The UFC returns to Nashville for UFC Fight Night: Cory Sandhagen-Fob Font. The veteran fighters are joined by Tatiana Suarez and Jessica Andrade in the night’s co-main event. This card comes with extra wrinkles for UFC DFS and features several fights with shorter favorites. Let’s review some UFC DFS picks and value plays with the help of Stokastic’s UFC DFS projections. Let’s get into some UFC Fight Night DFS picks, predictions and more!
UFC Fight Night DFS Picks: Cory Sandhagen-Rob Font
*The salaries below are from DraftKings. For top FanDuel UFC fight Night DFS picks, check out Stokastic’s MMA fantasy point and ownership projections available at Stokastic.
Diego Lopes, $8,300
Diego Lopes has had huge line movement in his favor throughout the week. After entering the week as a -130 favorite over Gavin Tucker, Lopes is now -175 to win the fight. Lopes is coming off a loss to Movsar Evloev, but he fought extremely well in that fight, which he took on short notice. Meanwhile, it’s Tucker’s first fight in over two years. He did knockout Dan Ige in that last bout, but it has been a lengthy layoff since then.
Lopes has a Brazilian Jiu-jitsu background and he coaches Irene Aldana. He holds a 21-6 professional record with eight wins coming via knockout and eleven by submission. Lopes has been knocked out twice himself, which should be the main concern in any of his fights.
Lopes UFC stats are particularly difficult to evaluate. He has losses to high quality opponents like Evloev and Joanderson Brito, but he has allowed seven takedowns and defends them at just 36% in those two bouts. Lopes hasn’t landed any takedowns himself, but he’s attempted seven submissions. He lands just 2.26 significant strikes per minute on the feet, while absorbing 5.24 strikes. It’s submissions and grappling where he shines and what really proved his well rounded game in his last match against Evloev.Â
On the other side, Tucker has a background in a variety of mixed martial arts. He holds a black belt in BJJ, but he also participated in Taekwondo and Judo prior to transitioning. Tucker averages 2.98 takedowns per bout, while defending them at a 53% clip. He throws more volume than Lopes on the feet, landing 4.39 significant strikes per minute, and absorbing 4.28. At 37-years old, Tucker has a 13-2 professional record, including four knockouts and six submissions. Tucker has been knocked out once, but his durability generally holds up.Â
It’s tough to know what Tucker offers at this point given his two-year layoff. Lopes’ specialty on the ground may also neutralize Tucker’s normally solid wrestling game. There has been tons of money coming in on Diego Lopes throughout the week which has helped him also emerge as a strong mid-range play for UFC DFS purposes.
Damon Jackson, $7,300
The fight between Damon Jackson and Billy Quarantillo is gonna be a banger. Jackson is entering as a +150 underdog here, but both fighters are coming off losses. Jackson was knocked out by Dan Ige in his most recent fight. Quarantillo also lost via knockout to Edson Barboza back in April. Most importantly for DFS is the pace of this fight, which is the highest on the slate in Stokastic’s UFC DFS projections.
Quarantillo has a 17-5 professional record, including eight knockouts and five submissions. He’s been knocked out twice himself, but that comes with the territory given Quarantillo’s brawling style. A black belt in BJJ, Quarantillo averages 1.51 takedowns per bout, while defending them at 58% himself. Very few fighters control Quarantillo on the mat and he has shown the ability to work to his feet when he does get taken down. He lands 7.86 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 5.79. His 40% striking defense remains a major concern, which you can see in some of the striking wars he’s participated in his career.Â
Jackson comes from a wrestling background, averaging 2.35 takedowns per fight. Interestingly, Jackson only defends takedowns at a 40% rate, but few fighters dare to test his wrestling. Jackson will also accept takedowns at times in order to work his own ground game. He lands 2.78 significant strikes per minute while on the feet, and is absorbing 2.92 himself. Jackson holds a 22-5 record with four knockout wins and 22 submissions. He’s been knocked out four times, which is the biggest concern for him here.Â
Quarantillo is likely to win this fight, but Jackson grades out as one of the best underdogs on the card. It’s a bout that is likely to score well due to its pace and Jackson’s wrestling. This is not a fight to leave out of UFC DFS lineups on Saturday.
Tatiana Suarez, $9,500
The co-main event between Tatiana Suarez and Jessica Andrade should be another banger. Suarez is very big favorite (-375), but anything can happen. The fight has the second highest project pace on the card, not to mention finishing potential. Suarez has a perfect 9-0 record and just ended a long layoff this February with a submission win over Montana De La Rosa. Andrade has dropped each of her last two fights, the first to Erin Blanchfield and then to Yan Xianoan.
Suarez notably rattled off a four fight winning streak to begin her UFC career, which featured opponents like Alexa Grasso, Carla Esparza and Nina Nunes. She comes from a wrestling background, but has developed into a well-rounded fighter. Suarez lands an absurd 6.12 takedowns per bout, and she has been perfect in takedown defense so far with a 100% rate on defense. She lands 4.35 significant strikes per bout and absorbs just 1.34. Suarez also has two knockouts and four submissions to her name.Â
Andrade is a former Strawweight title holder who comes from a grappling background, holding a black belt in BJJ. Andrade averages 2.61 takedowns per bout, while defending them at a 73% rate. She’s hyper-aggressive on the feet, landing 6.82 significant strikes per bout, while absorbing 5.40 herself. Andrade has a 24-11 record with nine knockouts and eight submissions. Interestingly, she has been knocked out five times and submitted three times herself. Her losses create some sticker shock, but Andrade has only faced the best female fighters in the world over the last ten years.
One of the biggest holes in Andrade’s game has been her inability to defend takedowns against the highest level of competition. Suarez has some of the best wrestling in the UFC, which presents a major issue for Andrade. While Suarez comes with an elevated $9,500 price tag, she may also provide leverage off some of the other expensive fighters like Cory Sandhagen. It makes Suarez another strong play for UFC DFS lineups this week.
