It is a large 11-game slate in the NHL this evening, providing NHL DFS players a wide breadth of options for Stokastic’s NHL DFS picks. There are several high-end players in good home matchups like Auston Matthews and St. Louis, Aleksander Barkov and Arizona, Filip Forsberg and Montreal, and Leon Draisaitl and Seattle. That makes an interesting docket where a lot of different teams are in play. As always, Stokastic subscribers should check the members-only Discord for lineup/injury information.
21+ and present in OH. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER
NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
Center
Connor McDavid (EDM vs. SEA): DraftKings – $9,400 | FanDuel – $10,800
Of all the top-tier offensive performances in the NHL, Connor McDavid stands above the rest. His 72 points in 38 games leads the league by 15 points, and those 72 points would have seen him finish top 50 in the league a year ago – there’s still over a half season remaining. Over half of those points (37 of 72) have come on the power play as he and his teammates have displayed utter dominance with the man advantage.
That elite power play will come in handy for the home matchup against Seattle. The Kraken have killed fewer than 69% of their penalties on the season, allowing the second-most goals per minute in the league. Things have not improved as the season has worn on as they rank 31st by goals allowed per minute while down a man since Thanksgiving, a span of 16 games. They do not take many penalties but are utterly inept at killing the ones they do take.
There are a number of elite offensive options in good matchups across the slate, and McDavid is no exception. Being split from Leon Draisaitl at even strength means that McDavid can be used as a one-off option, but stacking him with at least linemate Zach Hyman for tournaments is very viable as well.
Tim Stutzle (OTT vs. CBJ): DraftKings – $6,200 | FanDuel – $7,400
In the five games since returning from injury, Tim Stutzle has four goals and 6 points, managing 17 shots on goal. He has skated over 20 minutes in each game, and going back to before his injury, he has skated at least 19 minutes in 12 straight games (the injured game excepted). He has 13 points in those 12 games, averaging 3.5 shots per outing.
Columbus being in town gives the top Ottawa center a fantastic matchup. The Blue Jackets are giving up the second-most shots and goals per minute on the season and while those numbers have improved marginally of late, they are still 29th by shots allowed and 25th by goals allowed since December 1st. Stutzle’s line is generating over 4.0 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five and once the shooting percentage regresses positively – currently 6.5% – they will start filling the net. This matchup presents a good opportunity for that to begin.
The correlation that Stutzle has with winger Brady Tkachuk at all offensive strengths means this duo can be used for NHL DFS tournaments this evening. With the success of the Ottawa power play, there are a number of ways to stack Stutzle with Ottawa’s top offensive stars.
Winger
Matthew Tkachuk (FLA vs. ARI): DraftKings – $7,600 | FanDuel – $9,300
In the 18 games leading up to Thanksgiving, Matthew Tkachuk had 27 points and 83 shots on goal, averaging 1.5 points and 4.6 shots per game. In the 17 since, he has 16 points and 45 shots, averaging 0.94 points and 2.65 shots per game. The downturn of late has been noticeable and not a small stretch either.
All of that said, that recent 17-game stretch has still seen five performances with at least 19 DraftKings points. Further to that, he has been moved alongside Aleksander Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe, and that trio has been electric for the Panthers: 5.2 expected goals and 5.0 actual goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. They are facing an Arizona team giving up the seventh-most shots and fifth-most goals per minute since the beginning of December. The Coyotes are also the most penalized team in the league while the Panthers are drawing the fourth-most power plays per game. Tkachuk and Barkov should get their chances with the man advantage.
Given the correlation between Tkachuk and his center, rostering them as a duo stack is in play. The Florida top line has positive leverage, per Stokastic’s Top Stacks tool, which is another checkmark in their direction.
Latest NHL DFS Content
- DraftKings Fantasy Hockey Cheat Sheet: The Best NHL DFS Stacks Today | Zach Hyman and the Oilers (May 1)
- NHL DFS Picks Today: William Nylander Value! (April 30)
- NHL DFS Picks Today: Time to Stack the Maple Leafs (April 27)
- NHL DFS Picks Today: Nathan MacKinnon Smoking the Field (April 26)
- NHL DFS Picks Today: Money Making Matthew Tkachuk (April 23)
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Mitch Marner (TOR vs. STL): DraftKings – $6,300 | FanDuel – $7,500
St. Louis is in Toronto for tonight’s game, and the former recently suffered significant injuries: both Vladimir Tarasenko and Ryan O’Reilly are going to be out for several weeks. Add that to already missing three defensemen and the Blues, who rank 26th by goals against per minute, are going to be in very tough visiting one of the top offensive teams in the league.
Realistically, there are a lot of options to use from the Toronto side in this matchup. Mitch Marner has been priced down a bit, however, reaching his cheapest price on DraftKings in four weeks. Since Thanksgiving, a span of 16 games, Marner has averaged 3.3 shots per game, a huge increase from the 2.1 shots per game he managed prior to the holiday. His big production problem of late has been a lack of power play points, with just 5 of 18 points in those 16 games coming on the man advantage. St. Louis is one of the least penalized teams in the league, but they also rank 26th by goals against per minute. This is a good matchup for Marner and the Leafs power play.
Stokastic projections have Marner returning just over 2.0 DraftKings points per $1,000 and 2.15 FanDuel points per $1,000. That is good value, and he can be used either by himself or with some kind of line stack.
Nino Niederreiter (NSH vs. MTL): DraftKings – $3,800 | FanDuel – $4,700
Offseason signee Nino Niederreiter has formed an unlikely, yet successful, duo with Cody Glass, as Nashville is generating 3.6 expected goals and 3.5 actual goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five with them on the ice. In nine games since skating together, Niederreiter has 5 points and is averaging nearly three shots per game. He also skated just under 20 minutes in his last appearance as Nashville lost in overtime to Vegas.
Montreal is in town tonight and they are a fantastic matchup for Nashville. Since Thanksgiving, the visitors are allowing the fifth-most shots and third-most goals against per minute. With Nashville mixing up their power play units of late, Niederreiter is getting consistent secondary time, and Montreal is giving up the fifth-most power plays per game to the opponent.
Among all wingers priced under $4,000 on DraftKings and $5,000 on FanDuel, Nino is second by Stokastic projections. All the members of his even-strength line also skate with him on the power play, giving them perfect correlation, and thus they can be used as a cheap stack. Just beware of high-ish ownership as Stokastic’s Top Stacks tool has them with negative leverage, meaning more ownership than top-2 stack probability.
Defense
Noah Dobson (NYI at VAN): DraftKings – $6,400 | FanDuel – $5,900
One thing Noah Dobson does well is bring fantasy value across the board: he and Buffalo’s Rasmus Dahlin are the only blue liners with at least 10 goals, 10 assists, 100 shots and 50 blocks. His assist totals are low with just 14 in 38 games but there’s a bit of bad luck going on: his first two full seasons saw him register a point on 71.4% of power play goals scored with him on the ice, a number that sits at 50% this season. That should regress positively and increase his assist rate along with it.
The Islanders visit the Canucks tonight and the latter has the worst penalty kill in the league by both percentage and goals against per minute. Dobson is carrying the seventh-highest defense projection on FanDuel tonight despite being priced outside the top 12, giving him good value on that site. There is less value on DraftKings where he’s relatively more expensive, but a strong matchup keeps him in play for tournaments.
Dmitry Orlov (WSH vs. BUF): DraftKings – $4,700 | FanDuel – $4,900
With John Carlson missing from the lineup, Dmitry Orlov has seen some heavy minutes of late, averaging nearly 24 minutes in his last three games. That is even skewed by a game where he skated a little over 20 minutes in a 9-2 blowout against Montreal. He has failed to register a point in those three games but skating so many minutes is part of what is leading to his strong projection: second highest on DraftKings for any blue liner priced under $5,000.
Buffalo is in town tonight and while they’re very good offensively, leading the NHL in goals per minute, they’re also 22nd by goals against per minute. It presents a good matchup for the Capitals and that, with Orlov’s expected minutes, is what brings the rearguard into focus for NHL DFS players tonight. He can be used either by himself or some type of Washington stack in tournaments.
21+ and present in OH. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER
Goalie
Jake Oettinger (DAL at LA): DraftKings – $7,800 | FanDuel – $8,400
There are 22 starting goalies tonight and Jake Oettinger ranks sixth by Stokastic’s projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has a reasonable cost on the former and has the highest projection for any goalie priced $8,000 or less on DraftKings. Stokastic’s GoalieStats section has Oettinger with the fourth-most saves on the slate, trailing only Karel Vejmelka, Joonas Korpisalo and Connor Hellebuyck.
Dallas is in Los Angeles tonight and the Kings have been struggling to score at five-on-five for a while now: their 18 games since Thanksgiving have seen them 20th in goals per minute, trailing teams like St. Louis and Arizona. For all these reasons, Oettinger ranks as the fourth-best value on DraftKings tonight, bringing him in play for tournaments. There is less value on FanDuel where he’s more expensive but he’s still a fine option.
For a cheaper goalie on FanDuel, Anton Forsberg (OTT, $6,700) has a fantastic matchup at home and is priced at a near-minimum dollar amount.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
DAL1: Hintz-Robertson-Pavelski
The Stars visiting the Kings tonight means a focus on the Los Angeles penalty kill. On the season, the home team is tied for 28th in the league in penalty kill percentage, and over their last 18 games since Thanksgiving, they are giving up the fourth-most goals per minute when down a man. Conversely, the top Dallas power play unit is scoring 18.2 goals per 60 minutes with the man advantage. For comparison’s sake, the top Edmonton power play unit is scoring 15.8 goals per 60 minutes. The Stars are beyond elite on the power play and get a good matchup with the Kings.
On DraftKings, Stokastic’s Top Stacks tool has this trio with the third-highest leverage, and it makes sense when considering all the top-end lines that have good home matchups tonight. That leverage also leads the way over on FanDuel where they are relatively more expensive. Those NHL DFS players looking to avoid the higher-owned lines from Toronto or Florida should look at Dallas for this slate.
MTL1: Suzuki-Dach-Caufield
To offer up an option that will not come in with much ownership, Kirby Dach has been moved back to Montreal’s top line. That trio has scored 4.3 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five this year, an excellent offensive number. The way they create scoring chances can lead to poor performances as they rely heavily on precision puck movement and this is still a rebuilding team, but there is always good upside as long as the three are skating together.
While Montreal is a poor defensive team, Nashville’s deficiencies should not be overlooked. They are 25th by expected goals against at five-on-five this season, ranking 27th since the Thanksgiving holiday. Great goaltending has made this team look better than they are and relying on goaltending every night is not conducive to long-term success. The Top Stacks tool has this Montreal three-man unit under 1% ownership on both sites, giving them good leverage, and thus they are viable in tournaments as a mid-priced stack this evening.
Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!
