In this Week 11 NFL DFS preview, we’ll break down some of the top NFL DFS wide receiver picks, which include Tyreek Hill, as well as the best fades on DraftKings and FanDuel based on Stokastic’s data. Let’s examine the numbers and see where our attention should be while building lineups.
Top NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks & Fades for Week 11
The Week 11 main slate NFL player projections are live on site and we’ll be checking in to various price ranges to see who we should be targeting with our daily fantasy football picks.
It’s time to dig into the DraftKings and FanDuel NFL DFS data for Sunday.
NFL DFS Picks | Week 11 DraftKings & FanDuel Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
Tyreek Hill’s Week 11 NFL DFS boom and bust probabilities are as high as anyone in the player pool on DraftKings and FanDuel once again. He’ll try to get the better of the Raiders, with the Dolphins implied for 29 points and favored by a staggering 19 on their home turf.
We all know what Hill brings to the table week in and week out, and it’s nice to see him on a main slate since he’s so often been involved in primetime and other island games as of late. The Dolphins’ wideout has a 15.0% boom probability and 14.2% optimal rate on DraftKings and a 16.6% boom probability and 14.0% optimal rate on FanDuel for this Sunday.
When looking through Hill’s NFL Week 11 odds, bets and player props page on OddsShopper, his receiving yards line is up in the 90.5 to 91.5 yards range, while his anytime touchdown odds are at -160.
Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars
Stokastic’s projections are backing Calvin Ridley against a susceptible Titans secondary for Week 11 NFL DFS on DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s showing in 14.8% of optimal lineups at $5,400 on DraftKings and 12.00% of optimal lineups at $6,500 on FanDuel.
Ridley has been pretty inconsistent throughout 2024 so far and is coming off a dud outing (2 receptions for 20 yards) in a 34-3 loss to the 49ers in Week 10. Still, his price has come down to very approachable levels and this is a winnable matchup against Tennessee.
On OddsShopper, Ridley has a receiving yards prop of 50.5 yards and an anytime touchdown line of +200 for Week 11.
Other wide receivers ranking well in boom probability at time of writing include Tank Dell, Cooper Kupp, CeeDee Lamb, Keenan Allen and Amon-Ra St. Brown among others. We suggest going through the entirety of the data at all positions as you finalize your NFL DFS lineups for the week.
NFL DFS Fades | Week 11 DraftKings & FanDuel Wide Receivers
Using Stokastic’s player projection and boom/bust data, we can see which WRs may not be in the best situations to succeed for NFL DFS purposes.
Who’s showing with a high likelihood of busting for fantasy football? Let’s look into the data below.
Gabriel Davis, Buffalo Bills
Gabriel Davis has one of the highest bust probabilities at the WR position in a tougher-looking matchup against a talented Jets secondary. He’s priced at $5,500 on DraftKings and $6,400 on FanDuel ahead of Week 11.
We’ve seen Davis pop up for ceiling games seemingly out of nowhere, which makes a full fade a bit scary. At this point in the week though, the Stokastic NFL DFS boom and bust probabilities have him at a 67.7% bust probability (0.5% boom) on DraftKings and a 60.5% bust probability (0.3% boom) on FanDuel.
The Gabe Davis odds, bets and player props page on OddsShopper has his rushing yards prop listed anywhere from 35.5 to 36.5 yards depending on the online sportsbook operator, and he has an anytime TD line of +240 for Week 11’s matchup.
Make sure to look through all of the running back DFS data to see what else stands out in the NFL player projections.
As usual, there is some important injury news we are waiting on, so it will be critical to monitor any updates that come in all the way through Sunday to see if better NFL DFS picks and running back values open up before lock.
We should also remember that accurate NFL DFS player projections are just one piece of the daily fantasy football puzzle and that other factors like projected ownership, roster construction and game theory should be considered when building lineups.
More Stokastic Week 11 NFL DFS Tools 🏈
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NFL Lineup Generator
NFL Player Projections
NFL Ownership Projections
NFL Boom/Bust Probability
NFL Top Stacks Tool
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