Monday Night Football wraps up the Week 8 action, with the bumbling Las Vegas Raiders coming off a rough outing in Chicago and on the road again in Detroit against the Lions. In this issue of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Raiders-Lions DFS picks for the Monday Night Football Showdown slate.
Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Monday Night slate, so check out these Raiders-Lions DFS picks.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Raiders-Lions DFS Picks
Las Vegas Raiders: 19.5 Points
Quarterback
The Stokastic NFL DFS projections have Jimmy Garoppolo ranked as the QB24 for the full Week 8 player pool, which is not an enthusiastic endorsement, though with no teams on bye, he at least is ahead of a couple of his fellow field generals.
Las Vegas was dreadful last week in Chicago, losing 30-12 to the Bears in a game that was nowhere near as close as the final score. The Raiders put up their lone touchdown with just over a minute left in the game. Of course, that was with Brian Hoyer and rookie Aidan O’Connell at the helm, but as we saw on Sunday Night Football yesterday, the Chicago defense is far from ferocious.
Garoppolo does have touchdowns in each of his five starts, but only seven in total against eight interceptions. He also has topped 210 passing yards only once on the season. Detroit boasts the ninth-best passing DVOA, and only two quarterbacks have tallied more than 250 yards against the Lions.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs was on the field for a season-low 66% of the offensive plays, managing to record just 35 yards on 11 carries and four targets for one lonely 6-yard reception. He has surpassed 70 yards only once, and that was with 25 totes for 77 yards against New England. This is the third primetime game for Las Vegas in the last six weeks, so DFS gamers are painfully aware of how conservative this offense has become. It is not completely Jacobs’ fault, as opposing defenses have been keying on him all year, but the drop-off has been dramatic for the reigning NFL rushing leader.
Jakob Johnson will be on the field for around a quarter of the plays, but the fullback has just two targets on the season, and both came back in Week 4. Ameer Abdullah and Zamir White will step in when Jacobs is on the sidelines, though for the season this duo has combined for 13 carries for 47 rushing yards and 17 targets for 12 catches and another 84 yards. It is a coinflip trying to figure out which is the better option prior to kickoff.
Wide Receivers
Davante Adams is in his own personal hell, having a trio of terrible throwers trying to get him the ball. While he is averaging just over 10 targets per game, that is inflated by the 20 he saw in Week 3. In the last three games he has four, five and 12, so at least things are trending up, but he is far from a safe option tonight.
Jakobi Meyers has thrived with his new team; he is not far behind Adams with 9.3 targets per game, and he has scored in each of the last three tilts. In the five games he has played this season, Meyers has more fantasy points than Adams four times.
Hunter Renfrow (12 targets), Tre Tucker (7) and return man DeAndre Carter (5) are the only other wideouts to receive any offensive looks.
Tight Ends
Michael Mayer (insert goofy Halloween joke here) has come on strong over the last three games, as it seems that coach Josh McDaniels remembered that the second-round selection out of Notre Dame is on the roster. He has 13 of his 15 targets in the last three games and Detroit has been dreadful against opposing tight ends, ranking in the bottom 5 for fantasy points allowed. Veteran Austin Hooper has two targets in each of the last four games, so he is viable as a punt option tonight, though Jesper Horsted can be skipped over since he earned his first target of the season last week.
Defense/Special Teams
Detroit does a good job of protecting the quarterback and has allowed barely over two sacks per game this season, with only 15 sacks in seven games. These mirror the results of the Las Vegas defense, even with Maxx Crosby terrorizing opposing signal-callers. The Raiders have only five takeaways, which rank last in the league. The Lions have ceded just seven turnovers, with four interceptions and three fumbles.
Detroit Lions: 27.0 Points
Quarterback
It turns out that a change of scenery has done wonders for Jared Goff, especially as he was mostly a salary balancing throw-in as part of the larger Matthew Stafford deal. Last season Goff earned Pro Bowl honors for the third time in his career and the first since 2018. Compared to his nadir in the 2019 and 2020 seasons, Goff has increased his touchdown rate and lowered his interceptions in his two-plus seasons in the Motor City.
Los Angeles is in the bottom third of the league against the pass, and if not for some luck avoiding touchdowns, the Raiders would likely be in the bottom 5. Goff and the offense were shut down by the Ravens in Baltimore last week, but the much-maligned quarterback does have three games with multiple passing touchdowns and a pair of 320-plus-yard outings.
Running Backs
David Montgomery remains out, which bodes well for rookie Jahmyr Gibbs, who returned from a two-week injury hiatus with a whopping 87% snap share. Craig Reynolds (9%) was the only other running back to see the field in this game, and if you blinked, you probably missed him.
Gibbs had only 11 carries, but he accounted for 68 yards and a touchdown. More impressive were the 10 targets that he turned into nine catches for another 58 yards as the Lions were trying to catch up to the Ravens. It would seem that something in the 20-touch range is in play tonight, though the expectation is that passing game work sliding to half a dozen targets if Detroit can take care of business.
Wide Receivers
Thirty-four. That is the number of targets for Amon-Ra St. Brown over the last two weeks and represents half of his season total, keeping in mind he missed Week 5 with an abdomen injury. The dynamic receiver is currently questionable with an illness, but he is expected to suit up tonight.
Josh Reynolds is second on the team with 30 targets, though he has just six in the last two games, while Kalif Raymond checks in with five during this timeframe. Reynolds is typically on the field for 75% of the offensive plays, but he does not receive a commensurate amount of looks from his former Los Angeles teammate Goff.
Youngster Jameson Williams has seemingly moved ahead of this duo in the pecking order, having a solid 12 targets in his three games after wrapping up his suspension. It is likely just a matter of time before he moves from 35% to 40% of the snaps to the 50% range, likely at the expense of Reynolds.
Tight Ends
Rookie Sam LaPorta has been a revelation, with five or more targets in all but one game while twice reaching a ceiling of 11 looks. All told, he has 49 of the 55 targets to this position, with veteran Brock Wright picking up the balance.
Defense/Special Teams
The Lions have nine takeaways, which is in the middle of the pack, while the Raiders have lost three fumbles and suffered a league-high 12 interceptions. Las Vegas is allowing just over two sacks per game, which is the same as the Detroit defense.
Monday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.
Raiders-Lions DFS Picks Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Raiders-Lions
- Jahmyr Gibbs: Rising up the ranks; gets the slight nod over St. Brown.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: Minor downgrade with the illness.
- Jared Goff: No rushing upside; does have two touchdown plunges, though just 15 yards on 16 carries (includes a few kneeldowns).
- Jakobi Meyers: Discount to Adams gives him the edge, and he has earned it via his play as well.
- Sam LaPorta: Increasing salary, though he is behind only St. Brown in the passing game.
- Davante Adams: Still viable in the multiplier slot on both sites; could lay down a monster game at any time.
- Josh Jacobs: Hopefully his coach remembers he is on the team.
- Jimmy Garoppolo: Just doesn’t move the needle.
- Riley Patterson: Only eight field goal attempts on the season; all seven makes were inside 40 yards; the lone miss was from 50-plus.
- Michael Mayer: Salary drop on DraftKings after last week’s dud; the hope is we get a reprisal of Week 4 when he killed it!
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Raiders-Lions
- Daniel Carlson: Dealing with a groin injury, limited practice on Friday, making it tricky to trust the All-Pro.
- Jameson Williams: Talented, but hands need work.
- Josh Reynolds: Salary indicative of playing time and skills as a blocker but not fantasy production.
- Kalif Raymond: Mercurial output; returns punts.
- Craig Reynolds: Needs a rookie gaff or something else to befall Gibbs; prefer to keep this duo on separate rosters. Also returns kickoffs.
Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Raiders-Lions
- Detroit D/ST: Homefield advantage and a shaky opponent could lead to good things.
- Austin Hooper: Steady two targets per game; trusted in all facets but clearly a placeholder for Mayers.
- Tre Tucker and Hunter Renfrow: Each is in play for a target or two but not much more.
- Zamir White and Ameer Abdullah: In play for those crafting 50 or more lineups; Abdullah is at the $200 minimum on DraftKings, so the bold could look to him sooner if they are accepting of a likely zero.
- DeAndre Carter: Returns punts and kickoffs; usually assured of half a dozen offensive snaps and one look per game.
- Brock Wright: Another minimum player on DraftKings; over/under of half a target feels about right.
- Jakob Johnson, Jesper Horsted, Antoine Green, Brian Hoyer and Aidan O’Connell: Trick or Treat!
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