The PGA Tour returns to the mainland this week for the third event of the season in The American Express. This event has been held at the TPC Stadium Course over the past five years and has a three-course rotation due to its Pro-Am status. The Pro-Am setup means players will all be paired with amateur golfers during the first three rounds and will play in foursomes (two pros and two amateurs). It makes for longer rounds but also means the course is set up extremely easy, so as to somewhat accommodate the non-professionals.
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The cut in this event is also unique, as it takes place after the third round on Saturday once all the pros have had a chance to play every course once. Only the top 65 and ties will get to play Saturday, which will make getting 6-for-6 through for DFS purposes extremely difficult given the larger field.
Don’t forget to check out the Stokastic PGA DFS projections, which has both scoring data and PGA DFS ownership projections. Stokastic PGA DFS projections come out on Monday and will be updated throughout the week. The smaller field means every edge will be significant.
PGA DFS Picks: 2023Â American Express Preview
The field this week takes a significant step up as the elites on the PGA return to get some reps in before meatier venues pop up over the next few months. Fifteen of the world’s top-50 golfers are in play this week, with the field being headlined by the likes of Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler and Patrick Cantlay.
This event generally doesn’t see this many top players, but this year there are plenty of big names, and several of them have either won this event or made a deep run in it before. The field this week will also be coming in with a variety of different forms. Many will have played in Hawaii once or even twice already (Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Brian Harman and a handful of others), but there will also be those for whom this week will be their first start (Rickie Fowler, Jason Day, Davis Riley, among others). That competitive form can be important, as 11 of the last 12 winners at this event had played in at least one of the two season-opening events in Hawaii in the year of their respective wins.
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Below are some of the top players in the field this week from a recent for perspective:
- Jon Rahm: Rahm opened his season in ideal fashion, posting a come-from-behind win at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. There’s no one else that’s been near Rahm’s level these past few months, and as a past winner, he’ll likely feel comfortable. That said, someone of his prowess is usually a better target at tougher venues like Torrey Pines, so fading his high price in DFS this week isn’t a poor idea — especially given the elite pivot options.
- Taylor Montgomery: Montgomery finished 12th last week in Hawaii. It was his seventh top-15 finish over his last eight starts. He continues to out-putt the field every week and should enjoy this easier venue given the fact he is sixth in birdie-or-better percentage over the last 50 rounds.
- Andrew Putnam: Putnam continued his great play last week, shooting a third-round 62 and landing in fourth place for the week. He was simply unconscious on the greens, gaining over 10 strokes putting in Waialae. Despite the tendency to be very putter-reliant, he is the prototypical mid-tier type of player worth targeting and has made 15 cuts in a row now.
- Joel Dahmen: Dahmen will be playing his first event of 2023, so there’s a little risk with him in terms of rust. Still, he finished off his 2022 with three finishes of ninth or better and generally should set up extremely well for some target golf in the desert given the way he’s hit his irons of late. He’s top 10 in birdies and opportunities gained in this deeper field over the last 24 rounds.
- Brian Harman: Harman again makes the bottom end of this list last week after he rallied on Sunday for a 5-under final round. He made his 11th cut in a row at the Sony and ranks third in total strokes gained total over the last six events. He’s been having trouble putting it all together, and last week his iron play and putting slipped. The rest of his game was solid, however, and seeing his irons improve on one of his favorites setups this week wouldn’t be shocking.
Field notes: A couple of other big names who will be in the field include Will Zalatoris, Tony Finau and Xander Schauffele. Schauffele will be extremely contentious for play in DFS or betting, as he’s coming off a back injury that forced him to withdraw at the year’s first event in Maui. He did get some treatment and looks ready to tee things up this week. This will also be the first time Taylor Pendrith and Davis Riley play in 2023, two players who came very close to winning last season. Sahith Theegala and Cameron Young are also looking for their first PGA win and will return to action this week after sitting out the Sony.
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The American Express Past Winners and Winners Stats
2022: Hudson Swafford -23
- Lead-in: 48/MC/35, (Swafford finished in 48th place at the Sony the week prior)
- Stats for week of win: SG:OTT -0.4/SG:APP 4.3/SG:ATG 0.9/SG:PUTT 6.4/SG:TTG 4.8
- Swafford won by gaining a ton of strokes with his putter and had a somewhat lackluster week off the tee — but wasn’t that terrible enough that it cost him a ton of strokes.
- Swafford was one of the best from 10 feet and in last year putting but gained strokes from all distances 20 feet or less.
2021: Si Woo Kim -21
- Lead in: 25/34/MC (Kim finished in 25th place at the Sony the week prior)
- Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 2.0/SG:APP 7.9/SG:ATG 1.7/SG:PUTT 3.6/SG:TTG 11.6
- Kim had a fantastic week ball striking the year he won and gained nearly 10 strokes in that area of the game alone.
- The rest of his game also fell into place, but he ranked near the top of proximity from 125 to 175 yards or longer.
2020: Andrew Landry -25
- Lead-in: MC/MC/MC, (Landry played at the Sony but recorded a MC in the week prior)
- Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 2.4/SG:APP 3.9/SG:ATG -1.8/SG:PUTT 3.6/SG:TTG 4.4
- Landry was a pure longshot winner and was coming into this event off the back of three straight missed cuts.
- Did very well off the tee, ranking second overall in fairways gained for the week and sixth in greens in regulation.
- Gained over a stroke putting between both distances.
Want to see who is trending as a strong play early? Check out Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.
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2023 American Express Course Preview
TPC Stadium (home course, played twice) 7,113 yards, par 72
La Quinta Country Club: 7,060 yards, par 72
Nicklaus Tournament 7,159 yards, par 72
Greens: Bermudagrass
Designer: Pete Dye
Similar Courses: PGA National, Harbour Town Golf Links, TPC Sawgrass
The Stadium Course sees a huge bundle of approach shots from 150 to 175 yards, and Si Woo Kim led in proximity from that yardage back in 2021. Players get themselves a ton of short birdie putts at the Stadium course as well. This is due to a variety of factors, including easier setups off the tee, a lack of rough and the four easier par 5’s in play. Putting from 5 to 10 feet and 10 to 15 feet is extremely important and has been key for several past winners, including last year’s champ Hudson Swafford.
This is a Pete Dye venue, so many holes force players to leave the driver in the bag, including some of the par 5’s. Solid driving is helpful, but massive power off the tee this week won’t be a focus.
The three courses are just more of the same: Shorter venues with smaller Bermuda greens that will yield lower scoring. Iron play and putting will again feature as some of the most primary statistics to target, with off-tee stats taking somewhat of a backseat. That doesn’t mean players with power can’t win, but if they’re not hitting their irons well — or gaining a lot of birdie chances — then there’s no point in rostering them just for their prowess off the tee.
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2023 American Express Recent Form Watch
Strokes Gained on Approach (last 50 Rounds)
- Will Zalatoris
- Tom Hoge
- Xander Schauffele
- Tom Kim
- Scottie Scheffler
Top Approach 150 to 175 yards (last 50 rounds)
- Joel Dahmen
- Tom Kim
- Will Zalatoris
- Justin Rose
- Justin Lower
Top Putters strokes gained 10 to 15 feet (last 50 rounds)
- Sung Kang
- Seung-yul Noh
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Taylor Montgomery
- Troy Merritt
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American Express Weather Forecast
Thursday a.m.: 45-50 F, winds 3-5 mph/0% chance of precipitation
Thursday p.m.: 50-55 F, winds 5-7 mph/0% chance of precipitation
Friday a.m.: 40-45 F, winds 5-10 mph/0% chance of precipitation
Friday p.m.: 60 F, winds 10 to 15 mph/0% chance of precipitation
The weather is something to watch this week. Very cold temperatures are expected for this region, with morning highs being around 45 to 50 degrees Fahrenheit the first two days. Wind won’t be that prevalent Thursday but could be worse on Friday. It’s possible having players on an easier course on Friday — or teeing off early that day — will be an advantage.
2023 American Express Early Betting Targets and DFS Picks
Cameron Young | BetMGM Outright
Young looks like a great target who could finally breakthrough for that elusive first win. He comes off a decent enough start in Maui, where he was his usual dominant self off the tee. While that skillset may not be immensely helpful this week, this event being an outright birdie-fest doesn’t hurt Young. He’s posted some of his best results in lower-scoring tournaments and was also a solid third at the RBC Heritage on a much tighter Pete Dye design last season.
This will be his second time around this track, and he is top 25 in strokes gained putting from 10 to 15 feet and 5 to 10 feet over the last 50 rounds — as well as 19th in proximity from 150 to 175 yards. He’s a great player to jump on early.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout | BetMGM Outright
Nothing went right last week for Bezuidenhout, who bowed out of the Sony Open early after opening with rounds of 74 and 73. The good news this week is that his performance there will certainly drive up his betting numbers for this week and make him a lower-owned option in DFS. Bezuidenhout had a couple of top finishes over the fall/early winter and is one of the best putters on tour, ranking third in strokes gained putting from 10 to 15 feet over the last 50 rounds.
His irons can come and go, but if he rebounds with that part of his game, he can sink enough putts to get to 20 under. Despite the poor opener, he’s a very solid player who should gain confidence from seeing his Presidents Cup teammate take it down last week.
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