NFL DFS Stacks Week 15: Eagles Score Big Against Bears & More

The byes are now over and this slate has 10 games to pick from thanks to the expanded Saturday schedule. With cold weather also playing a factor we have a lot of lower Over/Under’s on the slate totals with the Chiefs (who are massive 14.0 point favorites against Houston) and Texans game having the highest total at 49.5. The Chiefs game also has the largest spread on the board and it’s worth noting that every other game this Sunday has a spread of +4.0/-4.0 or less, as of writing. That makes for a lot of small underdogs and even matchups this week, which could also mean lots of surprises in DFS.

While there’s a clear leader this week in the Stokastic Top Stack Tool we also have three or four teams right underneath the top that are projecting strongly, giving us a few options to consider for leverage purposes in larger fields. This article will use the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool to help identify both the top couple of teams in the overall projections and which lower owned teams may be good contrarian plays in larger fields. Let’s dive in to find the top opportunities for Week 15 based on where they stand in Stokastic’s NFL DFS ownership projections.

Bet $5 on the Super Bowl and get $200 instantly!

Top NFL DFS Stacks for Week 15 on DraftKings & FanDuel

Top Overall Week 15 DFS Stack: Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia takes on the Chicago Bears this week in a fantastic matchup for fantasy purposes. Chicago is last in overall defensive DVOA and second last against in defensive pass DVOA as well. They’ve allowed 7.8 yards per attempt against over the last three weeks and generally set up as a home run matchup for Jalen Hurts who continues to make a run at the MVP award – and now sits as the favorite at -165 on the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Hurts has accounted for 9 TDs and zero turnovers in his last three games and will also have another mobile quarterback in Justin Fields pushing the pace on the other side. Quarterbacks against the Bears have accounted for multiple TDs now in three of their last five games. Obviously, Hurts will be popular but the Stokastic Top Stacking Tool has the Eagles as the second highest projected stack for this week and ownership is expected to be spread over the top three quarterbacks.

Stacking Hurts with one or more of his receivers can also help you get your overall lineup ownership down this week. A.J. Brown’s salary — which is $8,000 flat on DraftKings — continues to make him a polarizing play but a great GPP target. Brown’s pure ceiling is second to none at WR and even though his every week floor is far worse than his peers the Bears secondary includes two players in Jaylen Johnson and Kindle Vildor who clock in at 6’0 feet or less in height and under 200 lbs. Brown’s in a bully spot once again and shouldn’t be overly popular, even as his quarterback pushes for the highest ownership at his position.

The Eagles should push for the highest scoring team on the slate and despite the popularity of Hurts, there will be easy avenues to stack them and get overall lower ownership on your lineups.

Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 12.0%

Stokastic Quarterback Ownership: 12.1%

Latest NFL DFS Content

Top Low-Owned Week 15 NFL DFS Stack: Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have passed for over 350-yards twice in their last three games. The one anomaly vs Detroit can likely be attributed to it being a bit of a letdown road game after beating the Ravens in spectacular fashion and Trevor Lawrence injuring his toe, in-game. Lawrence is still dealing with the toe issue but clearly the in-week management has helped, as evidenced by his game last week where he threw for 8.8 yards per carry and posted 36.42 DraftKings points.

The Jaguars have a perceived poor matchup with Dallas this week but the Stokastic projections and top Stacking Tool are telling us not to worry so much about the Cowboys. Jacksonville is still ranked in the the top-8 stacks in terms of top stack probability for the week and are only a percent or two behind the Cowboys. Using Lawrence in this game can also give us good leverage over Dak Prescott lineups as Prescott comes in projecting with 3% higher ownership.

As for how to stack with Lawrence, the Jaguars offer us plenty of good options and given the 47.5 game total (which has risen throughout the week) a double WR stack is certainly in play. Dallas has allowed the seventh-most yards to wide receivers over the last three games and gave up 10 catches and 124 yards to slot man Chris Moore against Houston in Week 14. Christian Kirk and his 23% team target share is a must roster in this spot and he’s projecting with under 10% ownership. Marvin Jones Jr. is always in play and has TD upside, but it’s also fine to simple eat the chalk and include Zay Jones who has 33 targets over his last four games. Using the cheaper Jones would also allow a comeback play from Dallas to be included in the likes of Tony Pollard or Cee Dee Lamb.

Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 6.4%

Stokastic Quarterback Ownership: 5.3%

Your first NFL bet is on Caesars up to $1,250

Top Tournament Leverage Week 15 NFL DFS Stack: Cincinnati Bengals

If we look at the Stokastic ownership projections this week we can see that people are gravitating towards the Buccaneers as a cheap DST play at just $2,600 on DraftKings. Why anyone would want to start a defense against Joe Burrow right now is a serious question we don’t have room to answer in this column but the higher ownership on the Bucs DST means we’ll be getting solid leverage when we use a Bengals stack in larger fields this week.

Despite his team having the fourth highest probability to end the week as the top stack (quarterback – receiver combo), Burrow only checks in with the fifth-highest ownership projection for the week at his position. While the Bengals can gravitate towards conservative game plans at times, Burrow is more than comfortable in shootouts and has now landed over 30.0 or more DraftKings points in four of his last eight games.

There’s also some interesting opportunity forming in terms of how we stack with Burrow. Both Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are listed as questionable for this game but there’s optimism that both men will be suiting up. Ja’Marr Chase will certainly carry ownership and his upside with Higgins out last week is hard to ignore as he was targeted on 15 of Burrow’s 33 pass attempts against Cleveland. With this game being a late start, leaving room to flex in one of Boyd or Higgins will likely get you a shot at very low ownership on players with legit slate breaking ability. If they’re out, Chase turns into somewhat of a must roster and also look for Trenton Irwin to potentially be a factor as a near min-priced punt play.

Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 7.8%

Stokastic Quarterback Ownership: 11.0%