The NFL playoffs begin this weekend with the 12-team, six-game Wild Card Round, highlighted by three games Sunday. Using Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, each player is given a leverage score that is based on that player’s ownership and ceiling. A low projected ownership combined with a high ceiling means a higher leverage score. This column will dive into some of the top NFL DFS leverage plays for Sunday’s three-game slate for Wild Card Weekend on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Wild Card NFL DFS Leverage Plays and NFL DFS Optimizer
Kirk Cousins
Stokastic NFL DFS Leverage Plays and Score Ranks: DraftKings: 15th, FanDuel: 18th
For this three-game slate, the general consensus at quarterback is to either pay up for Josh Allen or pay down for Daniel Jones. This is leaving Cousins with low expected ownership according to Stokastic’s projections, making him an excellent target for GPPs. The Minnesota Vikings get the best matchup of this slate, hosting the New York Giants, who are the third worst graded defense by Pro Football Focus. Minnesota’s implied team total is the second highest on the slate (25.75 points), and this game total is the largest on the board by five points (48.5).
This season, Cousins averaged 7.1 yards per attempt and was fifth in passing touchdowns (29). At home in the dome of U.S. Bank Stadium, he has been 5.5 DraftKings PPG better than when on the road this season. Specifically, Cousins has produced 25.5 DraftKings points when playing behind an implied team total of at least 25 points on his home turf this season (five games), including 24.2 DraftKings points against the Giants three weeks ago. Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson each topped 30 DraftKings points in that win, and double stacking the two pass catchers with Cousins this weekend is a contrarian strategy that could really pay off.
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Isaiah Hodgins
Stokastic NFL DFS Leverage Plays and Score Ranks: DraftKings: 10th, FanDuel: 26th
Hodgins is far too cheap for his role, and the Giants wide receiver is a great bring back option for Vikings stacks or a player to stack with Jones. In his 10 games this season, Hodgins has been targeted on 18% of his routes while running a route on 73% of dropbacks. Hodgins has seen elite usage in scoring territory, with 10 red zone targets. He has scored a touchdown in four consecutive games, and this is an outstanding spot for him, with the Vikings yielding the third most yards per pass (7.3).
With 15.2 DraftKings PPG, Hodgins ranks sixth among the receivers on this slate in DraftKings points since Week 13 but is only the 11th most expensive wideout on DraftKings. In the Stokastic projections, Hodgins is hovering around 20% expected ownership, which is relativity low for a three-game slate.
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Tee Higgins
Stokastic NFL DFS Leverage Plays and Score Ranks: DraftKings: 10th, FanDuel: 26th
Slated for sub 20% ownership according to the Stokastic projections, this is a great time to buy low on Higgins, especially on DraftKings, where his salary has plummeted to $6,200, which is the cheapest the Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver has been since Week 5. He ranked second on the Bengals in target share this season (21%), including a team-high 18 targets over 20 yards and 10 red zone targets.
Higgins did not practice Wednesday because of illness but is expected to be fine for this Sunday Night game. He ranks 14th in DraftKings points per snap among receivers this season (0.31) and has scored a touchdown four times in his last five starts. Hosting the Baltimore Ravens this Sunday, Cincinnati carries the third highest implied team total on the slate (24.5 points) and is an 8.5-point favorite. When the Bengals have been favored this season, Higgins has responded with 17 DraftKings PPG (13 games), including four efforts over 20 DraftKings points.
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