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Best MLB Bets Today (5/26): Baseball Prop Betting Picks

Mark Kieffer



Tonight features a solid and interesting 10-game slate for a Thursday night for a change. Often, there are more day games, but it is later in the season with Memorial Day weekend and warmer summertime weather coming, which means more night games on a weeknight. The games feature some of the best pitchers in the league, such as Aaron NolaEric Lauer and Frankie Montas. There are also some that have struggled this season like German Marquez, Patrick Corbin and Dallas Keuchel. Lastly, some pitchers are going that have surprised the fans like Martin Perez, Michael Wacha and Nestor Cortes. OddsShopper can help find all of the best MLB betting picks and get helpful tips when it comes to making MLB predictions for today, Thursday, May 26th. Up next, one will find two strikeout props, one total base prop and one home run prop for the best MLB prop bets today.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Dallas Keuchel O/U 2.5 K’s (Claim FREE $200 on BetMGM)

Dallas Keuchel takes on the Boston Red Sox in Chicago tonight and has not pitched well this season. His strikeout rate (10.7%) is the lowest it has been since his first season in 2012 (10.1%) and his walk rate (12.1%) is the highest it has ever been. He has allowed 1.2 HR/9, up from his career mark of 0.94 HR/9, along with a career-high xFIP of 5.25. The Red Sox have the ninth-lowest strikeout rate in baseball (21.2%), have scored the 10th most runs and have the 11th highest ISO. Awesemo’s model gives Keuchel a 51% chance of going under the 2.5 strikeout total, while the sportsbooks are offering +140 on the under.

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Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Dallas Keuchel UNDER 2.5 Strikeouts (+140)

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Ryan Yarbrough O/U 3.5 K’s (Claim FREE $200 on BetMGM)

Ryan Yarbrough will pitch to the second-best offense in the American League, the New York Yankees. He has the highest xFIP he has ever had at 5.28 (4.43 in his career) and while his HR/9 is just 0.60, he is allowing the most hard contact of his career, with a 34% hard-hit percentage (27.2% in his career). His strikeout rate has diminished as well over the years from a career-best 20.8% in 2019, to 18.8% in 2020, 17.9% in 2021 and now 16.8% in 2022. On the flip side, the Yankees have the 18th-highest strikeout rate at 21.9% — not a team to target for strikeout props. In fact, with Giancarlo Stanton out of the lineup along with his 28% strikeout rate, the Yankees strikeout rate as a team may actually go down. D.J. LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo and Gleyber Torres all hit left-handed pitchers well, while Aaron Hicks has hit left-handed pitchers better than right-handed pitchers this year, despite his struggles. Awesemo’s model gives the under a 61% expected win rate with a 22% expected ROI.

 Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Ryan Yarbrough UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (-101)

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Shohei Ohtani O/U 0.5 Home Runs (Claim FREE $200 on BetMGM

Shohei Ohtani takes the mound tonight and will also be in the batter’s box tonight against Hyun-Jin Ryu. Ryu has allowed 1.5 HR/9 and a 48.4% hard-hit rate, which is the highest of his career. While Ohtani does hit right-handed pitchers better, he has hit three of his nine home runs this season against left-handed pitching. OddsShopper gives Ohtani a 21% chance of hitting a home run while the +550 odds set by the sportsbook imply a 15.4% chance of hitting a home run. The over has a 37% expected ROI and is the best over home run prop of the night.

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Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Shohei Ohtani OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+550)

C.J. Cron O/U 1.5 Total Bases (Claim FREE $200 on BetMGM)

The Rockies face Patrick Corbin away from Coors Field in Washington. The last few seasons have been ones to target Corbin for MLB prop bets, as he has a 4.45 xFIP, has allowed 1.24 HR/9, a 10.3% barrel rate and a 47.6% hard-hit rate. The barrel rate and hard-hit rate are career-worst, as his career barrel rate is 7.4% and his career hard-hit rate is 38.6%. This season, C.J. Cron has hit left-handed pitching well with a .421 wOBA and .366 ISO. He is averaging 2.34 total bases per game and finds himself in a good spot against a below-average starting pitcher tonight.

Best MLB Prop Bet Today: C.J. Cron OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+105)

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