and close to what the aforementioned San Jose Sharks are doing. This isn’t a tough matchup for Tkachuk’s offense.
Of the six wingers projected for at least 14.5 DK points tonight, Tkachuk has the second-best point-per-dollar value as he’s priced down a bit from the superstar tier. The value isn’t as good on FD where shots matter less, but he’s also projected for less than 5% ownership on both sites. There is value in using him as a one-off option tonight, though he’s perfectly fine as part of an Ottawa tournament stack.
Kevin Fiala (LA at MTL): DraftKings – $6,400 | FanDuel – $7,100
It has been nine games since Fiala was moved to a line with Phillip Danault. Even though it cost him about a minute of ice time per appearance, his shots per minute have jumped a whopping 50% in that span. That has added roughly 0.9 shots per game compared to his pre-Danault formations, leading to four goals in his nine recent contests. The team is creating 12% more expected goals and 19% more actual goals per minute at 5-on-5 when Fiala is with Danault than elsewhere in the lineup, so despite the ice time drop, the rise in shot volume and scoring efficiency has more than made up for it.
Visiting Montreal is a prime matchup for Fiala tonight. Skating on the second line, he should often miss the Kaiden Guhle matchup from the home side, and he has been easily Montreal’s best (healthy) defensive defenseman. It gives Fiala’s line better in-game matchups against a bad defensive team. Our winger is also on the team’s top power play unit, and the Canadiens are giving up the fifth-most power plays per game on the year. It is a great matchup at all strengths for Fiala.
On such a large slate, ownership usually isn’t an issue, and that goes for this matchup as Fiala is projected around 2-3% on both DK and FD. As he carries the fourth-highest point projection for any winger in his price range on either site, he’s fine by himself or part of a Kings stack.
Andre Burakovsky (SEA vs. NJ): DraftKings – $3,300 | FanDuel – $3,500
We are awaiting confirmation, but the previously injured Burakovsky was skating on the second line for the team in practice on Wednesday and Seattle sent two forwards down to the AHL. It seems they’re making room for his return.
This winger was injured last year, too, but his 49 games led to 13 goals and 39 points, so he was doing well offensively. On top of that, the team’s goal rate on the power play was 12% higher with Burakovsky on the ice than any other forward. This is a player that has been very efficient with his point production for several years now, and that’s important on a team like Seattle’s that disperses ice time somewhat equitably. He was skating on a line with sniper Jared McCann in that practice, so he’ll have at least one talented line mate to skate with.
Seattle is carrying low ownership across the board on FanDuel tonight with no player over 2.5%. Burakovsky isn’t in projections yet – we need that confirmation – but it seems likely he is also low, even at his bare-minimum price. There will be better value on FD because of that pricing but he’s acceptable as a one-off for cheap in tournaments.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defense
Seth Jones (CHI vs. ANH): DraftKings – $4,700 | FanDuel – $5,000
Jones has put up very good peripherals this season with 53 shots and 55 blocks in 24 games played. He is 1 of 6 players to have at least 50 shots and 50 blocks already this season, three of those other six are on this slate, and Jones is the cheapest among them on DK by $1,000. His big issue is having zero goals on those 53 shots, but this is a player who averaged 4.6% shooting in his first two years with Chicago. He should have 2-3 goals by now, and that speaks to positive regression to come. It is also a great matchup for the Blackhawks’ power play (Jones included) as they get a Ducks team giving up 4.4 power plays per game, a mark over 0.5 PPs/game higher than the next-most penalized team.
Among all defenders with a price tag of at least $4,000 on DK and $5,000 on FD, Jones has the best point-per-dollar value tonight in the Stokastic projections. It could drive ownership his way – he’s in the high teens on both sites per those projections – but he’s a top option for cash games given the matchup and his price.
Alex Romanov (NYI vs. CLS): DraftKings – $3,600 | FanDuel – $3,900
On the topic of peripherals, Romanov is averaging a career-high 1.75 shots per game, partly thanks to a career-high 22:28 in ice time per contest. With New York’s injuries on the blue line, he has averaged 24:18 each night over his last five games, skating at least 23:30 in four straight. For a defenseman with a career-high shot rate, and that is also averaging over two blocks per game, there are peripherals had for cheap here. That larger role has also helped his offense as he has four assists in his last six appearances.
Similar to Jones, Romanov carries exceptional point-per-dollar value tonight, ranking second on DK and first on FD among all blue liners priced under $4,000. Also like Jones, it likely pushes some ownership his way, but for DFS players looking to save some money on a defenseman, this is one of the top value options on the board.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
Dustin Wolf (CGY vs. CAR): DraftKings – $7,300 | FanDuel – $6,700
Wolf may not be a familiar name, but he is one of the top prospect netminders in the world. He was Goalie of the Year two seasons in a row as a 20- and 21-year-old in the minor leagues. He started off this season with a .920 save percentage down there, too. Injury has pushed him to the NHL and the start tonight at home to Carolina, a team that played (and lost) last night in Edmonton. The Hurricanes are averaging the most shots per minute of any team over their last 15 games but are 18th in goals per minute in that span. It gives Wolf a chance to see a lot of volume tonight.
Out of the 26 teams on the slate tonight, Stokastic’s GoalieStats section has the Flames giving up the seventh-most shots tonight. At reasonable prices across the industry, Wolf needs consideration in net for tournament lineups.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
PHI1: Tyson Foerster – Sean Couturier – Travis Konecny
Philadelphia seems to have found a trio they like as this forward group has finally reached 100 minutes together at 5-on-5. They have been dominant in their time together, creating 3.0 expected goals and 3.5 actual goals per 60 minutes, and controlling 60.8% of all shot attempts at 5-on-5. Foerster has a four-game point streak, Couturier a three-game streak, and Konecny has four points in his last four appearances. All three are averaging between 18:30 – 20:30 per game in ice time over their last five, and all three were on the team’s top power play unit in their last game (even if the power play remains stagnant).
Per the Top Stacks tool, this trio’s ownership on DK is expected to be nearly identical to their top-2 stack percentage. As a mid-priced line, it allows for another good stack alongside them, so they require some consideration. The ownership will be higher on FD, so DFS players on that site looking for lower ownership at a similar price, consider the Vancouver top line if Ilya Mikheyev-Elias Pettersson-Sam Lafferty.
BOS1: Jake DeBrusk – Pavel Zacha – David Pastrnak
Buffalo’s team defense has fallen apart over the last month as they’re 30th in the league by expected goals against per minute at 5-on-5 going back 13 games, and 26th by actual goals against. The penalty kill has not been much better, ranking in the bottom-10 by those same measures while short-handed. DeBrusk and Pastrnak have found chemistry together as the team is generating 72 shot attempts and 4.1 expected goals per 60 minutes in their time together, and this is a matchup against an injured/weak Buffalo roster that gave up five goals to Boston in a matchup three weeks ago.
This trio is coming in with positive leverage – meaning a higher top-2 stack probability than ownership rate – on both sites, though that proposition is better on DK than FD. Regardless, Boston is tied for the second-highest implied team goal total tonight and this trio is outside the top-3 lines by ownership on either site. As a top stack, they require some attention for this 13-gamer.
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*Additional best NHL DFS picks today stats from Natural Stat Trick
