The UFC returns to Las Vegas for UFC Fight Night: Holly Holm vs. Mayra Bueno Silva. They will be joined by Jack Della Maddalena and Bassil Hafez in the co-main event. This Fight Night card comes with extra wrinkles for UFC DFS and features several fights with short underdogs. Let’s review some UFC DFS picks, value plays with the help of Stokastic’s UFC DFS projections.
UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Value Plays: Holly Holm-Mayra Bueno Silva
*The salaries below are from DraftKings. For top FanDuel UFC fight Night DFS picks, check out Stokastic’s MMA fantasy point and ownership projections available at Stokastic.
Albert Duraev, $7,700
Albert Duraev’s matchup against Jun Yong Park was originally scheduled to be the co-main event for Saturday’s card. While that changed once Jack Della Maddalena was moved to the UFC Fight Night. Duraev comes in as a +130 underdog. He sits at 2-1 in the UFC, including a victory over Chidi Njokuani by split decision this March. Park has a 6-2 record in the UFX and is currently riding a three-fight winning streak. His most recent win comes over Denis Tiuliulin.
Duraev looks like an intriguing underdog for UFC DFS to target for a few reasons. First of all, this fight comes in with the third highest projected pace, according to the Stokastic UFC DFS projections. There is also a decent chance this fight hits the mat, which also scores well for DFS.
Duraev lands 2.07 takedowns per bout with 27% accuracy. His 50% takedown defense looks suspect at first glance, but he has only faced a pair of takedowns in his UFC career. That is almost as small of a sample as you can find. Most opponents respect Duraev’s wrestling and realize he has an edge there. However, Park lands 2.33 takedowns himself with 51% accuracy. Park has 70% takedown defense, but he has not faced many wrestlers of Duraev’s ability.
Additionally, when Duraev loses, it generally comes via knockout. Park has five knockouts in his career, but he has yet to earn one in the UFC. Duraev has solid enough striking defense at 63% to neutralize Park in this realm.
Duraev has enough advantages to target as an underdog in this bout that should be a high scoring affair for UFC DFS.
Evan Elder, $9,400
Maddalena and Azat Maksum project to come in as highly owned fighters and they are also the highest priced fighters. That creates potential for other expensive fighters like Evan Elder to come in under owned. Elder enters this fight as a -300 favorite over Genaro Valdez. Elder actually sits at 0-2 in the UFC, but he was ahead on the judges scorecards against Nazim Sadykhov prior to a judge’s stoppage. Valdez has an 0-2 UFC record as well.
With both fighters 0-2 in the UFC, the statistics are not going to do either any favors. However, the bout comes in with the highest projected pace on the entire card. Elder lands 3.78 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 5.42. Valdez is even more aggressive, landing 3.96 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 7.63. Valdez also appears to have some wrestling chops, averaging 2.5 takedowns per bout. Elder comes in with a 0.59 takedown average.
The Elder-Valdez fight projects to be all action right from the jump. Elder is still a sizable favorite, and the leverage makes sense here. regardless of which side you play, this is a strong fight to target for DFS.
Terrance McKinney, $7,500
Terrance McKinney looks like another viable UFC DFS pick in his fight against Nazim Sadykhov. McKinney is a +115 underdog with the betting line moving in his direction. He lost his last fight via flying knee at the hands of Ismael Bonfim in January. Sadykhov won his most recent fight via doctor’s stoppage after falling behind early.
From a stylistic perspective, this fight projects to be an all-action standup affair. Stokastic’s UFC DFS projections rank this as the second-highest paced fight. Sadykhov lands 5.17 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.47 himself. McKinney comes in with 3.78 significant strikes per minute with 2.96 strikes absorbed. While wrestling is not the most likely outcome behind Sadykhov’s 80% takedown defense, McKinney does average 3.41 takedowns per bout. That has also come against better competition than anything Sadykhov has faced to this point in his career.
Notably, McKinney has never seen the judges scorecards in his career, giving this fight a good chance to finish early. If McKinney is the more well-rounded fighter so if he can weather the strikes from Sadykhov, he is worth a dart throw as an underdog UFC DFS pick.
