Alexandre Pantoja is a popular pick to upset champion Brandon Moreno in the co-main event of UFC 290 on Saturday, July 8.
Pantoja is one of multiple underdogs getting plenty of betting action the UFC 290 card, which will take place in Las Vegas and is headlined by Alexander Volkanovski against Yair Rodriguez.
This public betting data is based on information released by BetMGM on Saturday morning.
UFC 290 Public Betting: Alexandre Pantoja-Brandon Moreno & More
A win on Saturday for Alexandre Pantoja over Brandon Moreno wouldn’t be the first. It’s well-documented at this point that Pantoja beat Moreno back in 2018 by unanimous decision. Since that win, Pantoja has gone 6-2 in the UFC with losses to Deiveson Figueiredo and Askar Askarov. He’s on a three-fight win streak, with two wins via submission.
Moreno went on a run since that loss in 2018, going 7-1-2, with a draw and loss to Figueiredo, but he avenged both of those results with two wins in 2021 and January of this year.
Bettors hope history repeats itself with another Pantoja win. According to BetMGM, 73% of the total bets on the right are on Pantoja as a +175 underdog. Of the total dollars bet on the fight, 61% are on the challenger.
That follows a trend of bettors backing the underdogs.
The underdog on each main card match is attracting more of the bets than the favorite. That’s not completely uncommon on cards like this; there is no favorite on the card with odds shorter than -200. With longer odds available on underdogs, bettors are taking their shot.
In the main event, 78% of bets are on Rodriguez. As a result, his odds have dropped from +340 to +290. The favorite, Volkanovski, is now -375 after opening as a -450 favorite.
The closest fight on the board in terms of both odds and betting splits is between Dan Hooker and Jalin Turner. Hooker, a +225 underdog, is taking 67% of bets. However, 84% of the money is on Turner. That’s forced Turner to move from a -200 favorite to -275.
It’s important to note UFC 290 public betting data like this isn’t incredibly actionable. Even if you want to fade the public or assume a sharp vs. public side, these metrics don’t encapsulate all of the information, such as at what odds were these bets placed. A bet on Jalin Turner at -200 doesn’t mean the same thing as a bet on him at -275.
Nonetheless, it can sometimes be helpful — or at least just fun — knowing where the action is going.
That’s not all there is to know for UFC 290 on Saturday. We’ve also got UFC 290 DFS picks and projections, too.
