NFL DFS High-Upside Picks Week 1: Boom/Bust Probability

Using Stokastic’s NFL boom/bust probability tool, we can see how likely players are to meet their ceilings and floors in the big NFL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel, relative to their median projections. Let’s dive into the top NFL DFS upside picks — and the top NFL DFS fades — by looking at their boom-or-bust probabilities for opening weekend. Justin Herbert stands out as an NFL DFS upside pick for Week 1.

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NFL DFS Upside Picks & Fades for Week 1

Let’s first quickly refresh our memories about what data points we can find on the boom/bust tool, along with explanations of what each column represents. We’ll primarily be referencing boom and bust percentages in this overview as we search for the high-upside plays that can help win us DFS tournaments.

Boom%: Probability of achieving positional target score based on chance of being the top 1 QB, top 2 RB, etc.

Bust%: Probability of failing to achieve positional value – 2 fantasy points.

Ceiling: 75th percentile performance

Floor: 25th percentile performance

Optimal%: Probability that player will be in the perfect lineup that slate.

As the data team continues to refine projections leading up to Week 1, these numbers are sure to fluctuate, particularly if any worthwhile news comes out. With that in mind, be sure to keep glued to Stokastic’s tools later on in the week to see if anything changes before lineups lock.

NFL DFS Week 1 Boom Picks – Sunday Morning Update #2

Projections have been updated again. Here’s a look at Stokastic’s boom probability ratings for Week 1 as of 11:50 AM ET:

Top five overall boom probabilities on DraftKings:

Tyreek Hill (19.0 percent)
Commanders D/ST (17.2 percent)
Buccaneers D/ST (14.8 percent)
Isaiah Likely (11.8 percent)
Justin Jefferson (11.7 percent)

Top five overall boom probabilities on FanDuel:

Tyreek Hill (17.3 percent)
Bijan Robinson (14.5 percent)
Buccaneers D/ST (14.3 percent)
Ja’Marr Chase (10.7 percent)
Chris Olave (10.6 percent)

Be sure to check the tool all the way to lock to see if there are any more updates. Best of luck in Week 1!

NFL DFS Week 1 Boom Picks – Sunday Morning Update #1

Injury updates: Mark Andrews is now not expected to play per reports. Keep tracking the player news through lock so you are in the know while building lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Stokastic’s data team has been monitoring the news and adjusting projections as needed. The current overview of the updated NFL boom probability ratings, as of Sunday morning at 9:30 AM ET, with one more final update to come before lock:

DraftKings

Tyreek Hill is now up to a 19.8 percent boom probability on DraftKings and tops the slate in that regard. He’s then followed by the Commanders D/ST (17.2 percent) and Chris Olave (13.5 percent) in the top three across all positions.

Positionally, we see Justin Herbert (11.8 percent) still ahead of the pack at quarterback and he is trailed by Anthony Richardson (9.9 percent) and Geno Smith (7.5 percent) in the top three.

At running back, there are a lot of options bunched together at the top, including Bijan Robinson (8.0 percent boom probability), Austin Ekeler (7.6 percent), J.K. Dobbins (7.3 percent) and Derrick Henry (6.3 percent). Henry is no longer at the top in boom probability like he was earlier in the week.

Hill is the main man at wide receiver on DraftKings when it comes to Stokastic’s updated Week 1 boom probability, while Olave, Mike Williams, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase and Keenan Allen all clear the 10 percent mark.

With news that Andrews is likely to sit, Isaiah Likely has shifted to the number one position at tight end with an 11.6 percent boom probability. The Commanders rank first as far as defenses go.

FanDuel

Tyreek Hill, Buccaneers D/ST, Ja’Marr Chase, Chris Olave and Anthony Richardson take up the top five spots in boom probability on FanDuel in our first morning update.

We’ll check back soon for another look as more news comes in and player projections are finalized.

NFL DFS Picks – Week 1 Boom Picks & Targets

Justin Herbert

DraftKings – $6,900; 10.8% Boom | FanDuel – $8,100; 9.0% Boom

The Chargers’ Justin Herbert takes up the top spot for NFL DFS boom probability in the Week 1 main slate quarterback rankings, currently beating out Joe Burrow by a few percentage points on DraftKings and a half percentage point on FanDuel.

Herbert finished 2022 with 4,739 passing yards, 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, helping Los Angeles to a 10-7 regular season record before the team fell short 31-30 to Jacksonville in the playoffs. Expectations are high for Herbert entering his fourth season, and there’s no shortage of weapons at his disposal — Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams all enter Week 1 healthy in what should be an entertaining game against Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and the Dolphins. This matchup features the highest total of the main slate (51) and looks prime for fantasy production and stacking on both sides.

Derrick Henry

DraftKings – $7,800; 9.0% Boom | FanDuel – $8,500; 10.3% Boom

Things look a little different in Nashville these days, as DeAndre Hopkins entered the fray this offseason to add a bit more balance back to the Tennessee offense. The passing game has been a mess ever since the departure of A.J. Brown to Philadelphia.

You know who hasn’t been a mess? Derrick Henry. The bruising back had a busy 2022, rushing 349 times for 1,538 yards and 13 touchdowns while adding 33 receptions for 398 yards, the most receptions and receiving yards in a single season of his career. Entering 2023, Henry figures to be the focal point of this offense yet again, and his strong boom probabilities on both sites for this encounter with the Saints would suggest he’s worth a serious look for DFS lineups Week 1.

Tyreek Hill

DraftKings – $8,200; 15.6% Boom | FanDuel – $8,800; 14.5% Boom

We broke down Tyreek Hill more in our wide receiver overview earlier in the week, and the speedster remains atop both projections and boom probability among wideouts for Sunday’s main slate. In fact, Hill has the highest Stokastic boom probability of anyone across any position for Week 1.

This Chargers-Dolphins game will be heavily targeted by DFS players on both DraftKings and FanDuel. There are big-time playmakers on both teams, and it’s easy to envision a back-and-forth affair given the capabilities of the two offenses and close spread (the Chargers come in favored by 3 at home). Hill epitomizes the word boom considering some of the wild stat lines he’s put up over the years, and he will be hard to fade in this spot despite high projected ownership.

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Mark Andrews

UPDATE: Andrews now unlikely to play Week 1.

Rap: Mark Andrews (quad) unlikely to play Week 1.

— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) September 10, 2023

DraftKings – $6,200; 8.6% Boom | FanDuel – $8,000; 7.5% Boom

It’s tightly bunched atop the boom/bust probability chart for tight ends. Mark Andrews is narrowly edging Irv Smith Jr. (7.6%) and Dalton Schultz (6.7%) on DraftKings at an 8.6% boom percentage while being just shy of Schultz on the FanDuel tool. It should be noted Andrews is listed as questionable with a quad issue after being limited at practice a couple of days this week, though he’s still expected to be active come Sunday.

Assuming he does suit up, few tight ends have offered as much fantasy production as Andrews in recent years. There also is not the luxury of rostering Travis Kelce on this slate. Andrews, who had an 83% snap share last season, has always been a favorite target of Lamar Jackson, and it’s not exactly a matchup to shy away from either against the Texans.

NFL DFS Picks – Week 1 Bust Picks & Fades

Bryce Young

DraftKings – $5,500; 61.9% Bust | FanDuel – $6,500; 57.8% Bust

Even at his low salaries on DraftKings and FanDuel, Stokastic’s data team is not expecting much of anything from Bryce Young, at least to start the season against Atlanta in Week 1. The rookie quarterback finds himself at the top of the pile in bust probability on both sites.

There are plenty of higher-upside DFS options to consider at quarterback for Week 1, so feel safe in staying away from an unproven Young in his first-ever NFL start.

Cordarrelle Patterson

DraftKings – $5,500; 89.0% Bust | FanDuel – $5,400; 82.5% Bust

Patterson has done a bit of everything and put up some strong fantasy production in the past, but the offense has changed and the versatile back is going to struggle to see enough of the ball this season. Bijan Robinson was drafted eighth overall and is going to immediately step in and command a lot of the backfield work, and Tyler Allgeier will be involved as well.

That’s going to leave slim pickings for Patterson in general, who’s given a whopping 89.0% bust probability on DraftKings for Sunday’s divisional battle against the Panthers.

Rashod Bateman

DraftKings – $5,300; 83.7% Bust | FanDuel – $6,100; 75.7% Bust

As of Friday afternoon, Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections are not favoring Baltimore wide receiver Rashod Bateman for Week 1.

Priced at $5,300 on DraftKings and $6,100 on FanDuel, Bateman had an injury-riddled 2022, finishing with 15 catches for 285 yards and two touchdowns in seven games, and he comes into the new season with quite a bit of competition for targets in the wideout group, including newcomer Odell Beckham Jr., rookie Zay Flowers and Nelson Agholor.

UPDATE: Mark Andrews is not expected to play Week 1. Bateman’s bust rating has subsequently moved down to 66.7 percent on DraftKings and 58.4 percent on FanDuel.

DraftKings – $4,400; 69.7% Bust | FanDuel – $5,200; 60.1% Bust

With the Bears adding more weapons to the offense during the offseason, the target share Kmet had established could start diminishing quickly.

Chicago brought both D.J. Moore and Robert Tonyan into the mix for 2023, and Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool will be competing for touches too, so it’s not all that surprising to see Stokastic giving Kmet a near 70% bust probability on DraftKings in Week 1 against Green Bay. His FanDuel bust number is just over 60%.

REMINDER: Stay up to date with all NFL player news and projection updates leading up to lock on Sunday to ensure you’re making the most informed lineup decisions possible.

Stokastic has plenty more free NFL DFS content on the NFL homepage and the best live shows and videos from your favorite analysts on our YouTube channel. You can also chat strategy with the team and the rest of our sharp community on the Stokastic Discord!

Good luck and enjoy Week 1!

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Author

Scott Krones

Scott is a writer and editor at Stokastic and OddsShopper with a passion for DFS and sports betting. His previous stops include Better Collective, RotoGrinders and RotoWire, and his favorite team is Liverpool.