NHL DFS Picks Today & Stacks: Auston Matthews Leads Chalky But High-Powered Maple Leafs Stack (October 12)

The 2022-23 NHL season is finally here. After last night’s two-game slate, there is a more packed night of hockey featuring six games on Wednesday.

Let’s examine the best Captain and Flex plays for the season opener on the DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS slate today. Of course, be sure to check Stokastic’s NHL DFS rankings and NHL DFS projections.

NHL DFS Picks for DraftKings

Center

Sebastian Aho (CAR vs. CBJ): $6,200

The Hurricanes top line (Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis) is a strong stack against the Blue Jackets. While a ton of offseason hype surrounded the Blue Jackets because of their acquisition of forward Johnny Gaudreau, they did nothing to address their defense other than the addition of Erik Gudbranson, who is an offensive-minded defenseman.

At five-on-five, Columbus ranked just 31st in the league in goals against and 32nd in expected goals against last year. This team features a ton of offensive-minded players between both the forwards and the defensemen.

Since Brad Larsen took over as the Blue Jackets head coach, this team has focused primarily on scoring while dismissing the back end, which is evident by their passive defensive style. Because of its passive style, Columbus surrendered a ton of shots on goal last season, especially against the Hurricanes. Across the four games that these two teams played last season, Carolina averaged 40.8 shots on goal per game. With this volume, the Hurricanes top line is a must-stack on Wednesday.

Between his four games against Columbus last season, Sebastian Aho recorded a goal, an assist and 10 shots on goal. Serving as the playmaker for this dangerous first line, expect Aho to find the scoresheet in some capacity.

Auston Matthews (TOR at MTL): $8,400

There is no doubt that Toronto’s top line (Bunting – Matthews – Marner) will be a popular stack and that Auston Matthews will be one of the highest-owned players on the slate.

However, this matchup is too enticing to pass up, regardless of the ownership. Montreal is starting the season with a potentially disastrous blue line, as they are throwing out four rookie defensemen alongside David Savard and Chris Wideman.

At five-on-five last season, the Canadiens finished 28th in the league in goals against. Projected to guard the crease for the Habs is Jake Allen. Last year, he went 9-20-4 with a .905 save percentage and a 3.30 goals against average.

A 60-goal scorer last season, Matthews was almost always a must-play in cash games, regardless of ownership. Between his last two games against Montreal, Matthews has recorded three goals and 12 shots on goal.

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Winger

Seth Jarvis (CAR vs. CBJ): $3,500

A great value play at this price, Seth Jarvis is part of the Carolina stack. In an extremely impressive rookie campaign, Jarvis registered 40 points across 68 games last season. The main reason for this tremendous year, outside of his talent, was coach Rod Brind’Amour’s trust in him to play wing on the first line alongside Teravainen and Aho. This line clicked immediately, resulting in plenty of high-danger scoring chances for all three of these players.

Across his three games against the Blue Jackets last season, Jarvis recorded two assists and three shots on goal.

Teuvo Teravainen (CAR vs. CBJ): $6,200

An almost point-per-game player, Teuvo Teravainen ended last season with 65 of them over 77 games. Across his four games against Columbus, Teravainen registered a goal, an assist and 14 shots on goal. There are many different directions to go with this game because of the volume of shots Carolina is likely to register.

However, not only is Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis their best line, but they also all appear on Carolina’s first power play unit. Last season, the Hurricanes ranked 13th in the league in power play percentage, while the Blue Jackets ranked just 20th in penalty kill.

Michael Bunting (TOR at MTL): $5,300

Like Jarvis, Bunting had an excellent rookie campaign. Over 79 games, he recorded 63 points. Now, an obviously large part of this production is the fact that he skated alongside Matthews and Mitch Marner. But for DFS, it does not matter how the sausage is made as long as the production is there.

Across his four games against Montreal last season, Bunting produced three assists and nine shots on goal. If Matthews scores, which is likely, then Bunting’s name is sure to be attached via a primary or secondary assist.

Mitch Marner (TOR at MTL): $6,900

Serving as the primary playmaker of the Leafs top line, Marner has developed tremendous chemistry with Matthews and usually sets up the bulk of his scoring. Last year, he finished with 97 points over 72 games. While he recorded 62 assists, Marner is also always a threat to score, as he logged 35 goals.

Yes, Marner sets up Matthews a ton, but the play is also reciprocated, as both guys are generational talents in the offensive zone. Across his four games against the Habs last season, Marner logged four assists and a whopping 19 shots on goal. At under $7,000, he is the best play on the board tonight.

Defensemen

Tyson Barrie (EDM vs. VAN): $3,700

From here on out, this is where to separate from the chalk. The Leafs stack will be one of the two highest-owned stacks on the slate (alongside the Oilers top guys), while the Hurricanes stack will also be in the higher-owned portion.

In this tilt between the Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks, the top six forwards on Edmonton will all be utilized heavily in different combinations. However, people will likely overlook their blue line, including Tyson Barrie.

An offensively minded defenseman, Barrie is typically a strong play in regard to DFS. Last season, he logged 41 points over 73 games. Additionally, he skates with the first power play unit and fires a ton of point shots, which is a dangerous combination considering Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are also with that group. Across his three games against Vancouver last season, Barrie recorded a goal and four shots on goal.

Brett Kulak (EDM vs. VAN): $2,600

For a mini-stack, and pair Barrie with his defensive partner Brett Kulak. Kulak may not contribute much, but the rest of the lineup and his cheap $2,600 salary help offset that.

If he can just get a couple of blocked shots or a couple of shots on net, that should be more than enough to make this play worth it. Additionally, he or Barrie could get a cheap secondary or primary assist if they are both on the ice for a scoring play.

Although he only played 18 games with Edmonton last season after getting health from Montreal, he found the score sheet multiple times as he logged two goals and six assists. In his one game with the Oilers against Vancouver last season, he recorded a goal on two shots.

Goaltender

Thatcher Demko (VAN at EDM): $7,200

One of the best methods in DFS, this is a play to create separation from others. The majority of the public will not play a goaltender against skaters they are also stacking, and there is a lot of potential value that people overlook in doing so.

Edmonton likely will dictate the pace of this game and generate plenty of shots on net. First of all, it is always ideal to have a goaltender that is expected to face a high volume of shots. With a goaltender accruing a bunch of points from saves, it offsets the points he will lose by surrendering a couple of goals. While a perfect world would have a goaltender get a shutout, that happens too infrequently to predict.

This game could have the best of both worlds. Say Vancouver pulls off the upset and wins by 4-3 despite being outshot. That would mean that Thatcher Demko gets the points for the win, the points for all those saves and is only deducted for three goals. It also means that Barrie and Kulak could combine for a decent number of shots and maybe even a point or two.

The play is sort like a middle, with a big cash opportunity between the two sides. If Edmonton railroads Vancouver, then there will likely be a lot of points from Kulak/Barrie. If Vancouver shuts out Edmonton, then there will likely be a ton of points from Demko.

If the result is somewhere in between, there is good value in all three in a low-owned combination of players. Last season, Demko finished sixth amongst starting goaltenders in five-on-five goals saved per 60 above expected while also posting a .915 save percentage and a 2.72 goals against average.

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