PGA DFS Fades & Pivots Arnold Palmer Invitational: Cameron Young

While it has been moved around the schedule a couple of times, the Arnold Palmer Invitational is an integral part of the Florida swing and gives the top players another chance to chase big money. As a result of the added prize purse, the field this week is also much more elite, with 44 of the world’s top 50 golfers in attendance. The field only comprises 120 players, so expect 6-for-6 rates in larger PGA DFS tournaments on DraftKings to be fairly decent.

Below are some of the top PGA DFS fades and pivots for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy lineups. Stokastic’s expert PGA DFS projections and rankings can help identify the best picks for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

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PGA DFS Golf Fades & Pivots | Arnold Palmer Invitational

Bay Hill plays as a traditional par 72 with four par 5’s. This venue is long, but driving distance typically rates under the tour average. Greens-in-regulation percentages are also low, and the winners at Bay Hill tend to be up in strokes gained on approach and greens in regulation. Last year’s winner, Scottie Scheffler, gained over eight strokes on approach alone and came in with solid form from earlier in the season.

Bay Hill Stats and Info

Bay Hill typically presents players with lots of long approaches on long par 4’s and par 5’s. Shots over 200 yards are the most popular approaches the players will face this week.
The fairways are easy to hit, but driving distance is typically still 5 to 7 yards lower than the tour average due to the 70-plus bunkers and water in play on over half the holes.
Six of the last seven winners of this event all had recorded a top-five finish at Bay Hill in a previous year before winning, making course history something to weigh more considerably this week as well.
Past winners and top finishers have gained more strokes on approach than any other metric at Bay Hill.

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational DFS Golf Fades and Pivots

High-End Fade: Jason Day

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 24.2% | FanDuel: 14.7%

Day is projecting very strongly this week, but his price point on DraftKings has created a huge desire to build DFS lineups around him, as he has posted three top-10 finishes in a row. It is not that Day does not offer decent enough value at just $8,500, but there are a few concerns. He lost strokes on approach in his last start and gained most of his strokes with his putter at Riviera. The greens this week change back to Bermuda, so if ever is going to be a slowdown from Day in that regard, it will be this week.

Bay Hill is also a highly variable course, so golfers will find water at various points if their irons aren’t working. Considering the high-variance nature of the course, it’s also a good week to avoid the highly owned values under $9,000. Day is a solid fade for leverage purposes in large fields.

High-End Pivot: Cameron Young

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 7.3% | FanDuel: 13.1%

Young is just $200 more expensive than Day but carries about a third of the ownership in Stokastic’s PGA DFS ownership projections.That alone is enough reason to use him as a pivot in this range, and he has some good indicators going for him as well. The 20th place he grabbed at Riviera came on the back of a very solid long game, as he gained over seven strokes ball striking alone around the tough venue. He finished top 20 at Bay Hill last season and projects right under Day in the scoring projections this week as well. Young is looking like he is rounding into form at just the right time and makes for a proper large-field pivot with his lower PGA DFS ownership projections.

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High-End Fade: Patrick Cantlay

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 19.8%| FanDuel: 19.3%

Cantlay will be playing in the Arnold Palmer for the first time in his career. That does not mean he cannot have success right off the bat, but it’s worth noting that he has struggled in Florida and none of his eight career wins have come in the state. Cantlay is coming off a big week at Riviera where he closed with a great final round and grabbed a solo third. It seems like his ownership will be extremely high as a result of both his great recent play and his $9,100 price on DraftKings.

While he has solid PGA DFS projections, Cantlay’s ownership is pushing toward 20%, which is a lot for a player who doesn’t have the greatest record in the wind or in this state. There are plenty of options in this range, and many are coming in with far lower PGA DFS ownership projections at this time, so staying away here is likely the play. Cantlay’s a great player, but his win probability seems likely to be less or on par with some of the players ranked below him in salary.

High-End Pivot: Viktor Hovland

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 10.6% | FanDuel: 15.6%

Hovland is the natural pivot in this range and comes in $100 cheaper than Cantlay to boot. He didn’t play poorly at Riviera — gaining over three strokes on approach — but his around-the-green game is still a work in progress. He has been far better in that area of his game at Bay Hill, where he finished second last season, one stroke behind Scheffler. Hovland’s immaculate driving means he will avoid trouble off the tee on most holes, and while he may not scramble well, his iron play has been heating up — a great sign given the top finishers at Bay Hill tend to gain most of their strokes off the tee. Hovland has played extremely well in Florida over his career, racking up three runner-up finishes. Hovering around 10% owned in the PGA DFS ownership projections, he is an ideal pivot off the chalky Cantlay.

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Mid-Range Fade: Seamus Power

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 16.8% | FanDuel: 10.8%

The $7,000 range in an elite field like this requires careful consideration of ownership and pivoting off chalky golfers. Power has had a nice run over the last couple of seasons, but he is pushing 15% owned and certainly is a player whose skillset can be matched by others in this range. Power’s solid week at Riviera where he finished 14th will have the field looking his way at the Arnold Palmer, but it’s also worth noting that he missed the cut badly at this event last season and only ranks 116th in strokes gained on approach. Those numbers alone make him an easy fade at these PGA DFS ownership projections.

Mid-Range Pivot: Aaron Wise

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 6.8% | FanDuel: 4.4%

Wise has not produced much for DFS purposes this season, and most of the DFS community has soured on him as a play. His recent production has been poor, but that has caused his price to drop and he’s only $7,200 on DraftKings this week. Despite the clear drop in price, Wise is still projecting to be well under 10% owned and makes for a very interesting pivot option, especially with him coming off a decent week at the Honda where he closed with a solid final round and vaulted himself into the top 30. Wise has also made the cut at Bay Hill three times and finished 17th here last season. He is projecting as a solid value and makes for a great pivot option in this range.