NFL DFS Week 7 Value Picks: Josh Jacobs, Ezekiel Elliott

The new NFL regular season is already a third of the way through and as team’s bye weeks begin, we look to capitalize on observations from this opening third of football. Combine Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections to analyze which plays are best point-per-dollar while utilizing the NFL DFS ownership projections to understand the leverage of these plays.

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Week 7 NFL DFS Picks & Value Plays

DraftKings Quarterback: Matt Ryan – $5,400

Again this week, there is a difficult decision at the quarterback position on DraftKings. Ten quarterbacks currently project for value scores above 3.0 with six of those gunslingers being priced below $6,000. Matt Ryan scores slightly under the value threshold set above at 2.95, but the game script and matchup should play heavily in his favor this week against the Tennessee Titans. Not to mention, Ryan is coming off his best showing of the season, producing 30.2 DraftKings points and finally going a full 60 minutes without a turnover. The Titans present a golden fantasy matchup for a quarterback as their defense ranks third in run DVOA but 29th in pass DVOA. They allow the second-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks (24.7), permitting 304.6 pass yards per game while surrendering nearly 2.5 passing touchdowns. The Colts are attempting 42.2 passes per game, second-most in the NFL, and while the deep ball hasn’t been as prominent, his deep ball completion percentage (53.8%) ranks fourth in the league. Stacking Ryan with Michael Pittman Jr. or Alec Pierce will be incredibly contrarian and is a great GPP-building foundation against this putrid Tennessee secondary.

FanDuel Quarterback: Lamar Jackson – $8,800

Speaking of golden matchups due to DVOA, Lamar Jackson gets the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland’s defense ranks 31st in total defensive DVOA, a product of their run DVOA (30th) and pass DVOA (27th). Simply put, the Browns have been mashed on the ground this season, allowing 131.5 rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per carry. Baltimore features the most dynamic rushing attack in the NFL and should be welcoming back their top receiver, Rashod Bateman, this week. This showdown holds the fourth-highest total (45.5) on the slate, but the Ravens defense has struggled this season and we’ve already mentioned the struggles for the Browns. Each offense ranks top 10 in points per game at 26.3 and 24.7, respectively. Lastly, Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens project as this week’s top stacking option. He’s due for a breakout game and this matchup seems like the perfect opportunity to get right.

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Running Back: Josh Jacobs – $6,500 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel

Many wrote Josh Jacobs off this spring following the Las Vegas Raiders declining his fifth-year option and then drafting Zamir White. Fast-forward to Week 7 and who would’ve thought Jacobs would be RB7 coming off of a bye? Las Vegas faces a Houston Texans run defense that has allowed more fantasy points per game to opposing running backs (31.6) than any other team in the league and ranks 29th in run DVOA. The production has come through both the ground (133.5 rushing yards per game) and by air (42.4 receiving yards per game) in addition to six total touchdowns by the position in five games. Jacobs has shown the ability to make plays out of the backfield in the passing game displayed by three straight games with five receptions. His snap share (74.6%) ranks fourth amongst backs and is trending upward with marks well above 80% in the past two games. With one of the best workloads in the NFL, Jacobs is evading tackles at the second-highest rate (12.0 p/g) in the league while creating the second-most yards per game (95.4). Despite all the above, Jacobs’ salary puts him as RB6 on FanDuel and RB11 on DraftKings, making him the most optimal play on both sites but carrying more leverage in the latter.

Running Back: Ezekiel Elliott – $6,000 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel

While the days of seeing Ezekiel Elliott carry the bell-cow title are fleeting or gone forever, his days of fantasy usefulness have not yet disappeared. His salary has hovered around the middle of his peers throughout the season but hasn’t adjusted to the matchup against the Detroit Lions. The theme this week appears to be DVOA and for good reason, given we’re already a third way through the regular season. Detroit ranks last in total defensive DVOA with a run DVOA ranked second to last and pass DVOA at the cellar of the league. Both Tony Pollard and Elliott are in play given the matchup, but Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections rank Elliott as the better optimal and leverage play. This matchup holds the highest game total (49.0) on the early slate and the second highest on the main slate. Elliott is a top-five leverage play and projects as one of the top point-per-dollar plays available.

Wide Receiver: Michael Pittman Jr. – $7,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel

Identified as this year’s best breakout receiver, Pittman has been hampered by a quadriceps injury and mediocre quarterback play through the first third of the season. Nevertheless, he ranks fifth in snap share (95.7%) at the position and has produced two WR5 outings with his Week 1 performance against Houston and just last week against Jacksonville. Those defenses rank 16th and 14th in pass DVOA, respectively, which are significantly better marks than Tennessee’s defense which ranks 29th. Alec Pierce and Parris Campbell are both viable in this matchup as the Titans have allowed 46.2 PPR points to wide receivers this season, the second-most in the league trailing only Pittsburgh. Pittman is the preferred play here, given he’s the only one seeing consistent target share despite all three seeing an increasing snap share over the past several weeks. This stack is extremely contrarian and may not project the best given the lower game total (42.0) and pace of offense, but the upside is immense.

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