It is a large 11-game slate in the NHL tonight, giving us a wide breadth of options to pick from. Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid, and Matthew Tkachuk are all on the road and that can be a little worrisome from an NHL DFS perspective given typical home/road splits. We are going to go through both high-end and cheap options across both DraftKings and FanDuel, and Stokastic subscribers should check our members-only Discord through the day as there will be a lot of injury/lineup news.
Let’s dig in.
NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
Center
Nathan MacKinnon (COL at BUF): DraftKings – $9,200 | FanDuel – $10,300
It has been an odd season from a production perspective for Nathan MacKinnon. He has 28 points in 20 games, which represents a career-best points/game mark thus far. The pivot has just six goals in 20 games, though, shooting 5.6%. His goals/game mark is a six-year low as a result, so a lot of his value is coming from assists, which aren’t his calling card. The wrinkle here is he’s managing a surreal shots/game mark of 5.4. He is third in the league in shots per minute but skates anywhere from 20-25 minutes every night. MacKinnon has managed a shot bonus on DraftKings in 60% of his contests.
Colorado is in Buffalo tonight and the Sabres are playing their second game in as many nights, meaning a backup goalie in net and not Craig Anderson. Over the last month, the Sabres are bottom-10 in the league in most shot metrics at 5-on-5 and at-or-near that mark on the penalty kill. This is a great matchup for MacKinnon and his line mates.
Ownership shouldn’t be an issue and MacKinnon is a bit of shooting percentage regression away from a goal-scoring streak. He is a high-end one-off option as he leads all our projections tonight but can be used in a line stack for DFS players looking to pay up.
Elias Lindholm (CGY vs. MTL): DraftKings – $5,100 | FanDuel – $6,600
Calgary’s top center has gone five straight games without a point, but Elias Lindholm is still skating nearly 19 minutes in that span and is over two shots per game. He had managed 16 points in 17 games before that so there is offensive upside here, players just have hot/cold streaks through the season.
It is the matchup against Montreal that draws us. The team hasn’t been bad at 5-on-5 lately, sitting in the middle of the league by expected goals against at 5-on-5 in the month of November. The penalty kill, however, gave up the second-most shots per minute with only St. Louis being worse. Great goaltending, at times, kept Montreal’s goals against marks average rather than awful and as we often say, teams can’t rely on great goaltending every night. It is a good matchup for a Calgary team whose top power play is scoring nearly 10 goals per 60 minutes.
How to use Lindholm in tournaments is another issue. Having Jonathan Huberdeau, one of the top playmakers in hockey, on his wing at all offensive strengths means he should at least be used in some sort of duo. Regardless, at their prices in this matchup, Lindholm and his line mates should draw our attention.
Winger
Kirill Kaprizov (MIN vs. EDM): DraftKings – $8,000 | FanDuel – $9,900
Kirill Kaprizov had a great month of November with seven goals and 16 points in 12 games, landing 4.7 shots per game. What is even more special about that is the team scored just 2.1 goals per 60 minutes with him on the ice at 5-on-5. Top-end offensive lines are usually over 3.0 so there is clearly a lot more he can give, and he’s still very productive despite that low even-strength goal rate.
Like Lindholm above, it is the matchup that draws us here. Edmonton played last night in Chicago with Stuart Skinner in goal, meaning it’s Jack Campbell’s turn. He has been arguably the worst goalie in the NHL over the last calendar year by several metrics, including high-danger save percentage at 5-on-5 and in all situations. He has had good games, as all goalies can, but it’s been a while since he’s been consistently acceptable. Edmonton is also giving up the second-most power plays per game to the opponent, with only Arizona giving up more.
Kaprizov is a top option for us as he leads both our DraftKings and FanDuel projections for wingers tonight. He should be given a lot of attention when considering lineups.
Joe Pavelski (DAL vs. ANA): DraftKings – $5,400 | FanDuel – $8,000
A lot of the press goes to his line mates, and rightfully so, but Joe Pavelski is over a point per game on the season with 10 goals and 24 points in 23 games. Where ice time was a concern earlier in the season, he’s skating 18 minutes per contest over the last three weeks. That average is a level of TOI he didn’t reach in any single game through his first 13 games of the campaign.
Pavelski skates on arguably the best offensive line at all strengths in the league. At 5-on-5, his trio generates over 3.5 expected and 5.3 actual goals per 60 minutes. With the man advantage, they generate nearly 95 shots and 18 goals per 60 minutes. They create a lot, they score a lot, and the results speak to their upside.
Anaheim being in town tonight gives this Stars team a great matchup – the Ducks finished the month of November giving up the most expected goals and shots against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Overall, only Buffalo gave up more goals per minute.
Given the correlation with his line mates, a full-line stack here makes sense, just watch for high ownership rates. Pavelski can be used as a one-off at his reasonable price, though.
For a cheaper FanDuel option, DFS players should consider Kevin Fiala (LAK, $7,000). Los Angeles is at home to an Arizona team that has improved but is still not good defensively and Fiala leads our wing projections for players priced under $7,500 on FD.
T.J. Oshie (WSH at SEA): DraftKings – $3,700 | FanDuel – $5,500
With four points in four games since returning from injury, it has been a successful resurgence for T.J. Oshie in the short term. One issue has been consistent ice time as he’s skated both over 18 minutes and under 15 minutes in those contests, but he’s not carrying a heavy price and that fluctuation can be a good thing for DFS tournament players.
Seattle’s last few games have shown the big flaw in this team: goaltending. While Martin Jones had a nice run, he has recently shown why he hasn’t had a save percentage over .900 in five seasons now, allowing 17 goals in his last three starts. This problem pervades not only Jones but their entire goaltending situation, which is good news for Oshie.
The winger’s impact on the power play is important, too. This year, Washington’s top PP unit is generating a whopping 46% more shot attempts with him than without, with vastly improved goal scoring. Seattle’s penalty kill has been fine but again, the goaltending remains the issue.
At his price, Oshie is perfectly fine as a salary-saving wing option for tournaments tonight. Using him with top Washington options like Alex Ovechkin or John Carlson is acceptable as well.
Defense
Aaron Ekblad (FLA at VAN): DraftKings – $6,200 | FanDuel – $7,400
It has been nine games since Aaron Ekblad returned from injury and in that time, he has posted three goals, nine points, 31 shots, and 17 blocks. His ice time has averaged nearly 25 minutes a night in that span as the team leans on him heavily.
Vancouver was better in November than October, record-wise, but a lot of it was their offensive stars finding their game. Defensively, they were 29th in the league by shots and expected goals against at 5-on-5, ranking 25th by goals against. The penalty kill improved but was still bottom-5 in the league in goals allowed per minute. This is not a good defensive team, and the Panthers play a very high-tempo game. It should give Ekblad lots of time to rack up peripherals like shots and blocks. At his reasonable price, Ekblad is one of the value leaders for expensive defensemen on both sites per our projections.
Ryan Graves (NJD vs. NSH): DraftKings – $3,400 | FanDuel – $5,200
John Marino might miss this game for New Jersey and that could mean more minutes for the top Devils blue liners, Ryan Graves included. That is good news with Nashville in town as the Predators were 21st by shots allowed at 5-on-5 in the month of November, worse than teams like Arizona and Montreal. Graves trailed only Dougie Hamilton in shots per minute at 5-on-5 among New Jersey defensemen in November, so it is a decent night for him to rack up some peripherals for cheap.
Graves is one of seven defensemen priced under $3,500 on DK tonight that we have projected for over 7.0 DK fantasy points. He is perfectly acceptable as a one-off, salary-saving blue liner for DFS tournaments players.
If Marino does play – and early indications are he may – Graves is still fine to use. However, MacKenzie Weegar (CGY, $3,800) is in a very good spot at home to Montreal and leads our DK defense projections for blue liners priced under $4,000.
For a cheaper option on FanDuel, Weegar ($4,300) is again in play but so is Cam Fowler (ANA, $4,900) who is among our defense leaders by projection for players priced under $5,000.
Goalie
Jordan Binnington (STL vs. CAR): DraftKings – $7,100 | FanDuel – $7,300
It isn’t Jordan Binnington’s performance this season that draws us here but rather the matchup. Carolina is one of the shot-happiest teams at 5-on-5 in the NHL as they generated the fourth-most shot attempts and sixth-most shots per minute over the last month. The percentages have dried up, though, as they had the worst shooting percentage in the league in that span. Carolina is relying on a few stars for scoring as Andrei Svechnikov, Martin Necas, and Sebastian Aho scored over half the team’s 5-on-5 goals last month. If they can be shut down, Binnington can post a very good DFS score.
Even at his low price, this combination of shot volume and lack of scoring has Binnington sixth among the 22 goalies in projected DraftKings points and eighth on FanDuel. This provides a good value opportunity, and he is one of the top low-cost options on the board.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
NJD1: Bratt-Hischier-Tatar
This line has been excellent since being assembled, generating 86 shot attempts per 60 minutes in their limited time together. There is a much larger sample of Nico Hischier and Tomas Tatar being superb together, generating 3.5 expected goals and 4.0 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, and adding Jesper Bratt will not hurt the offense.
Tonight, Nashville is in town and their top line has not been good, allowing 3.5 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 and controlling less than 45% of the expected goal share. Hischier’s line should get the run of play and two of the three forwards are on the top power-play unit. Our Top Stacks tool has them with positive leverage on both sites tonight, so this trio is a very good, low-owned option on this docket.
SEA3: Gourde-Tanev-Bjorkstrand
When Seattle is at home, they use the Yanni Gourde line frequently against the opposing second line. Tonight, that means Evgeny Kuznetsov, and his line has been very leaky defensively with Sonny Milano: 3.5 expected goals against and 3.7 actual goals against per 60 minutes. This Seattle triumvirate has not been good defensively, either, but they have scored 2.9 goals per 60 minutes with an average rate of expected goals for. These lines should trade chances all game long and this Kraken trio is very cheap across the industry. Full stacking the line isn’t necessary but going with duo stacks using any two of the three forwards is a salary-saving option to get to expensive options like Colorado, Edmonton, or Florida.
*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick
