There are 10 games on the NHL DFS docket tonight and there are loads of superstar options to pick from; Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid, Alex Ovechkin and Cale Makar are all featured. There is also the return of Max Pacioretty and Jack Eichel as well. For that reason, Stokastic subscribers are encouraged to check in with the members-only Discord for lineup and injury information throughout the day.
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NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
Center
Nathan MacKinnon (COL at VAN): DraftKings – $9,000 | FanDuel – $10,200
The Colorado Avalanche getting Nathan MacKinnon back in the lineup is huge for a number of reasons, not the least of which is his power play impact. This season, Colorado’s top power play unit generates 33% more shots and 200% more goals when MacKinnon is in the lineup than when he is out. A lot of the goal increase is due to shooting percentage differences, but the shot increase alone is very notable and gives an added dimension to the fantasy profiles of all their top offensive stars.
Going into Vancouver brings the Colorado power play into focus. Vancouver’s penalty kill percentage is 67.6%, last in the league, ranking in the bottom-5 in goals against per minute since Thanksgiving. A poor penalty kill against a power play scoring at an elite rate moves the needle heavily in the favor of MacKinnon and the Avalanche.
That, among other reasons, is why MacKinnon leads all players – not just centers – in Stokastic NHL DFS projections tonight for both DraftKings and FanDuel. His heavy shot volume of over 5.0 per game means that MacKinnon can be used as a one-off in any format, but linemate correlation at all strengths brings his trio into play for tournament stacking.
J.T. Miller (VAN vs. COL): DraftKings – $5,100 | FanDuel – $6,500
On other side of the Colorado game is a Vancouver team that is on a bit of a slide, going 4-6 in their last 10 games. In that span, however, J.T. Miller has 34 shots on goal, a big jump in his volume that he’s not normally known for. If he can maintain anywhere close to that shot rate, it gives him another layer of utility in the fantasy game.
The two keys for Miller in this game are his linemates and the power play. He was skating with Elias Pettersson and Andrei Kuzmenko in practice, and that’s a great spot to be: that duo has helped Vancouver generate 3.3 expected goals and 4.9 actual goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, fantastic offensive marks. Miller also faces a Colorado penalty kill that ranks 22nd in goals against per minute, which gives a very good Vancouver power play a positive home matchup.
If Miller can keep up the shooting, he would be a viable one-off at his price, and he carries a top-5 center projection for those priced under $6,000 on DraftKings and $7,000 on FanDuel. The correlation with his linemates on the power play, though, brings that entire Vancouver line into play for tournaments this evening.
Winger
Andrei Svechnikov (CAR vs. NSH): DraftKings – $6,400 | FanDuel – $7,400
It has been 11 games since Andrei Svechnikov was moved to Paul Stastny’s wing and in those 11 games, he has 39 shots on goal, or a little over 3.5 shots per game. It is a great sign for the scoring winger as his 10 games prior to that had seen just 23 shots on goal, or 2.3 per game. That rise in shots means he’s averaging over 11 DraftKings pts/game in that 11-game span even if he’s posted just 7 points. Shot volume means some level of security in the NHL DFS game, particularly on DraftKings.
Nashville has quietly been among the worst defensive teams in the NHL this season. They rank 24th by expected goals against at five-on-five, worse than teams like Edmonton, Buffalo and Detroit. They also rank 27th by shots against on the penalty kill. Their goaltending is the only reason they are in the middle of the league by goals against per minute. It is a good matchup at all strengths for Svechnikov and the Hurricanes. Just watch for line combinations at warmup as Max Pacioretty is set to return for Carolina.
Among all wingers on DraftKings priced under $7,000, Svechnikov is sixth by projected points, coming in at ninth on FanDuel for flanks under $8,000. He can be used as a one-off or part of a line stack.
Chris Kreider (NYR at MTL): DraftKings: $6,000 | FanDuel – $6,600
Chris Kreider was reunited with his old linemates a couple games ago and that is likely a good move for the Rangers: alongside Mika Zibanejad and Kaapo Kakko, the New York top trio generates nearly 4.0 expected goals and 3.0 actual goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. That is despite shooting just 7.4%; Zibanejad and Kreider had an on-ice shooting percentage of 9.3% in the prior two seasons. An improvement in Kreider’s own shooting percentage this season has seen him score 10 goals in his last 20 games.
Going into Montreal is a big part of the appeal for New York and Kreider on this slate. Montreal is giving up the fifth-most shots and the fourth-most goals per minute this year, and the most goals per minute since Thanksgiving. Their penalty kill has been as bad as the aforementioned Canucks and that gives Kreider a good matchup at all offensive strengths.
The Rangers’ left winger is carrying a top-5 projection among all flanks, regardless of cost, on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight because of this matchup with Montreal. A high projection and reasonable cost means he, too, can be used as a one-off but using him in some sort of stack with Zibanejad or the rest of the Rangers’ power play is a better tournament option.
James van Riemsdyk (PHI vs. ARI): DraftKings – $4,900 | FanDuel – $6,200
Despite some injuries, James van Riemsdyk has been productive for Philadelphia this season with 15 points in 18 games. In his 10 games since returning from injury, he has 10 points and has managed 29 shots on target. His ice time has seen a decline of late, down to 16:40 per contest in his last five outings, and that is a bit of a concern. However, Arizona being in town brings a specific matchup that is difficult to ignore.
On the season, the Coyotes are the most penalized team in the league, giving up 3.9 power plays to the opponent (league average is about 3.25). They are also giving up the fifth-most shots and third-most goals per minute when down a man, so not only do they take a lot of penalties, they struggle mightily to kill them off. It gives the Philadelphia power play and van Riemsdyk a tremendous special teams matchup.
The winger skates with Morgan Frost both at even strength and on the power play, so using them in a duo is perfectly acceptable. Just beware that a good matchup and cheap prices could drive a lot of ownership in this direction.
NHL DFS players looking for a cheaper wing option on FanDuel, consider T.J. Oshie (WSH, $4,900) who leads Stokastic’s flank NHL DFS projections for those priced under $5,000 at his position.
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Defense
Darnell Nurse (EDM vs. NYI): DraftKings – $5,200 | FanDuel – $6,100
Though he doesn’t run the team’s power play, Darnell Nurse has out-performed defensemen who do run their team’s top power play on fantasy points/game basis, at least on DraftKings, namely Justin Faulk, Tony DeAngelo, Shayne Gostisbehere, and Charlie McAvoy (though he’s been moved on and off since returning from injury). Nurse is also cheaper than all of them on DraftKings tonight. His peripheral performance – five DraftKings shot bonuses and 14 DraftKings block bonuses in 39 contests – is why he’s performing so well in the fantasy realm this season.
The Oilers are hosting the Islanders and though Edmonton’s power play is virtually matchup-proof, it also isn’t the best spot for them: New York is giving up the eighth-fewest power plays and fourth-fewest goals per minute on the season. Nurse has the ninth-highest projection among blue liners on DraftKings tonight, but is priced 15th, and that gives him good value. He is still playable on FanDuel but is more fair value than good value tonight.
On FanDuel, consider DeAngelo (PHI, $6,400) as it is a fantastic power play matchup for the Flyers, as mentioned in the section on van Riemsdyk, and that gives the defenseman good value on FanDuel this evening.
Nicolas Hague (VGK vs. PIT): DraftKings – $3,200 | FanDuel – $4,300
With Shea Theodore, Zach Whitecloud and Alec Martinez all missing from the lineup, Nicolas Hague has had to play a lot more per game lately: at least 20 minutes in five straight contests, averaging nearly 23:30 per night. He had just four total games in his first 34 appearances exceeding 20 minutes of time on ice. In these recent five tilts, he has 2 points, 10 shots and nine blocks. That isn’t tremendous production, but it is very good for a low price tonight.
Stokastic defense projections have Hague leading the way for rearguards priced under $4,000 on DraftKings, making him one of the top values on the slate at any position. He is relatively more expensive on FanDuel but is still a very good value so he can be used on any site in any format for those looking to save a bit of salary on the blue line.
Goalie
Juuse Saros (NSH at CAR): DraftKings – $6,900 | FanDuel – $8,100
The Stokastic GoalieStats section has Juuse Saros leading the way in projected saves tonight at nearly 30.7. Going into Carolina means facing one of the most shot-happy teams in the league as the Hurricanes rank first by shot attempts and third by shots on goal per minute at five-on-five this season. They haven’t scored at a commensurate rate, however, ranking ninth by goals per minute at the same strength. It means there are some games where the Hurricanes are dominant but the opposing goaltender can still put up very good fantasy performances. For example, during Carolina’s 16-game regulation loss-less streak, Chicago’s Petr Mrazek gave up three goals in a shutout loss but managed nearly 25 DraftKings points, Detroit’s Ville Husso managed 14.7 DraftKings points saving 26 of 27 in a shutout loss, while New Jersey’s MacKenzie Blackwood gave up four goals in a shootout loss but had 21.1 DraftKings points because of the shot volume he faced. Hockey has a lot of variance and it doesn’t happen every contest, but goalies facing Carolina can perform very well even in defeat, or even if they give up three or four goals.
Projections tonight have Saros down the list because he could get blown up in a road matchup as an underdog, but he also has the highest projection of any goalie priced $7,200 or less on DraftKings because of the volume he could face. That makes him a tournament target this evening.
His price is more prohibitive on FanDuel, but Darcy Kuemper (WSH, $7,800) has a strong projection and value for his cost on that site.
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VAN2: Pettersson-Kuzmenko-Miller
The move of Miller to Pettersson’s wing presents some interesting options for this slate. Both Miller and Pettersson are listed as centers on both sites and stacking a double center is something that can lead to unique lineup construction.
More importantly, all three players line up together on the power play. The top Vancouver power play unit with Kuzmenko is generating 10.5 goals per 60 minutes and that is a very good offensive number. Conversely, the Colorado penalty kill has struggled all season long. They are much more expensive on FanDuel than DraftKings, relatively speaking, so they’ll be much lower owned on FanDuel, but they’re in play on both sites given the power play correlation and special team matchup.
PHI1: Frost-Tippett-van Riemsdyk
With Arizona in town, the first note should be that ownership will gravitate towards Philadelphia given their reasonable prices and superb matchup. They are $13,300 as a trio on DraftKings and $16,600 on FanDuel.
However, this line for the Flyers has been excellent this season, generating 2.9 expected goals and 4.6 actual goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. On top of that, both Frost and van Riemsdyk are on the top power play unit and the Coyotes have an awful penalty kill. For that reason, inserting players like Travis Konecny or DeAngelo, turning this into a power play stack, is acceptable as well.
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