Tom Brady and the Buccaneers head to the Caesars Superdome to wage war with Alvin Kamara and the New Orleans Saints on Sunday afternoon. With the new Awesemo NFL Player Props Tool, bettors can now search player props by team and immediately pinpoint the best available odds at recognized sportsbooks. Let’s take a look at the tool’s projections and odds for Week 8 Sunday NFL Football to lock in the best NFL prop bets on Brady and Kamara.
Tom Brady + Alvin Kamara Week 8 Sunday NFL Player Props
Kamara Over 56.5 Yards Rushing (+100, Caesars)
Kamara has been the dominant focal point of the Saints offense this season and the NFL Player Props Tool insinuates no differently against the Bucs on Sunday. Through six games Kamara is averaging 69.8 rushing yards per game and the props tool gives a 61% expected win rate to the over. Despite the notorious Tampa rush defense Kamara is projected for 59.01 rushing yards against the Buccaneers while the props tool projects the over a suggested 22% return on investment.
The Buccaneers defense is ranked sixth in defensive rush DVOA and allows a stifling 51.28 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs as second overall in the category. Kamara accounts for 53.2% of the Saints’ run-first offense (rushing 52.9% of plays from scrimmage) and has rushed for over 70 yards in four games this season. With Jason Pierre-Paul and Lavonte David both questionable the Bucs may have voids to fill which Kamara could exploit given the workload. On a lower rush total at even-money odds, lock in the over for Kamara.
Brady Under 309.5 Passing Yards (+100, PointsBet)
It may be a difficult sell to bet against Brady but the NFL Player Props Tool may have the incentive based on projections and odds. Brady is having the best year of his 20-year career with 325 passing yards per game while the props tool gives a 60% expected win rate to the under. With Brady projected for 287.92 passing yards against the Saints the props tool projects the under with a suggested 19% return on investment.
The Saints defense ranks sixth overall in defensive pass DVOA this season, surrendering 265.5 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks with a 59.9% completion rate allowed for third-lowest in the league. Brady will be without Antonio Brown and may also be without Rob Gronkowski once again, which is at least worth noting. Last week against the Bears, Brady carved apart the Chicago secondary for four touchdowns yet only threw for 211 passing yards. At even-money odds and favorable props tool projections, take the under for Brady’s passing yards on the road and cross your fingers.
Brady Under 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-145, Caesars)
Brady has been on fire at the rip age of 44 years young, while the NFL Player Props Tool suggests that his red zone passing productivity may tame slightly against the Saints on Sunday. The GOAT is averaging three passing touchdowns per game this season yet the props tool paves a 60% expected win rate to the under. As Brady is projected for 2.17 passing touchdowns on Sunday against the Saints, the props tool projects a 1% return on investment for the lofty -145 odds.
The Saints defense has allowed an impressive 1.0 passing touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks this season, with an opposing quarterback rating of 71.9 for the second-best in the league. We’ve witnessed both extremes in quarterback play from Brady against the Saints on the road, and each as recent as last season. Considering the undesirable house juice stapled to the under on a more-than-achievable passing prop for Brady, in addition to the meager ROI projected by the props tool, it may be best to fade this line entirely.
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