Despite bye weeks being over, the NFL has only 10 games on the Sunday main slate, as some games are starting to be moved to Saturday late in the year. With limited options, ownership may start to get condensed, so make sure to make a few pivots in tournament builds along the way. This article features four boom candidates for NFL DFS picks in Week 15, including Patrick Mahomes and four bust/fade options at each position on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Using this tool as the main NFL DFS projections source is imperative when constructing DraftKings and FanDuel NFL lineups.
NFL DFS Picks Week 15: Best High-Upside Plays
NFL DFS Picks Week 15 Boom Picks
QB Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs
DraftKings – $8,100; 13.1% Boom | FanDuel – $9,100; 14.2% Boom
After not being a priority for the last few weeks due to difficult matchups, Patrick Mahomes comes into this week as the creme de la creme. Mahomes and the Chiefs have the highest implied total on the slate at 31.75 points in a road matchup against the Texans who are still with only one win and a tie this season. This is a dream spot for Mahomes who is leading the league in yards passing, touchdowns passing and QBR for all quarterbacks by a comfortable margin. Mahomes also has by far the highest boom percentage on both sites, and the Chiefs are 14-point favorites.
With the highest implied total on the slate, it shouldn’t be surprising the Chiefs also rank first in Stokastic’s Top Stack tool with the first team all season who has had a 100 rating on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The Chiefs also rank in the top five in pass rate, so expect Mahomes to air it out early and often in this game. With such a high spread, the Chiefs may let off the gas early, but Mahomes will find a way to reach value. Not only is Mahomes projected for the most fantasy points on the slate, but he also has the highest value on FanDuel and the third highest on DraftKings in Stokastic’s projections. He is that good of a play.
RB Josh Jacobs – Las Vegas Raiders
DraftKings – $8,100; 19.1% Boom | FanDuel – $9,200; 16.8% Boom
Leading the league in yards rushing by over 200 yards, Josh Jacobs is the best running back on the main slate. There are some other intriguing options at running back like Austin Ekeler and Derrick Henry to name a few, but Jacobs has the highest boom percentage on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Jacobs also leads the league with 24.1 touches per game, and he has scored 11 touchdowns rushing. He has yet to capture a touchdown receiving, but Jacobs ranks third on the Raiders in target share with 11.6%. The Raiders give Jacobs as many touches as he can handle each and every week.
Getting so many touches as a running back has led to some limited practices, but he has yet to miss a game all season, which is credit to Jacobs for his durability. The Raiders are hosting the Patriots while this spread is currently even with the total sitting at 44.5 points. The Patriots defense ranks third in total DVOA this season, but they rank 10th in run DVOA and outside the top 10 in yards rushing allowed. One of the main ways for the Raiders to move the ball is through Jacobs, and the Patriots will do whatever they can to take out Davante Adams. In Stokastic’s projections, Jacobs has the highest fantasy score outside of the quarterback position on both sites. Make sure he is healthy, but Jacobs looks fantastic this week.
WR CeeDee Lamb – Dallas Cowboys
DraftKings – $7,300; 11.7% Boom | FanDuel – $8,100; 9.7% Boom
The pivot to CeeDee Lamb didn’t quite work out last week, as the Cowboys did nearly all of their damage on the ground with Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott. However, the Jaguars present a pass-funnel matchup for the Cowboys, as they rank 16th in run DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA this season. They are allowing 253.3 yards per game through the air, which is the fifth highest in the league. The Jaguars allowed 40 points to the Lions two weeks ago, making this a very exploitable matchup for Lamb.
Lamb is behind Adams in boom percentage on FanDuel but leads the slate on DraftKings, as his salary is very affordable on both sites. He ranks third in the entire league in target share at 28.4%, but that number has gone down recently. In his last four weeks, Lamb has only 21 receptions on 29 receptions for an average of 63.8 yards receiving per game. Lamb has one touchdown during that time with an average of 14.7 DraftKings points per game. He has shown his upside previously this season, which makes him a high-ceiling target. This is a perfect matchup to get back on track with a huge performance.
TE Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs
DraftKings – $7,800; 23.2% Boom | FanDuel – $8,000; 30.6% Boom
It is rare to see a boom percentage this high for both DraftKings and FanDuel for the same player, but Travis Kelce trumps all. With a 30%-plus boom percentage on FanDuel and 23.2% on DraftKings, Kelce is the obvious pairing with Mahomes this week. That shouldn’t be a surprise, as Kelce leads the Chiefs in receptions, targets, yards receiving and touchdowns with a career-high 12. Kelce hasn’t topped 100 yards in three straight games, but the Texans will have absolutely no answer to stop him this week. Fading Kelce seems like a recipe to get dunked on with four touchdown receptions.
The Texans are much worse defending the run than the pass this season, but that is not what the Chiefs want to do. They are a quick-strike offense and Mahomes and Kelce have been the best quarterback and tight end duo for nearly a decade. Wide receiver Mecole Hardman practiced this week, but his status remains up in the air. Kadarius Toney may be back as well, paired with JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Even though the Chiefs wide receiving core is getting healthier, this is still the Kelce and Mahomes show. Pair them both and print money this weekend.
NFL DFS Picks Week 15 Busts/Fades
QB Jared Goff – Detroit Lions
DraftKings – $5,700; 48.9% Bust | FanDuel – $7,300; 54.9% Bust
Opposite of Mahomes, Jared Goff has been one of the best cheap quarterbacks on the slate for several weeks in a row and he has delivered with some great performances. In back-to-back games, Goff has averaged 335 yards passing per game with five touchdowns and zero interceptions. He also averaged 26.9 DraftKings points per game, which easily exceeded his value. However, Goff will not get the luxury of playing against the Vikings and Jaguars defense. This week Goff faces off against the Jets defense that ranks sixth in total DVOA and pass DVOA this season, making him a strong fade.
For a player who has looked amazing in Stokastic’s tools the past few weeks, Goff has taken a hit due to this tough matchup, and he has one of the highest bust percentages for a quarterback this week. In Stokastic’s Top Stack tool, the Lions rank dead last on FanDuel and have the fourth lowest on DraftKings. Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown will have his hands full with Jets rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner. If St. Brown is taken away it could be trouble for the Lions moving the ball through the air. The Jets are only allowing 189.4 yards passing per game, which ranks fifth-best in the league. Get your cheap quarterback exposure elsewhere.
RB Tony Pollard – Dallas Cowboys
DraftKings – $7,100; 53.7% Bust | FanDuel – $8,200; 50.4% Bust
Another player who looked amazing last week who is showing up as a strong fade this week is Cowboys running back Tony Pollard. In fact, both Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott look like very strong fades, as they have some of the highest bust percentages on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The Jaguars matchup,as previously mentioned, is much easier for the passing game than the Cowboys run game, even though they rank seventh in run rate this season. With a defense that ranks 16th in run DVOA, it may be best for this loaded Cowboys offense to attack through the air this week.
Even though Pollard has 12 touchdowns compared to Elliott’s nine, this is still a 50-50 split backfield. Throughout the season, Elliott actually has played more snaps and has more carries, but Pollard has the edge in the passing game. Regardless, it is hard to decipher which running back to play, so it looks like the best bet this week is to fade them both. There are plenty more running backs on this slate worth getting exposure to and this salary on Pollard especially has gotten out of control. Don’t let a few good games with touchdown variance sway your decision to roster Pollard.
WR DeAndre Hopkins – Arizona Cardinals
DraftKings – $7,700; 64.3% Bust | FanDuel – $8,400; 56.1% Bust
Another wide receiver who is facing a very tough matchup this week is DeAndre Hopkins against Broncos standout cornerback Pat Surtain II. Not only is this a tough matchup for Hopkins, but the Cardinals will also be playing without quarterback Kyler Murray for the remainder of the season after tearing his ACL last week. Hopkins has been peppered with targets all season, but other than his first two games, he has yet to eclipse the 100-yard receiving bonus. He also has only one touchdown over the last four weeks, and the Cardinals are going to struggle to score in this matchup.
With a bust percentage well over 50% on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Hopkins looks like a very easy fade. The Cardinals have the third-lowest Top Stack rating on both sites, and they are implied for a slate-low 16.75 points. They only put up 13 points last week and Murray suffered his injury on the third snap of the game. The Cardinals are 3-point road underdogs, and this total is the lowest on the slate at 36.5 points. Hopkins will continue to see high volume, as the Cardinals are without Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz, but with the tough individual matchup and a backup quarterback, there is no need to get to Hopkins this week.
TE Cole Kmet – Chicago Bears
DraftKings – $4,000; 48.1% Bust | FanDuel – $5,300; 47.4% Bust
Once again, the tight end position is a total landmine after Travis Kelce. He has a 30.6% boom percentage on FanDuel and only one other player has higher than 5%. Is it possible to just fade all other tight ends on this slate? Dallas Goedert and Darren Waller are both expected to return from the IR, but their status is unknown for this weekend at this time. So instead, look down the list and fade Bears tight end Cole Kmet. After jumping onto the scene for back-to-back games with two touchdowns in weeks 9 and 10, Kmet hasn’t found the end zone since and has been very disappointing.
The Bears are much more reasonable on FanDuel, but they have the second-lowest Top Stack rating on DraftKings for the main slate. Kmet may be popular in Eagles stacks as a bring back, but taking any tight end outside of Kelce is truly a shot in the dark. Outside of those two weeks where he had two touchdowns in each game, Kmet has recorded double-digit DraftKings points just once in his 11 other games. The Bears lead the league in run rate this season, and they have an implied point total below 20 points and are 9-point home underdogs against the Eagles. No need for the bring back in Eagles stacks.
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