Sunday’s NFL schedule presents a slate of 11 games. Using Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, each player is given a leverage score that is based on that player’s ownership and ceiling. A low projected ownership combined with a high ceiling means a higher leverage score. This column will dive into some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for the main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Week 7 NFL DFS Leverage Picks
Ezekiel Elliot
Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 4th, FanDuel: 3rd
While many Dallas Cowboys fans want Tony Pollard to see more work, the fact of the matter is that Elliot is still their top dog. Ranking seventh in the NFL in carries per game (15.6) — including four red zone attempts — Elliot has handled 63.1% of the Cowboys’ running backs carries this season and played 64% of the snaps, compared to Pollard, who has only logged 33.7% of the carries and played 40% of the snaps. Elliot’s usage as a receiver hasn’t been appealing, with eight targets thus far, but he has run a route on 52% of his team’s dropbacks, so positive regression is coming in that department. Nonetheless, Elliot’s high volume as a rusher isn’t reflected in his current price points and he should have a season-best performance this weekend against the Detroit Lions.
Detroit is the second worst graded defense by PFF. Specifically, the Lions have been very susceptible against the run, yielding the third most yards per rush (5.3) and the most rushing touchdowns to running backs (8). The Cowboys’ implied team total is the second highest on the slate in this dream spot (27.75 points) and they are 7-point home favorites. Elliot owns a career average of 20.3 DraftKings PPG when favored at home and is an outstanding leverage target for GPPs this Sunday, with his ownership projection hovering around 10% for both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections.
Terry McLaurin
Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 20th, FanDuel: 32nd
The news of Washington Redskins quarterback Carson Wentz (finger) being out this week is a blessing in disguise for McLaurin. The wide receiver has struggled mightily with Wentz this season, averaging only 11.7 DraftKings PPG with a 16.4% target share. However, with Sunday’s starter Taylor Heinicke as his quarterback last season, McLaurin saw tremendous usage. In the 15 games the receiver played with Heinicke starting at quarterback, McLaurin led Washington with a 25.2% target share, including eight red zone targets.
Heinicke also loved to utilize McLaurin deep, with the receiver garnering a jaw-dropping 30 targets over 20 yards in those 15 games together. McLaurin scored at least 24 DraftKings points in four of those games and brings similar upside this Sunday against a Green Bay Packers defense that has been a major disappointment, rating as the ninth worst graded unit by PFF. According to Stokastic’s projections, McLaurin is slated to come with a mouthwatering less than 3% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
David Njoku
Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 25th, FanDuel: 34th
Njoku is far too cheap for his role this season, and the Cleveland Browns tight end is a stellar cheap bring-back option for Lamar Jackson stacks. This season, Njoku has been targeted on 19% of his routes while running a route on 78% of his team’s dropbacks. QB Jacoby Brissett has especially looked Njoku’s way in scoring territory, with him ranking fourth among tight ends in red zone targets (7). From a fantasy perspective, Njoku has provided double-digit DraftKings points in three of six starts and ranks fourth among tight ends in DraftKings PPG (11). The Browns will be facing the Baltimore Ravens this Sunday, and as 6-point road underdogs, Cleveland should be forced to rely on its passing game, just like we saw last week.
Trailing the New England Patriots for essentially the entire game last Sunday, the Browns threw the ball at a 73% clip and Brissett finished with a season-high 45 pass attempts. This matchup with Baltimore carries the sixth highest total on the slate (45.5 points), and the Ravens have given up the third most touchdowns to tight ends this season (4). Njoku is a real threat for 20+ fantasy points this weekend and is slated for sub 5% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, making him an elite tournament play.
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