There is an 11-game MLB slate tonight. Ownership should be spread out, as there is not a game in Coors Field or Cincinnati, nor are the ultra-popular Cubs on the slate. There are also plenty of quality pitching options, though most of them will have to deal with a difficult park and/or matchup. Now let’s get into some expert MLB DFS advice for Friday, Aug. 4.
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MLB DFS Advice: Start Builds With Red Sox-Blue Jays | August 4
Game of the Day: Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are currently first in top stack percentage and Stack Score in the Top Stacks Tool as they face Alek Manoah in Fenway Park. Manoah has struck out 23% of hitters in his four starts since returning to the Blue Jays, but he has still walked 13.8% of hitters and has a 4.93 FIP and 5.8 xFIP, so he remains a huge question mark. Overall this season, he has an 18.4% strikeout percentage and 6.04 xFIP. The Red Sox have a 5.8 implied run total, and they have plenty of left-handed power against Manoah, who has allowed a .240 xISO and .404 xwOBA to left-handed hitters this year. Rafael Devers and Triston Casas look like excellent plays in particular.
The Blue Jays have a more difficult matchup against James Paxton, but they get a park upgrade going from the Rogers Centre to Fenway Park. Paxton has reverse splits this season and has handled right-handed hitters extremely well, with a 31% strikeout percentage and .269 xwOBA allowed. Still, the Blue Jays have a 4.7 implied run total and plenty of power in their lineup. They are currently fifth with a 6.2% chance of being the top scoring stack at 5.3% projected ownership.
Paxton has a dangerous matchup, but he also is a strong contrarian play at only $9,000 on DraftKings. Paxton’s 28.4% strikeout percentage is the third highest on the slate, and he has a strong 3.55 xFIP to go along with it. Toronto will most likely have a predominantly right-handed lineup, but Paxton has struck out 31% of right-handed hitters this year, so there is plenty of upside available. He has about a 10% chance of being a top-2 scoring pitcher at around 5% ownership.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Batters
Yordan Alvarez (HOU): $6,000 on DraftKings, $4,300 on FanDuel
Jack Suwinski (PIT): $3,600 on DraftKings, $3,100 on FanDuel
Kyle Schwarber (PHI): $4,600 on DraftKings, $3,800 on FanDuel
For more top hitters, check out Stokastic’s Top Batters Tool!
Yordan Alvarez: Alvarez gets to face Luis Severino in Yankee Stadium. As recently as last season, this would be a tough matchup in a good park. Severino has been awful this year, however, and it sets up as a great spot for Alvarez. Left-handed hitters have produced a .404 xwOBA and .231 xISO against Severino this season. Alvarez has a .449 xwOBA and .346 xISO in his 182 plate appearances against righties this year and will look to take advantage of the short porch in right field.
Jack Suwinski: Suwinski continues to be one of the most mispriced hitters relative to home run upside. He has a .403 xwOBA and .347 xISO in 268 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers this season, and he will face Colin Rea tonight in Milwaukee. Rea has been a serviceable pitcher, but he has allowed a .200 xISO to left-handed hitters while only striking them out 19.1% of the time.
Kyle Schwarber: Schwarber has a strong case for the best overall hitting play on the slate when price is included. He faces Jordan Lyles in Philadelphia. Citizens Bank Park has a 112 home run park factor for left-handed hitters over the last three years, while Lyles’ home park has a 78 home run park factor for lefties over that time. Overall this season, Lyles has allowed a .243 ISO and .224 xISO to lefties and has just a 17% strikeout percentage. Schwarber has produced a .344 xwOBA and .219 xISO in 320 plate appearances against righties this year and has the clear advantage against Lyles.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Pitchers
Aaron Nola (PHI): $10,000 on DraftKings, $9,900 on FanDuel
Reid Detmers (LAA): $8,200 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
Luis Castillo (SEA): $10,200 on DraftKings, $10,700 on FanDuel
For more top pitchers, check out Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool!
Aaron Nola: Nola is one of the few good pitchers on tonight’s slate who also has a good matchup, as he faces the Kansas City Royals in Philadelphia. While the park is favorable for hitters, it is worth noting that Nola has been a better pitcher at home for most of his career, and it has continued this season. He has struck out 27.4% of hitters and has a 3.41 xFIP and .256 wOBA allowed in 52.1 innings at home, compared to striking out 23.3% of hitters and a 4.08 xFIP and .324 wOBA allowed on the road. Kansas City’s active roster has an 86 wRC+ and 23.2% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this year. Nola leads the slate with a 21.6% chance of being a top-2 scoring pitcher tonight at 37% projected ownership.
Reid Detmers (LAA): Detmers’ 29.3% strikeout percentage is highest on the slate, and he is affordably priced in a matchup against the Mariners. Seattle has plenty of power, most of it right-handed, but Detmers has been excellent at striking out right-handed hitters this season in addition to limiting their power. He has a 31.8% strikeout percentage against righties while allowing just a .308 xwOBA and .131 xISO. Detmers has struggled to work deep into games, a result of nearly 40% of at-bats against him ending in a strikeout or a walk, but his reduced salary factors that in.
Luis Castillo: Castillo has a dangerous matchup against the Shohei Ohtani-led Angels, and he gets a substantial park downgrade going from Seattle to Anaheim. Still, he is one of the most talented pitchers on the slate, as he enters tonight’s game with a 28.3% strikeout percentage and 3.60 xFIP. He has had issues with left-handed power, which is concerning when he will need to face Ohtani, along with several other lefties, but Castillo still ranks second on the slate with a 16.6% chance of being a top-2 scoring pitcher. He is projected for about 22% ownership.
