The Florida swing rolls on, and the PGA Tour arrives at the self-proclaimed fifth major with The Players Championship. A schedule change that was enacted before 2019’s event changed The Players from a May calendar date to early March, and now it takes center stage. I personally like the layout since each month having one marquee event, and The Players brings together the strongest full field that we will see all season. Last year the Players completed Round 1 before cancelling the tournament due to the COVID situation and the golf season taking a brief pause. This year it’s all systems go, and we have a ton to break down in daily fantasy with gigantic prize pools up for grabs. Let’s get right into the top PGA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups this week.
The Course
TPC Sawgrass is the host for The Players Championship and is one of the more famous Pete Dye layouts in the world. Golfers will be facing a par 72 measuring just under 7,200 yards, so distance is not going to be an issue this week. However, the water will be, most notably the island green on 17 that has become known for the major blowups that we see from a few players every year. This is a course where a few holes can completely wipe out your entire week, so expect to see some high numbers posted. That type of variance is also going to lead to spotty course history, which we will talk about in a bit.
On the positive side, if golfers can keep out of the drink, the course is gettable and the four par 5’s are where the players are going to look to score. There is also a drivable par 4 with a risk/reward angle, as water is in play on that hole. Experience here is a plus, and we want guys who are precise with their irons and are able to avoid the water and blowups that can derail any round. Greens are Bermuda, so guys who prefer that surface or are used to Florida conditions are at an obvious advantage. We have had a few weeks in Florida, so we have a handful of rounds to gauge where players are before they tee off here. In terms of some key factors, here are a few I am looking to this week:
Shots Gained on Approach – With this being somewhat of a second-short course, I will be targeting players who excel with their irons and can give themselves plenty of birdie chances. This has been a common theme in Florida, with the rewards off the tee not being good enough to assume some of the risks.
Scrambling – I will factor this in more if it is windy, as that will lead to fewer greens hit and more scrambling opportunities. With the number of bunkers here, it’s not unreasonable to look at sand saves as well, but that is somewhat incorporated into scrambling or shots gained around the green.
Birdie-or-Better Percentage/Bogey Avoidance – Both are always important, but I will emphasize birdie-or-better percentage if it seems like ideal scoring conditions and bogey avoidance if the conditions seem like they will be difficult. Right now I am leaning birdie-or-better percentage because weather looks fine and the course should give players an opportunity to go low. The last few weeks in Florida have produced carnage in terms of scoring, and I doubt we will see scoring conditions that difficult here at Sawgrass.
The course has Bermuda greens that should be quick if you are looking for putting angles, but that is more of a secondary factor/tiebreaker for me this week. In March the grass can be overseeded, and regardless, putting splits have a lot of variance and noise within them.
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The Players Championship Field
There is a gigantic 154-man field littered with the best players in the world, so this is like a major on steroids. With majors we either get smaller fields or a handful of players who aren’t PGA Tour regulars, and that makes the lower ranges very difficult to roster. Here we truly have the deepest field of the season, and that makes lineup construction that much more flexible this week. World No. 1 Dustin Johnson kicks off pricing, followed by Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele to round out the $10,000 options. One other note is that Brooks Koepka has already withdrawn with a knee injury, so that removes one of the main guy’s up top.
Naturally, with a field this strong, we have talent well into the mid-ranges and the Players has shown anybody can win this event. Course history shows a jumbled mix of top-tier talents, random journeymen and everything in between. With the talent pool this deep, the ability to go stars-and-scrubs is elevated, but the balanced build is more bang for your buck here than anywhere else. That’s a long-winded way of saying all lineup constructions are in play this week, and that will lead to a lot of different builds.
What to do with course history and course fit at TPC Sawgrass?
This topic comes up a lot, as the debate with course history is always on people’s minds. More and more people have transitioned to look beyond the results and more to the actual fit of a golfer at a course. The idea is if you can figure out what type of skillset is needed at a given course. At TPC Sawgrass we have a bit of a problem, as the course has proven to cater to all different types of players. Furthermore, the water causes massively high variance, which results in some top-end players missing cuts due to a few errant shots in the first two days.
There is no formula to go off of when looking at past performance. McIlroy won in 2019, but he can win anywhere. Then Webb Simpson, Si Woo Kim, Jason Day and Rickie Fowler were the winners dating back to 2015. Some of them are iron/putting specialists and prefer these technical layouts, but the guys around them are heavy drivers of the ball and others with completely opposite styles. That speaks to the nature of Sawgrass, as it doesn’t punish more finesse players while still giving aggressive drivers four par 5’s to feast on.
All in all, it’s a mixed bag, and that means we can incorporate a lot of different types of golfers whether they seem to fit this place or not. That doesn’t mean play whoever you want, but do not be afraid to take a guy who has struggled in some of his Sawgrass appearances. If anyone plays enough at this course, chances are a few shots will cost them a cut or two over the years, which can blur and create false narratives about how guys can deal with the course.
One final note is that last year only one round was completed before the tournament was called off due to COVID. That means that 2019 was the last time this event took place and the only time the March date was used. It is very difficult to decipher what this means, if anything, but keep that in mind when looking over the past few years of data.
PGA DFS Picks: The Players Championship
Top Priced: Jon Rahm $10,900 DraftKings, $11,700 FanDuel
When there is a field of this caliber, the truth is almost everyone at the top is firmly in play in all formats. There are slight edges within ownership or other things that can separate these guys at times, but if any bring their top game, they will contend. I think there are opportunities to double up north of $10,000, but if I had to take just one guy, it would be Jon Rahm.
This season Rahm has been steady but not flashy, going 5-for-5 in cuts made with three top-10 finishes. The negative is his best finish was a fifth at the Genesis, and for a guy this good, that is a disappointment. All of his stats are fine, with at least 4 strokes gained tee to green in every start this season. He contended here in 2019, and if it were not for a questionable-at-best decision late in the tournament, he easily could be the defending champ. Rahm should take apart these par 5’s and has everything he needs to get around Sawgrass. He is my preferred target up top and will be my starting point on a lot of teams.
Also considering – Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay
Mid-Range: Paul Casey $8,400 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
The $8,000 range is a weird one, with three quality Englishmen and then Jordan Spieth just sitting there. All have merit in some capacity, but Paul Casey stands out as a guy who checks a lot of boxes this week. He is a winner in 2021 on the European Tour over in Dubai and has shown consistent form regardless of where he is playing. Last week he finished 10th at the Arnold Palmer and once again leaned on the irons to get it done (5 strokes gained on approach). If Casey can make a few putts, which is a big if, he should be primed for a big showing here.
His course history is checkered at best, as Casey seems to struggle on the greens and with the hazards at Sawgrass. Although that isn’t ideal, it is part of the territory when dealing with The Players Championship, and I love where Casey game seems to be.
Also considering – Tyrrell Hatton, Louie Oosthuizen
Lower Priced: Emiliano Grillo $6,700 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
If anyone is a frequent reader of this article, they know I am a huge Grillo fan. Unfortunately, lately I have had to reign in the exposure, as his game wasn’t in good shape and I didn’t love the course fit. However, Grillo responded with a quality showing last week at Arnold Palmer, gaining 4.3 strokes tee to green and going positive with the putter for a change. That’s a huge benefit for a guy who strikes it this well and could serve as a catalyst for a positive result here.
Grillo makes sense at Sawgrass, as he is a great iron player who can lean on his ball striking. Scrambling has been and still is a major issue in his game, but if the wind isn’t a major factor, that can be mitigated. The harder the course plays the worse off we are, but I think there are opportunities to go to Grillo in this spot. His price is more than reasonable at sub $7,000, and if we are just asking him to find the weekend, I feel confident he can do that.
Also Considering – Kevin Kisner, Charley Hoffman
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