NFL DFS Week 9 First Look: Target Players in High Total Game in Detroit

There are 10 NFL games on the schedule for this Sunday’s main slate. This NFL DFS first look article gives an early overview of the main slates on DraftKings and FanDuel and breaks down some of the best options at each position.

NFL First Look: Week 9 NFL DFS Picks

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Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray, ARI vs. SEA ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)

Murray has been far more efficient with DeAndre Hopkins back in action, averaging 7.2 yards per pass attempt over the past two starts with Hopkins. That’s compared to an underwhelming 5.8 yards per pass attempt in his first six starts of the season without Hopkins. Murray is coming off a season-best 29.64 DraftKings points against the Vikings and now draws a Seahawks’ defense that is allowing the seventh most yards per attempt (7). This NFC West matchup’s total is tied for the highest on the slate (50 points) and the Cardinals’ implied team total is the fourth largest on the board (25.75 points). Murray owns a career average of 25 DraftKings points per game when playing behind an implied team total of at least 25 points (26 games) and is very reasonably priced for his upside this weekend.

Jared Goff, DET vs. GB ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)

Goff is a steal this week on his home turf and competing in a contest that is tied for the highest total on the slate (50 points). He has been solid this season, ranking 11^th in yards per pass attempt (7.6) and sporting a 12-6 touchdown to interception ratio. Goff has been a particularly strong fantasy asset at home this season, scoring 25.4 DraftKings points per game per game in Detroit. That is a massive difference from the 9.4 DraftKings points per game he is averaging on the road. As 3-point underdogs, the Lions should be forced to rely on their passing attack, so Goff should supply a minimum of 20 fantasy points this Sunday.

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Running Backs

Aaron Jones, GB vs. DET ($7,400 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)

Jones has operated as the Packers’ featured back over the past two weeks, seeing 14 carries per game – which is 66.7% of the Packers running back carries – while playing 74% of the snaps. In addition to the expanded role as rusher, Jones has continued to see an immense role in the passing game, ranking third on the Packers in route rate (70%) and earning a target on a team-best 33% of those routes. He has produced 116.5 scrimmage yards per game and scored over 20 DraftKings points in both these starts. He now gets fantasy football’s ultimate matchup against the Lions. This Detroit defense is the worst graded unit on PFF. The Lions have yielded the fourth most yards per rush attempt (5.1) and most rushing touchdowns to running backs this season (10). The Packers’ implied team total ranks second on the slate (26.5 points) and they are 3-point favorites in this slate-high total against the Lions (50 points). This an eruption spot for Jones and he is an incredible target at these sub-$8,000 salaries.

Travis Etienne Jr., JAX vs. LV ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)

In Etienne’s first start since James Robinson was traded, the rookie logged 79% of the snaps this past Sunday and received a career-high 24 carries – including a jaw dropping six red zone attempts – which was 85.7% of the Jaguars’ running back carries against the Broncos. Etienne also ran a route on 57% of his team’s dropbacks and garnered a target on 15% of those routes. This season, Etienne ranks seventh in DraftKings points per touch among running backs (0.99) and he should absolutely destroy these price tags that in no way reflect his new role as the Jags’ featured back. While Las Vegas has limited their opponents to the fifth least yards per rush (4.1), their defense as a unit is the 10^th worst graded group on PFF. This tilt’s total ranks third on the slate (47.5 points) and Etienne is without a doubt the best running back value on the slate in this potential shootout.

Rhamondre Stevenson, NE vs. IND ($6,200 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)

Even with Damian Harris (hamstring) back in the mix, Stevenson remained the Patriots’ main back over the last two weeks, receiving 13.5 carries per game – including four red zone rushes – while playing 68.5% of the snaps. Stevenson has also seen tremendous usage as a receiver, running a route on 60% of his team’s dropbacks and garnering a target on 36% of those routes. Stevenson has topped 20 DraftKings points in five of his last six games and is the fifth-highest-graded running back on PFF this season. As a 5.5-point home favorite this Sunday against the Colts, Stevenson should be in line for 20-plus touches and while an excellent option on both sites, he is one of the best flex values on the board at only $6,200 on DraftKings. Stevenson has eclipsed 20 DraftKings points seven times in 10 games with over 50% of the snaps.

Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins, ARI vs. SEA ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel)

Stacking Murray and Hopkins is a no brainer this week. Since returning from his suspension, Hopkins has seen an absurd role over the past two weeks, leading the Cardinals with a 37.5% target share, including two red zone targets and three targets over 20 yards, while running a route on his team’s dropbacks. Hopkins is guaranteed to see double-digit targets in this projected shootout, and this is likely the cheapest he will be the rest of the season.

Terry McLaurin, WAS vs. MIN ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)

McLaurin has returned to being the Commanders’ alpha receiver with Taylor Heinicke under center. He’s leading the team with a 28.1% target share over the last two weeks, which ranks 10^th in the league over that time. He also has four targets north of 20 yards in that stretch. Overall, in the 17 games McLaurin has played with Heinicke getting the start at quarterback, he has seen an incredible 34 targets greater than 20 yards. Going against this Vikings’ defense that has surrendered the second most yards per pass attempt (7.7), McLaurin is an elite value play for all formats.

Romeo Doubs, GB vs. DET ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel)

Doubs is a worthwhile risk in this dream matchup against the Lions, who have allowed the most yards per pass attempt in the league (8.1). Ever since Randall Cobb (ankle) was placed on IR two weeks ago, Doubs has led the Packers’ receivers in target share (17.7%) and route rate (90%), including a red zone target and a pair of targets greater than 20 yards. As Aaron Rodgers’ top wideout in this slate high total (50 points) – which is also the largest total the Packers have competed in this season – Doubs brings a superb ceiling relative to his cheap price tags.

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts, ATL vs. LAC ($4,500 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)

With Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews off the slate, investing in an ascending Pitts makes a ton of sense this week. Pitts has led the Falcons with a 31.5% target share since returning from a one-game absence three weeks ago. Pitts has notably seen four red zone targets during this three-game stretch, two of which he has converted into touchdowns. This matchup with the Chargers boasts the second highest total on the slate (49.5 points) and the Falcons should be forced into a pass heavy gameplan as 3-point underdogs. Especially at only $4,500 on DraftKings, where players are rewarded a full point per reception, the reward massively outweighs the risk with Pitts.

Evan Engram, JAX vs. LV ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)

Engram is vastly underpriced for his role as the Jags’ featured right end and is in an outstanding spot this weekend. The Raiders are giving up the sixth most yards per pass attempt (7.2) and they have been specifically susceptible to tight ends, allowing the third most touchdowns to the position (6). This contest’s total is the third highest on the slate (47.5 points) and over the last four weeks, Engram has seen a target on 22% of his routes – including at least six targets in all four games – while running a route 84% of his team’s dropbacks. At these low salaries, Engram is arguably the best tight end value available for this slate.

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