Sunday Night Football brings the expected return of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa who has missed time with a concussion. Miami has dropped three straight after starting out the season 3-0. This is a get right spot against a Pittsburgh squad that has lost four of their last five matchups.
Heading into NFL Week 7 Sunday Night Football, Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all of the different slates, game formats and sites.
This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There is loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 7 Sunday Night Football slate featuring the Pittsburgh Steelers at the Miami Dolphins.
NFL DFS Picks: Week 7 Sunday Night Football
Pittsburgh will be without WR Steven Sims (hamstring) and CB Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) is doubtful. Both TE Pat Freiermuth and QB Kenny Pickett cleared the concussion protocol and are expected to start.
Miami has several defensive players who are dinged up with DB Kelon Crossen (knee) the least likely to play. Defensive linemen Emmanuel Ogbah (back), Zach Sleler (hand) and Christian Wilkins (hand) are questionable. In the back seven, linebacker Jerome Baker (hip) and defensive backs Kader Kohou (oblique) and Elijah Campbell (foot) are questionable as well.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 19.0 Points
Quarterback
The Stokastic fantasy projections have rookie Kenny Pickett projected right below Jimmy Garoppolo and Aaron Rodgers, and just above Mac Jones and Ryan Tannehill for Week 7. It is hard to get a read on Pickett who has just one complete game under his belt with two partial appearances, one in relief and last Sunday where he was forced to leave the game per the concussion protocol. The Steelers are road dogs in this matchup and it is realistic to expect Pickett to attempt north of 30 passes. DraftKings missed the mark by assigning him a $9,200 salary, though FanDuel was more aggressive listing him just $1,000 below Tua Tagovailoa.
Running Back
Miami has been stout against the run with the seventh best rushing DVOA according to Football Outsiders. They also have allowed the third fewest rushing yards to running backs and the 11th lowest yards per carry. On the flip side, the Dolphins have ceded eight rushing touchdowns, which is the fifth most in the league and several of their key defenders were dinged up last week.
Pittsburgh ranks with the second worst rushing rushing efficiency with the fourth lowest yards per carry. Most of this can be attributed to a patchwork offensive line and of course little to no respect from defenses for their quarterback carousel.
Najee Harris continues to be the lead option, though the second-year running back is starting to see his playing time erode as rookie Jaylen Warren works into the mix. Harris still has a comfortable lead when it comes to carries and targets, but this is no longer a one-man show. Fullback Derek Watt will be on the field for a handful of snaps, but he has only one offensive opportunity on the season.
Wide Receiver
Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool and rookie George Pickens have cemented themselves as the top three receivers. The rest of the wideouts are averaging 10 snaps combined each week and none of Gunner Olszeski, Miles Boykin or Steve Sims Jr. has seen offensive action in more than four games.
Johnson is the clear priority in the offense and he has double-digit targets in four of the six games thus far. Claypool has been steady with six or more opportunities in five games and Pickens has been right there with him, getting six or more targets himself in each of the last four games. Pickens is interesting on FanDuel where he is $3,000 and $2,500 less than Johnson and Claypool, respectively.
Tight End
Pat Freiermuth cleared the concussion protocol and he is expected to return to action after missing Week 6. The sophomore campaign has been a productive one for Freiermuth and he logged 10 or more fantasy points in three of his four games before being injured in Week 5. Even better, that is with half-PPR scoring and of course it is National Tight End Day, so the cosmos has aligned behind the former Penn State stalwart.
Defense/Special Teams
In their last five games, the Steelers have tallied a meager five sacks with four interceptions and one fumble recovery. This makes the Week 1 implosion of Joe Burrow that resulted in seven sacks and four picks a once in a blue moon phenomenon. Rookie Skylar Thompson was not sacked in his limited playing time, yet veteran Teddy Bridgewater was brought down five times last week by the Vikings.
Miami Dolphins: 26.5 Points
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa is slated to return after missing time with a concussion bruised brain. Football is a scary and brutal sport that takes a toll on its participants. There really is nothing particularly glamorous about it now that we are all aware of the incredibly high injury rate that was often obfuscated in the past.
Pittsburgh has the 17th passing DVOA and is allowing the third most passing yards per game. Tagovailoa has been up and down in his performances since being the fifth overall selection in the 2020 NFL Draft. The beginning of this season looked like it was a potential breakout year for the beleaguered signal-caller and hopefully he can continue that trajectory.
Running Back
In a bit of a twist this offseason, Raheem Mostert ended up earning an even role alongside Chase Edmonds who was brought in on a two-year $12 million deal (with an out after this year of course, because NFL contracts are mostly smoke-and-mirrors). Mostert continued to ascend and over the last three games he has outsnapped Edmonds by 28, 36 and 17 plays. Of course this could flip at any time and both backs are capable runners and receivers.
Edmonds has one more target than Mostert (15 to 14), while Mostert has 40 more carries. Everything comes down to touchdowns and Edmonds still holds serve three to one. Fullback Alec Ingold will be on the field for around one-third of the plays, but he has averaged just two offensive opportunities per game this season.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill has been impressive as usual and in his first season outside of Kansas City, he is leading the league with 116.8 receiving yards per game. He is tied for second with 65 targets and first with 11 plays of 20 or more yards. Jaylen Waddle has been stellar as well ranking fifth in the league with 88.8 yards per game and boasting eight plays of 20 or more yards himself. This is impressive considering that Miami has been forced to play three different quarterbacks through the first half dozen games.
Trent Sherfield is the third wideout and he has 17 targets on the season with at 12 in the last three games. Cedrick Wilson and River Cracraft will at least be on the field, but they have combined for only two targets per tilt.
Tight End
Mike Gesicki popped up on the fantasy radar last Sunday with two touchdowns accompanied by a season high seven targets for six receptions and 69 yards, all of which were season bests. The role for Gesicki has evolved with a new coaching staff and he is not getting as many opportunities to work out of the slot or line up on the outside. Tread lightly in this matchup as the Steelers have yet to allow a double-digit fantasy point outing to opposing tight ends.
Two of Durham Smythe, Hunter Long and Tanner Conner will serve as second tight end with one of them likely being inactive. Smythe missed last week with a hamstring injury, but he is expected to suit up for Sunday Night Football.
Defense/Special Teams
Pittsburgh is allowing just over two sacks per game along with 1.5 turnovers. Miami has only four takeaways which is the second fewest in the league and the defense is recording two sacks per tilt.
Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups, and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their quarterback.
Week 7 Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings
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Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Tyreek Hill:Â Rightfully carrying the largest salary cap hit on both DraftKings ($11,200) and FanDuel ($16,000).
- Tua Tagovailoa:Â Hopefully he can pick up with his breakout season after those brutal hits.
- Jaylen Waddle:Â Continuing his stellar trajectory.
- Diontae Johnson:Â Better on FanDuel where he is just $500 more than Claypool.
- Chase Claypool and George Pickens: Complete steal on DraftKings with their 20% discount from Johnson.
- Kenny Pickett:Â This is a top heavy list that is just about to drop off dramatically.
- Miami D/ST:Â Facing a rookie quarterback appearing in just his fourth game.
- Jason Sanders:Â League average kicker, but his team should be in field goal range at a minimum on most drives.
- Pat Freiermuth:Â Inexperienced quarterbacks go to their tight ends at an above average rate.
- Chris Boswell:Â Five of six from beyond 50 yards this season and he has converted 14 of his last 16 from that range.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Raheem Mostert:Â Gets first crack at the Miami rushing attempts, but hard to trust at this salary with Edmonds waiting in the wings. Also returns kickoffs.
- Najee Harris:Â Topped 56 rushing yards only once, should be good for a couple of receptions, but this is a gaudy salary.
- Chase Edmonds:Â One misstep by Mostert will open the door for the former Cardinal to swoop in.
- Jaylen Warren:Â Rookie has had flashes, but team still goes to Harris first. Viable “cash game” option on DraftKings at $2,800 where fortune favors the bold.
- Pittsburgh D/ST:Â Likely to get a handful of sacks and turnovers, but also will lose fantasy production as Miami puts points on the board.
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Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Mike Gesicki:Â How the mighty have fallen under the new coaching philosophy.
- Trent Sherfield:Â Could go overlooked by the defense with Hill and Waddle drawing the spotlight, we just need one broken play or busted coverage for him to convert.
- Durham Smythe:Â Lotto ticket on DraftKings at ($1,200) and FanDuel ($5,500), plus it is National Tight End Day.
- Alec Ingold: Too bad there is no holiday for fullbacks.
- Cedrick Wilson, River Cracraft and Zach Gentry:Â Likely will collectively see five targets, good luck figuring out which player gets more than one.
- Gunner Olszewski:Â Will return both punts and kickoffs with Sims out, long shot for any offensive snaps.
- Tanner Conner, Conner Heyward, Derek Watt, Teddy Bridgewater and Mitch Trubisky: Hard pass.
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